wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Woo, go GEM!! Snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Euro looks to track this baby through South Central Ohio. Maybe a little bit SE of the last run, I can deal with this as long as its not going NW lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Euro looks to track this baby through South Central Ohio. Maybe a little bit SE of the last run, I can deal with this as long as its not going NW lol. looks a little south to me. Not a lot but a tad. The 0z took the low straight across central OH whereas the 12z takes it through South central OH. Gotta hope the ggem op pulls the coop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 God it is warm though... WED 06Z 02-FEB 1.9 1.9 1006 95 89 0.41 552 548 WED 12Z 02-FEB 7.2 0.6 997 94 21 0.34 539 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Im just happy the Euro didn't jog way NW. This runs colder btw as FDY is basically all snow where as last run it was mostly ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I just hope the NW trend is over, we need SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 looks a little south to me. Not a lot but a tad. The 0z took the low straight across central OH whereas the 12z takes it through South central OH. Gotta hope the ggem op pulls the coop. Sorry, been out of the loop. What did ggem show here? All snow? If this Euro run is south, it could be a slight trend, very slight, but nonetheless. I think the 0z Euro was even a little south of yesterday's 12z wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 TOL all snow and CLE mostly snow....nasty mixing issues south this is going to shutdown parts of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sorry, been out of the loop. What did ggem show here? All snow? If this Euro run is south, it could be a slight trend, very slight, but nonetheless. I think the 0z Euro was even a little south of yesterday's 12z wasn't it? It was very slight. The gem took the low to NC So yes it was a pounding with snow.. LOL.. Euro isnt budging though.. Still 4 days out, but Im worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It was very slight. The gem took the low to NC So yes it was a pounding with snow.. LOL.. Euro isnt budging though.. Still 4 days out, but Im worried. Got ya! Thx. All together now, OH CANADA, MY (I don't know the words).... Dill, can you confirm if last night's 0z euro was slightly south of yesterday's 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Got ya! Thx. All together now, OH CANADA, MY (I don't know the words).... Dill, can you confirm if last night's 0z euro was slightly south of yesterday's 12z? NO. Once the new 12z updates the old one is gone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ice storms are pretty rare in CLE. We've had some ice but nothing significant. It's usually snow or rain... no in between. The area from MFD south tends to see more ice. It's good to see the consistency of the GFS... if the euro was on board I'd be a lot more comfortable. But I'm happy not being in the bullseye this far out... that usually ends in disappointment. A track south of river then up to W/Central PA would be ideal. Still think a SE movement is coming. We can't afford any more shift at all to the NW. The general track that the Euro and GFS advertise is fairly typical IMO. It's pretty common for these storms to dump heavy snows quite a bit north and west of Dayton up through NE Ohio with mixing concerns from Akron/Canton southward. Those snow maps clearly show how close Cuyahoga County is to mixing on the GFS. Look at this way, this storm is 90 hours out. No track stays put for that long. I'm sure there'll be some notable shifts as we move forward. But the last thing I want is a northwest shift that causes a huge ice storm here. I can't even picture the madness over that type of ice event which most here have never experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That's so funny! I hope you know everyone is joking around and messing around. Go ahead and bash the posters in a dif. thread though. I would actually find it quite funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 God it is warm though... WED 06Z 02-FEB 1.9 1.9 1006 95 89 0.41 552 548 WED 12Z 02-FEB 7.2 0.6 997 94 21 0.34 539 542 That's a bit suspect to me if the low stays south of us. I can see us into the 33-35 range, but 40s? No way, we'll need some serious south winds for that. Even 33-35 for a few hours would still have significant ice before that, but not as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am hoping that the southern energy slows down and forces the low further south for a time before it shoots north. Say no to ice period. Stuff is terrible as I remember from December 2004 and where I live now, west central ohio, was hit hard in 2005. Please nothing like December 2004-anything but that. Snow,rain, just anything but an icestorm. Sitting around in the living room as the transformers blew with that weird blue light and buzzing sound, and wondering if the trees were going to fall on the house or in the yards as they cracked under the ice with a sound like a rifle shot! *shudders* Great memories...uh..not so much. Let Chicago, etc. get three feet of snow if it means we do not get ice like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 LOL spot forecast has me with snow changing to zr and sleet. With highs of 29 on Tuesday and 31 wednesday.. Sick. Just sick lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 LOL spot forecast has me with snow changing to zr and sleet. With highs of 29 on Tuesday and 31 wednesday.. Sick. Just sick lol. Are you ready to throw in the towel on this one? Think the models are overplaying the temps at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Are you ready to throw in the towel on this one? Think the models are overplaying the temps at all? right now my biggest concern is the ice storm that is looking apprent.. Not throwing in the towel yet, as we have the gem and gfs more on our side. a slight south shift on the gfs would give us all snow in central OH, while the gem does give all snow.. here is my preliminary thoughts.. I will update through the weekend on what I believe will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 right now my biggest concern is the ice storm that is looking apprent.. Not throwing in the towel yet, as we have the gem and gfs more on our side. a slight south shift on the gfs would give us all snow in central OH, while the gem does give all snow.. here is my preliminary thoughts.. I will update through the weekend on what I believe will happen. Well I'm with you, I'd rather have snow or rain. Ice can be crippling and is extremely dangerous. It seems that with these types of setups, the powerful low just throws too much warm air out ahead of it. The only good thing is that I would think that it isn't going to go much NW from here. If anything, I would expect a small SE trend but it may not be enough to keep us in the snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Still 84+ hours out so a change in track is likely. Question is, does it go NW to keep us rain or pull a bit SE to give us more snow/sleet instead of frz rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Still 84+ hours out so a change in track is likely. Question is, does it go NW to keep us rain or pull a bit SE to give us more snow/sleet instead of frz rain? well the euro would have to shift 200 miles to put us in snow lol.. and the gfs takes the low through KY but still gives us zr. Gem gave us all snow but took the low through southern KY over to NC so that is the track we need.. So we are going to need a pretty significant change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 well the euro would have to shift 200 miles to put us in snow lol.. and the gfs takes the low through KY but still gives us zr. Gem gave us all snow but took the low through southern KY over to NC so that is the track we need.. So we are going to need a pretty significant change. Any observations from the 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 okay what is with HPC? They are flopping like fish out of water.. ...AFTERNOON UPDATE... NEW 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER DAY 4 WED THAN PRIOR RUNS AND OTHER MODELS AND ITS ENS MEAN. 12Z CMC/UKMET AND ENS MEANS REMAIN PREFERRED. NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON FINALS FROM PRIOR HPC PRELIM PROGS. EXPECT A BROAD HEAVY SNOW SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. HEAVY RAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Any observations from the 18z NAM? Its going SE. Significantly SE. Looks similar to the GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 here is round 1 for cmh. TUE 06Z 01-FEB -4.7 0.9 1024 92 99 0.04 557 538 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -4.8 1.1 1024 96 98 0.22 558 539 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -3.3 2.5 1023 94 77 0.01 559 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think the writing is on the wall for central OH...either it is an epic ice storm or a slop storm. I'm rooting for slop or all rain now. An ice storm would be the worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think the writing is on the wall for central OH...either it is an epic ice storm or a slop storm. I'm rooting for slop or all rain now. An ice storm would be the worst case scenario. Yea. Towel is in hand. I'm tossing it officially at 0z. Congrats to the cleveland folks though. Enjoy your snow.. Without a south shift at 0z all we will have to hold on to is the gem and jma lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I wouldnt congratulate CLE so fast, GFS has 5 inches of snow and lots of ice..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I wouldnt congratulate CLE so fast, GFS has 5 inches of snow and lots of ice..... I expect to see a small se trend with models before all is said and done. Should be enough to put CLE all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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