dilly84 Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 So far this has been a low impact event. Most roads were cleared by morning rush and now just a typical winter afternoon. From the PNS appears that 4-5" was the typical spread across the area. Im doubtful we'll get more than 2 or 3 inches of snow from this by tomorrow. You won't have missed much snow at all. Hard to say how the ice will play out, but I bet we go above 32 for several hours. Warm always wins over cold. However temps will crater tomorrow leaving a thick glacier base. SO I take it youre thinking it will be zr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So far this has been a low impact event. Most roads were cleared by morning rush and now just a typical winter afternoon. From the PNS appears that 4-5" was the typical spread across the area. Im doubtful we'll get more than 2 or 3 inches of snow from this by tomorrow. You won't have missed much snow at all. Hard to say how the ice will play out, but I bet we go above 32 for several hours. Warm always wins over cold. However temps will crater tomorrow leaving a thick glacier base. Yeah... I'm not expecting a big event anywhere in Ohio out of this. The far northwest will probably do best -- but even there just 3-5 inches of slop I suspect. Elsewhere an inch or less of snow. I'm not too enthused on icing potential either. There will be a few to several hours of moderate freezing rain, but by morning all will be melting with just rain and temps in the mid to upper 30s northern Ohio (except far NW where temps should stay at or below 30), 40s in central, southern Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SO I take it youre thinking it will be zr? Yeah, sleet and zr. Don't think there'll be much more snow here at all. The freezing line always makes it to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah... I'm not expecting a big event anywhere in Ohio out of this. The far northwest will probably do best -- but even there just 3-5 inches of slop I suspect. Elsewhere an inch or less of snow. I'm not too enthused on icing potential either. There will be a few to several hours of moderate freezing rain, but by morning all will be melting with just rain and temps in the mid to upper 30s northern Ohio (except far NW where temps should stay at or below 30), 40s in central, southern Ohio. I think CLE will get up to 37 or 38 tomorrow morning. But by then, the ice damage might have already wreaked havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So far this has been a low impact event. Most roads were cleared by morning rush and now just a typical winter afternoon. From the PNS appears that 4-5" was the typical spread across the area. Im doubtful we'll get more than 2 or 3 inches of snow from this by tomorrow. You won't have missed much snow at all. Hard to say how the ice will play out, but I bet we go above 32 for several hours. Warm always wins over cold. However temps will crater tomorrow leaving a thick glacier base. I still think the cold air will hold on longer than expected with the frozen lake. This may be a case where the warm air penetrates to CLE then cuts two counties east... with cold to the E and W. Just need a more easterly movement to the storm. It's going to be race between the warm air spreading north and the storm occluding to the east. The storm itself is pretty fast mover so that should help. Who knows though. Looks like precip is starting to expand on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My forecast. This will be a widespread icestorm for Ohio except for far nw areas where snow and sleet may rule and the southeastern 1/3rd where waa will rule. I'm basing this off of current radar, obs, and forecasted timing and arrival of precip and waa. Zone B: Advisory type event. I think there might be a couple hours of freezing rain at the onset with temps alread near 32. A quick warm up and basically not a big event. Zone A: Significant Icestorm. .5+ ice. Even though this area will warm above freezing, I think most of the precip will be done by that time. Depending on how long we sit in a dryslot before winds kick in and caa, will depend just how bad it could get. Obviously the closer to zone B, the less likely you would be to experience severe effects. crippler: Probably more towards the west on this. Air temp will be the coldest but may still have less sleet mixing in. CAA pivots in relatively quickly shutting off the above freezing temps relatively quickly.....especially farther west. I think INDY-Richmond--akron line is axis of worst icing. Also, this could be a situation where DUBLIN and GROVEPORT could be two different worlds tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I hope I am wrong, but if that wind kicks in there is going to be a lot of trouble from I70 north. Looks like the precip might just cutoff before changing to rain, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 gonna be closer than i thought earlier with regards to severe icing here just north of i-70. We are kinda in unchartered territory. Icestorms are very rare in cmh and usually occur at the back end of a storm. To see a forecast of .5-.75 ice accretion before temps warm into the mid 30s and change to regular rain makes me scratch my head as to what to expect. Does the 35 degrees and rain destroy enough of the ice accums to make the incoming winds not necessarily a problem??? The fact that it happens at dark make a difference?? No idea. Yeah I'm genuinely concerned for Route 6 south here, so FDY may be in a lot of trouble. Weird going from 15-18" WSW to a sh*tload of IP/ZR now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 precip breaking out rapidly streaking east across sw ohio wow. The last 30 mins especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 54 in portsmouth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 54 in portsmouth! Just unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just unreal! 27 degree diff between portsmouth and circleville.... any question where the baroclinic zone is setting up...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 27 degree diff between portsmouth and circleville.... any question where the baroclinic zone is setting up...lol What is a baroclinic zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm not sure if I'm OV but just wanted to pop in and say this looks like quite the sleet storm shaping up here. Getting some moderate wind driven sleet right now. Counties just to the south and east are under ice storm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's been 35 and foggy with light rain for the last 4 hours or so over in Pittsburgh. Time to watch the areas west of us get pounded after watching the areas east of us get pounded again last week. Time to pull the shades, get off the computer and watch a movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Buckeye, is that .5" including the 1/4" we already got? If so, I agree. You can even see the difference in Franklin Co with Port Columbus holding at 30 most of the day while OSU airport is around 26 or 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm not sure if I'm OV but just wanted to pop in and say this looks like quite the sleet storm shaping up here. Getting some moderate wind driven sleet right now. Counties just to the south and east are under ice storm warnings. yep...indy gonna get crushed unless they get saved by sleet. Wow. Dude, you went from 15-20" to sleet...ugh. I feel for ya. At least you don't have to deal with frz rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just to add to the temp divide areas here are the obs from our campus wx station near the geography building: http://128.146.194.105/command=RTMC&screen=Readouts 28.8 now, so a split between the cooler OSU airport and warmer CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Buckeye, is that .5" including the 1/4" we already got? If so, I agree. You can even see the difference in Franklin Co with Port Columbus holding at 30 most of the day while OSU airport is around 26 or 27. .5 on top. i betcha precip is done and we are dryslotted by 11-midnite. this thing is book'n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 yep...indy gonna get crushed unless they get saved by sleet. Wow. Dude, you went from 15-20" to sleet...ugh. I feel for ya. At least you don't have to deal with frz rain though. Yeah it sort of stinks but that's how it goes when you're riding the edge. I've never been in a major sleet storm so it will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 .5 on top. i betcha precip is done and we are dryslotted by 11-midnite. this thing is book'n. So 0.75" TOTAL? Man that would be bad. Basically you are calling for mainly ZR tonight then not much rain afterward? That would mean not as much melts off the trees before the winds really kick in. Already picking up a bit. I heard the eerie cracking/popping noise the ice coated trees make when they move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah it sort of stinks but that's how it goes when you're riding the edge. I've never been in a major sleet storm so it will be interesting. I don't know Hoosier....that line looks like its dropping south a bit. LAF looks damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So 0.75" TOTAL? Man that would be bad. Basically you are calling for mainly ZR tonight then not much rain afterward? That would mean not as much melts off the trees before the winds really kick in. Already picking up a bit. I heard the eerie cracking/popping noise the ice coated trees make when they move. the dry slot is about to work into sw IL already. No way we have 12 hours of precip ahead of us. I'm just thinking the precip outruns the waa. Anyone else want to chime in on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thought Id see real quick what you guys think of my new site graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thought Id see real quick what you guys think of my new site graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I don't know Hoosier....that line looks like its dropping south a bit. LAF looks damn close. IND is still calling for 10-15" but I don't buy it. I'll say this...it will be the greatest call of all time if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the dry slot is about to work into sw IL already. No way we have 12 hours of precip ahead of us. I'm just thinking the precip outruns the waa. Anyone else want to chime in on that? You know what, looking at radar data and the 19z RUC I kind of have to agree. As the storm deepens it is pulling the cold air to our north into the region. CMH dropped to 29 at 3pm. This may get nasty for the Columbus downtown area on north this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 the dry slot is about to work into sw IL already. No way we have 12 hours of precip ahead of us. I'm just thinking the precip outruns the waa. Anyone else want to chime in on that? IDK, with the comma head wrapping around I could see it being plausible. I would like ot see the back end strengthen so we could pick up 2-3" on the back side. DBZ isnt that great in Chicago, and the heavier stuff actually looks south of them, heading towards LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 IND is still calling for 10-15" but I don't buy it. I'll say this...it will be the greatest call of all time if it pans out. Very weird. The temp is actually dropping some here in Seymour, IN. Winds are picking up and I am hearing some crackling of the ice in the trees from earlier ice accmulation. Very eery........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 You know what, looking at radar data and the 19z RUC I kind of have to agree. As the storm deepens it is pulling the cold air to our north into the region. CMH dropped to 29 at 3pm. This may get nasty for the Columbus downtown area on north this evening. yep...28 at port columbus now. 28 dewpoint. delaware 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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