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OV Winter Storm Threat for February 2-3


dilly84

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Who am I gonna sue myself? And did you know, which I am positive since I owned a pzza shop, If you clear your lot of and someone falls on it, you are liable. If you dont clean it and they fall, you are not liable ;)

lol...i was messing with you.

but yes, i've heard that. That's my excuse i give my wife for not shoveling the public walk out front

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I am heading south on 23 from Marion in about 10 minutes...see how long it takes me to get to Delaware.

The main roads might be somewhat okay since they've been treated and temps aren't ridiculously low. I'd be most concerned about bridges/overpasses, especially if the temp drops lower.

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Just picked up my son from the rec center in westerville. I was surprised the roads are icing up again. Chris Bradley's forecast was on and he says up to .25 ice then changing to rain around 10pm.

Glad there's so much consistency :arrowhead: Was that on the radio? If so, that might have been this morning's forecast, pretty close to what ILN was calling for.

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The main roads might be somewhat okay since they've been treated and temps aren't ridiculously low. I'd be most concerned about bridges/overpasses, especially if the temp drops lower.

I don't think the roads are going to be the biggest impact of this storm. It's going to come down to how much ice accumulates on the trees and power lines and then how quickly the winds start picking up. The trees are popping and cracking right now. What's going to happen later?

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Glad there's so much consistency :arrowhead: Was that on the radio? If so, that might have been this morning's forecast, pretty close to what ILN was calling for.

5 hrs from now that massive slug of moisture will almost be thru. The only thing i can think of is they are saying that's our .25 ice, then precip lightens and the temps warm.....

well ganahls up...lets see what he says

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Mesoscale Discussion 74 < Previous MD mcd0074.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0354 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IND...NRN/CNTRL OH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 012154Z - 020300Z

MDT TO HVY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DEEP/MOIST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF THE

INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SUPPORT

THE EWD SHIFT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CNTRL

IND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY CROSSING INTO OH BY 00Z.

WITH SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...MIXED PRECIPITATION

TYPES WILL OCCUR.

THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND

SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KYNG TO KHUF...WHERE RATES AOA 0.2 INCHES PER

HOUR WILL OCCUR PER 19Z HRRR RUN. FARTHER NORTH...RUC FORECAST

SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM LAYER

/AOB 3C/ SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET...WITH SNOW ACROSS

FAR NW OH AND NE IND. AS LOW-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES...THE FREEZING RAIN

AREA WILL SHIFT NWD THIS EVENING.

..COHEN/ROGERS.. 02/01/2011

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...

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were you able to catch bradley? ganahl should be coming up here shortly

Yeah, said most of the heavy ice will be basically Delaware north and west. Maybe 1/4" here but temps will rise tonight and change things to rain with temps near 40 by morning. Then a change back to snow showers. Seems basically like the NWS forecast from early this morning. I am less and less convinced that this is what will actually happen.

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Ganahl

.5 i-70

1" north of that

says we will have to changeover because ultimately the low will turns winds southeast as it approaches. The only thing i don't understand is why that isn't happening already further west. Unless the low is going to make a curve more northeast

Could the cold just be winning??

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it just seems to me that if the low stays on the same trajectory in its sw to ne direciton, the precip type areas shouldn't really change that much unless the low rapidly stregthens....but it's suppose to weaken and occlude.

I would agree with that. Throw in the fast movement of the system and there may not be enough time to changeover anyway.

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