dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah just not in the cards for us...I hope it goes far north of us. Don't want rain or ice at this point 1st time I can actually throw in the towel this far out.. And more than likely wont see another monster storm this year to have a shot at.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ready for spring? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah just not in the cards for us...I hope it goes far north of us. Don't want rain or ice at this point Where was the northwest movement last week when we needed it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Where was the northwest movement last week when we needed it? LOL it's anything to screw us this winter period.. I hate my location for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Where was the northwest movement last week when we needed it? I hear ya man. In the pa thread somebody mentioned how we often get missed on the big ones. A big all snow event is pretty rare in and of itself. Combine that with our location and climo,it's no wonder why we get excited about the possibility of a big event. It is definitely frustrating no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 CLE and BUF siding with the GFS at this point. Most importantly its good to see BUF favoring that solution. Obviously the track is far from resolved. Looks like we will be smelling the rain though. CLE MID WEEK LOOKS UGLY. MODELS BOTH DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERTEXAS ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVE IT ACROSS OHIO DURING THE DAYWEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING AND TRACK STILL IN DOUBT. FOR NOW ECMWF ISFASTER AND TRACKS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO...WHILE GFS A LITTLESLOWER AND TRACKS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO. EITHER WAY WILLSEE SOME HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AT LEAST ACHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE...NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NW PA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS STRONG AS THE HIGH GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...AT LEAST FOR NOW. BUF MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A MAJOR STORM LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUES TO NEAR CINCI BY EARLY WED. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM TRANSFERS TO THE COAST...BUT BOTH GFS AND EC DELAY THIS PROCESS AND KEEP THE "PRIMARY" LOW THE MAIN PLAYER UP INTO EASTERN OHIO...WITH ITS POTENT JET STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A SLUG OF 0.5 TO 1INCH QPF UP ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NY FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 18Z WED. EC HAS BEEN ON THE HEAVIER SIDE WITH A STRIP OVER VERY HEAVY QPF...1-1.5 INCH...FROM CHI TO DET TO YYZ AND BUF...BUT GFS LOOK MORE REALISTIC WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY WARM ADVECTION SNOW WEDMORNING...THEN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT AS A DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO WHILE COASTAL GETS GOING LATER WED AND WED EVE...THEN SOME WRAPAROUND SWINGS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA WED NT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ECMWF taunting me... 1.35-1.4" around TOL, .8" snow and .6" ice for FDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It sucks that we get it missed to the south AND north, but I'll take the Euro if it means no devastating ice storm. I guess someone still gets it though and that's not something you wanta wish on anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Unreal!!!!! Calling for a high of 43 now for wednesday.. ..See ya!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Unreal!!!!! Calling for a high of 43 now for wednesday.. ..See ya!! I was actually relieved to see that....the heavy ice storm must be going north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ECMWF taunting me... 1.35-1.4" around TOL, .8" snow and .6" ice for FDY. You are sitting pretty good in the NW part of the state. Good to see the 06 models didn't come any further north. Nice dump across all of the far northern tier. There is going to be an incredibly fine line between the heavy snow and slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You are sitting pretty good in the NW part of the state. Good to see the 06 models didn't come any further north. Nice dump across all of the far northern tier. There is going to be an incredibly fine line between the heavy snow and slop. And I've been flirting back and forth with that line for days. 2M's are fine... but how warm 850's get could kill me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And I've been flirting back and forth with that line for days. 2M's are fine... but how warm 850's get could kill me. 12z NAM looks ugly for all of OH. Would have to depend on the front end if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z NAM looks ugly for all of OH. Would have to depend on the front end if that verified. Twisterdata, Accupro, and Raleigh all have 18"+ in that small portion of NWOH... it's ECMWF like but warmer. Hopefully rest of this suite/0z suite can bring some better news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Monday Night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet, becoming all freezing rain after 3am. Low around 24. East wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday: Freezing rain. High near 30. Northeast wind between 9 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night: Freezing rain before 10pm, then rain or freezing rain between 10pm and midnight, then rain after midnight. Low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. This is what I get to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 CLE still calling for all snow... no HWO or WSW/Ice Storm Watch/Warning at all. That's incredibly frustrating, given that some areas of the CWA (Toledo) will see a lot of snow (1st or second highest all time) and some of the area could see a lot of FrzRain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeSam Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That high will be overnight. Temps will fall and we'll go back to some back end snow during the day on Wed. Unreal!!!!! Calling for a high of 43 now for wednesday.. ..See ya!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 CLE still calling for all snow... no HWO or WSW/Ice Storm Watch/Warning at all. That's incredibly frustrating, given that some areas of the CWA (Toledo) will see a lot of snow (1st or second highest all time) and some of the area could see a lot of FrzRain. Because Toledo is CLE's ugly cousin They will probably put up a watches later today. I assume they are waiting for the 12z models to come out. Be interesting to see what the GFS and Euro come up with. NAM shows alot of ice along the lakeshore... which is very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Good to see the HPC is not liking the NAM. Whewww. HPC ..UPPER LOW MOVING FROM N. CA TO THE S. PLAINS AND OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD... ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING TX TO THE OH VALLEY TUE-WED... THE NAM SHOWS SUSPICIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION CROSSING CALIFORNIA TODAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. THUS...ITS SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IS SERIOUSLY QUESTIONED UNTIL CONFIRMED BY NEW GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT SHOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 damn....i was out all yesterday was hoping for a turn or trend in the right direction. Blah. Haven't looked at all the models but apparent this sucker is gonna do something no storm has done in quite awhile and cut north over us. Im just wondering what kind of initial waa thump we can expect and in what form. Models seem to want to bring pretty heavy stuff initially up the i-70 corridor before the baroclinic zone lifts north and the storm comes up and rains on us. I'll be a good loser and throw a congrats to the chicago...detroit...Harry crowd! They gonna get POUNDED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We'll see what the GFS does here very soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 WTF? Accuwx forecast for here in Toledo... calling for up 34" of snow. Monday night Cold with 1-3 inches of snow. Low 13. NE 8 mph gusting to 11. Tuesday Cloudy, breezy and cold with a little snow, accumulating up to an additional inch. High 22. NE 14 mph gusting to 29. Tuesday night Blizzard conditions with strong winds, low visibility and heavy snow, accumulating 1-2 feet. Low 16. NNE 29 mph gusting to 48. Wednesday Windy with snow, accumulating an additional 3-6 inches. High 23. N 18 mph gusting to 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We'll see what the GFS does here very soon.... looking at 42 it might be even further nw with the low. Has a bit more of a neg tilt on the trough then 6z yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 looking at 42 it might be even further nw with the low. Has a bit more of a neg tilt on the trough then 6z yikes GFS still colder than the NAM though through 72. 2m temps look close for a lot of people. GFS also seems to show high pressure better to the North of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS caved Still not without frozen precip in CMH: TUE 06Z 01-FEB -3.4 0.7 1023 94 99 0.12 558 540 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -4.3 2.3 1022 97 77 0.11 558 541 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -1.2 3.5 1020 96 87 0.02 559 543 WED 00Z 02-FEB 0.1 3.2 1015 100 100 0.37 558 546 WED 06Z 02-FEB 1.1 3.7 1006 100 100 0.54 555 550 WED 12Z 02-FEB 4.2 3.4 998 100 20 0.32 541 543 WED 18Z 02-FEB -1.5 -11.1 1005 82 30 0.02 535 531 THU 00Z 03-FEB -4.8 -12.6 1012 92 95 0.04 536 526 THU 06Z 03-FEB -6.8 -14.1 1023 90 85 0.01 541 524 Looks like around .2" of ice first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS caved Still not without frozen precip in CMH: TUE 06Z 01-FEB -3.4 0.7 1023 94 99 0.12 558 540 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -4.3 2.3 1022 97 77 0.11 558 541 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -1.2 3.5 1020 96 87 0.02 559 543 WED 00Z 02-FEB 0.1 3.2 1015 100 100 0.37 558 546 WED 06Z 02-FEB 1.1 3.7 1006 100 100 0.54 555 550 WED 12Z 02-FEB 4.2 3.4 998 100 20 0.32 541 543 WED 18Z 02-FEB -1.5 -11.1 1005 82 30 0.02 535 531 THU 00Z 03-FEB -4.8 -12.6 1012 92 95 0.04 536 526 THU 06Z 03-FEB -6.8 -14.1 1023 90 85 0.01 541 524 Looks like around .2" of ice first. Mike, where are you getting those text files at? I use Earl's site but it takes forever. I'm curious what the GFS shows for DAY and MIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Mike, where are you getting those text files at? I use Earl's site but it takes forever. I'm curious what the GFS shows for DAY and MIE. That is off of accuweather pro. DAY TUE 00Z 01-FEB -4.7 -0.6 1025 95 59 0.00 558 539 TUE 06Z 01-FEB -3.3 1.4 1023 96 99 0.21 558 540 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -4.8 3.2 1022 98 80 0.06 558 541 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -2.5 3.0 1019 98 87 0.08 558 543 WED 00Z 02-FEB 0.3 2.3 1014 100 100 0.58 557 546 WED 06Z 02-FEB 1.3 3.5 1004 100 100 0.64 553 550 WED 12Z 02-FEB 2.3 -0.6 998 99 24 0.25 538 540 WED 18Z 02-FEB -3.2 -11.7 1005 90 33 0.02 534 530 THU 00Z 03-FEB -6.5 -12.8 1015 96 97 0.04 537 525 THU 06Z 03-FEB -9.2 -13.6 1026 96 85 0.01 542 522 MIE TUE 00Z 01-FEB -6.0 -1.3 1026 97 86 0.00 557 537 TUE 06Z 01-FEB -5.0 0.5 1024 97 99 0.16 556 538 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -6.6 1.4 1023 98 78 0.09 556 538 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -4.0 0.5 1020 97 91 0.04 556 541 WED 00Z 02-FEB -2.0 0.9 1014 99 100 0.82 555 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB -1.1 2.5 1002 99 100 0.59 548 546 WED 12Z 02-FEB -1.0 -0.6 998 99 51 0.24 535 537 WED 18Z 02-FEB -5.9 -10.3 1005 96 81 0.04 532 528 THU 00Z 03-FEB -7.1 -13.8 1018 98 97 0.05 537 523 THU 06Z 03-FEB -11.7 -13.9 1027 99 91 0.01 542 521 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Good to see the HPC is not liking the NAM. Whewww. HPC ..UPPER LOW MOVING FROM N. CA TO THE S. PLAINS AND OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD... ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING TX TO THE OH VALLEY TUE-WED... THE NAM SHOWS SUSPICIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION CROSSING CALIFORNIA TODAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. THUS...ITS SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IS SERIOUSLY QUESTIONED UNTIL CONFIRMED BY NEW GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT SHOW Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the trend the past few days has not been in our favor for significant snows. The potential for ice looks serious, but it could be a big sleet storm. I'm not familiar with sleet or sleet storms, but would 3/4 to an inch of sleet even be that big of a deal? It's once we start talking freezing rain that I get worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the trend the past few days has not been in our favor for significant snows. The potential for ice looks serious, but it could be a big sleet storm. I'm not familiar with sleet or sleet storms, but would 3/4 to an inch of sleet even be that big of a deal? It's once we start talking freezing rain that I get worried. sleet is the biggest waste of frozen qpf. We had a sleet storm here in cmh back in the early mid 90s. It was like 15 degrees and heavy sleet for 6+ hours. Think of it as 1:1 liquid frozen ratio ..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 sleet is the biggest waste of frozen qpf. We had a sleet storm here in cmh back in the early mid 90s. It was like 15 degrees and heavy sleet for 6+ hours. Think of it as 1:1 liquid frozen ratio ..lol It's actually closer to 2:1, but yes, I get your point there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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