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OV Winter Storm Threat for February 2-3


dilly84

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my theory on why we stayed so cold is that, looking at unisys, an HP over the northern great lakes actually strengthened. Probably kept winds out of the northeast longer

Lots of factors involved in keeping us below freezing... Really strong cold conveyor, trajectory of the surface low / low level warm air, timing. It is rare for CMH to see all of these factors come together for an icing event of this magnitude.

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I wonder if that snow around St. Louis will eventually wrap back towards us. Wraparound is rarely good here, but who knows.

was wondering the same thing earlier. Hope it does, it'd at least look nice having a couple inches on the trees with all that ice :)

Both the nam and gfs give between .10 - .15 with cold cold temps so could pick up 2-3 inches back side snow.

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Speaking of the warmth I think its very believable. Were simply due for a thaw which we have not had since the 1-2 day thaw around New Years. The rest of the winter has been snowy and below average. When is the last time in a winter have we been this cold consistently? I think the midwest could get a severe weather outbreak before the cold snaps back late February-March and something tells me but call me stupid but the OV could be in for an 08 type March snowstorm. :weight_lift: The road I feel leads to that after a two week warm stretch...

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Just looked at the gfs. Has long period of snow over the weekend with a bigger shot of a storm next tuesday

SAT 06Z 05-FEB -2.1 -3.9 1013 79 100 0.02 551 540

SAT 12Z 05-FEB -2.4 -2.4 1007 98 100 0.17 542 536

SAT 18Z 05-FEB 0.3 -4.4 1006 94 94 0.12 536 531

SUN 00Z 06-FEB -1.1 -7.8 1009 95 74 0.01 540 533

SUN 06Z 06-FEB -1.5 -7.5 1010 98 24 0.01 541 533

SUN 12Z 06-FEB -1.5 -8.1 1011 99 29 0.01 539 530

SUN 18Z 06-FEB 1.2 -5.4 1011 97 96 0.02 538 529

MON 00Z 07-FEB 0.6 -5.1 1013 99 82 0.02 540 529

MON 06Z 07-FEB 0.2 -8.0 1016 98 61 0.02 540 528

MON 12Z 07-FEB -4.2 -7.5 1020 98 61 0.00 542 526

MON 18Z 07-FEB 1.0 -6.9 1021 89 57 0.01 547 530

TUE 00Z 08-FEB -1.1 -5.3 1021 96 98 0.01 548 531

TUE 06Z 08-FEB -2.6 -4.7 1017 98 99 0.13 546 533

TUE 12Z 08-FEB -4.4 -7.4 1012 98 99 0.31 541 532

TUE 18Z 08-FEB -4.4 -13.4 1015 93 97 0.09 533 522

WED 00Z 09-FEB -10.4 -17.6 1016 98 34 0.01 523 511

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GFS is coming around and the EURO is flip flopping. NAM has it at 84hr.....

Yea seen that just now. I forgot about the models earlier. Too busy with the power going out lol.. Either way dont look like anything too big. Here is next tuesday for LEX, but Id think if it came much further north we'd be fight ptype issues again

MON 12Z 07-FEB 0.5 -4.3 1021 99 53 0.01 550 533

MON 18Z 07-FEB 3.9 -2.5 1022 91 89 0.01 552 535

TUE 00Z 08-FEB 2.4 -1.1 1019 97 98 0.04 553 537

TUE 06Z 08-FEB -0.3 0.3 1013 98 97 0.22 550 540

TUE 12Z 08-FEB -5.9 -7.6 1017 98 99 0.41 545 532

TUE 18Z 08-FEB -8.0 -12.2 1021 95 55 0.05 538 522

WED 00Z 09-FEB -13.9 -15.1 1022 98 16 0.01 529 513

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Based off of radar, I switched to plain rain here. Wonder if it'll help melt it off the lines and trees before the wind comes. I am doubtful. I am betting that as the temps are just above freezing it will still freeze onto the lines and trees. Rain isnt going to be warm enough to melt it I don't think.

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