dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 blow torch certainly is. that would be the warmest we've been in 2 months it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 well right now the euro is the outlier with the temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Euro solution doesn't fit the winter pattern at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Euro solution doesn't fit the winter pattern at all. Certainly doesnt. I find it hard to believe, but typically the euro sets the trend, and I hope that isnt it.. But I would rather have that then ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I can live with this Euro run. Puts my college location in 15+ inches of snow and my home on the border, its the only model showing temps this warm as well so I'll go to bed happy. Lets hope the next run jogs SE for the Central Ohio folk. Night everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I can live with this Euro run. Puts my college location in 15+ inches of snow and my home on the border, its the only model showing temps this warm as well so I'll go to bed happy. Lets hope the next run jogs SE for the Central Ohio folk. Night everyone. where is your college location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Bowling Green, but im heading home Thursday evening so I'd like to see snow imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Euro solution doesn't fit the winter pattern at all. We sort of lost the blocking though so I'm wondering if the previous couple months even apply.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Bowling Green, but im heading home Thursday evening so I'd like to see snow imby TUE 12Z 01-FEB -7.9 -2.7 1025 85 97 0.13 555 536 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -6.2 -0.9 1023 87 86 0.10 556 538 WED 00Z 02-FEB -5.9 -0.3 1019 89 93 0.06 554 539 WED 06Z 02-FEB -4.5 -0.3 1009 91 88 0.57 549 541 WED 12Z 02-FEB -3.8 -0.7 1001 91 43 0.65 539 538 close to zr for the bulk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 TOL stays all snow and FDY has FZR, I'm a little closer to TOL than Findley so I will be cuttin it very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 We sort of lost the blocking though so I'm wondering if the previous couple months even apply.... yea. I hope it is just a blip. If 12z doesnt come south some I may go get my towel to get ready to throw during 0z. Outlier or not. Usually when the euro sets into a trend it dont come back.. Now if all other guidence moves south, then I'll wait til 12z sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So frustrating when you have the precip and then the temps fall thru. Been burned many times in PIT where decent storms were forecasted just to get thwarted by warm temps. I hope this is just an outlier. Never thought I'd be hoping for a more SE solution, lol, but this is one scenario where it would be helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Amazing how we go from always being too far north to suddenly not north enough. That's the OV for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Blah... Findlay almost all ice... over 1.3" with 2m's below freezing and 5" of snow. Route 6 and north in NWOH win that... 15"+ of snow if taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Amazing how we go from always being too far north to suddenly not north enough. That's the OV for ya Not gonna get ansy yet. The other models were a step in the right direction.. remember the euro showed. Lakes cutter, then went to suppressed, now back to a north solution. Only one way to go. South..... I hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am hoping that the southern energy slows down and forces the low further south for a time before it shoots north. Say no to ice period. Stuff is terrible as I remember from December 2004 and where I live now, west central ohio, was hit hard in 2005. I'm hoping the euro follows the gfs trend of going south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah gotta admit the rain would be a blessing over an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Meh, I would rather it trend "east" more than "south". A pure runner would be nice. East does no good? The thing goes to indy then to cmh. We need that south Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 PIT .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... BLEND OF RECENT ECMWF, GFS, AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW MEXICO, THAT WILL DEVELOP A STRONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREFER THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION THAT PROVIDES A MORE NORTHERLY LOW CENTER TRACK AND WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE INITIAL WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK SUBFREEZING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS, EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX, SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TO POSSIBLY RAIN, SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WITH ICE CAN BE EXTEND FOR SEVERAL HOURS, AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CAN BE MORE THAN 0.50 INCHES PER RECENT HPC GUIDANCE, NAEFS, ECMWF, AND GEFS MODEL OUTPUT. EXPECT A CHILL DOWN TO TEMPERATURE VALUES AT LEAST 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WAKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BASED ON GFS MOS AND NAEFS MEDIAN VALUES. POST SYSTEM SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE LIMITED NOW THAT LAKE ERIE IS FROZEN, ALTHOUGH LAKE HURON STILL HAS CONSIDERABLE OPEN WATER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 06 GFS and NAM... temps don't get above 24 at CLE. Not sure what last night euro showed. Big temp gradient across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 06 GFS and NAM... temps don't get above 24 at CLE. Not sure what last night euro showed. Big temp gradient across the state. The consistency of the GFS over the past 5 runs has been pretty good. How common are ice storms around Cleveland? I can't remember anything around here, seems they tend to set up in the US 30 and south corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow. It's looking more and more like a major ice storm with each model run.. I'm about to root for a hard cutter. Id rather have plain rain.. This will be the farthest out models have had agreement this winter if things don't shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Still on the cusp per GFS for major snow storm across northern and western Ohio. Too bad this is 90 hours out and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Still on the cusp per GFS for major snow storm across northern and western Ohio. Too bad this is 90 hours out and the GFS. Yea. Euro at least would be rain.. Id rather have that than the crippling ice storm the gfs is showing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GFS crushes Ohio from about Mansfield North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GFS crushes Ohio from about Mansfield North. Yea I need it to come south.. and LOL at the other thread. A different person starts it, they go nuts because of superstition and then the ggem comes in giving OH a huge snowstorm. I'm gonna laugh so hard if euro comes in south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That's so funny! I hope you know everyone is joking around and messing around. Go ahead and bash the posters in a dif. thread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I mentioned in the other thread that I have not seen an ice storm like the one being progged...I remember one that hit oklahoma a few years ago with some areas getting over 2" of ice! They were without power for quite awhile from what I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 That's so funny! I hope you know everyone is joking around and messing around. Go ahead and bash the posters in a dif. thread though. Hmm didn't know I bashed anyone.. Sorry I'm rooting against your storm. I want that sucker to track just like the ggem shows it, just like you want it to track so you get snow. And sorry but there was 3 pages of complaining that he started it, I don't think some of them were joking. But no bashing here.. now back to the weather.. Armygreens: yes we need what the gem is showing. I DO NOT want an icestorm like the gfs is advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The consistency of the GFS over the past 5 runs has been pretty good. How common are ice storms around Cleveland? I can't remember anything around here, seems they tend to set up in the US 30 and south corridor. Ice storms are pretty rare in CLE. We've had some ice but nothing significant. It's usually snow or rain... no in between. The area from MFD south tends to see more ice. It's good to see the consistency of the GFS... if the euro was on board I'd be a lot more comfortable. But I'm happy not being in the bullseye this far out... that usually ends in disappointment. A track south of river then up to W/Central PA would be ideal. Still think a SE movement is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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