buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's 25/24 in Delaware and 24/22 in Marion. Staying cold so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Got probably .35 - .40 of ice last night. It hammered it down.. Here's to the main bomb tonight.. Anyone watching twc? KC is getting destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've pretty much lost all respect for the NAM outside 18-24hours. ECMWF/GFS definitely led the way here. Have heard anywhere from 3 to 11" here for the second wave. GFS/ECMWF would be closer to 8-10"... NAM would be the 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 gonna be closer than i thought earlier with regards to severe icing here just north of i-70. We are kinda in unchartered territory. Icestorms are very rare in cmh and usually occur at the back end of a storm. To see a forecast of .5-.75 ice accretion before temps warm into the mid 30s and change to regular rain makes me scratch my head as to what to expect. Does the 35 degrees and rain destroy enough of the ice accums to make the incoming winds not necessarily a problem??? The fact that it happens at dark make a difference?? No idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've pretty much lost all respect for the NAM outside 18-24hours. ECMWF/GFS definitely led the way here. Have heard anywhere from 3 to 11" here for the second wave. GFS/ECMWF would be closer to 8-10"... NAM would be the 2" Excellent coverage on TWC, although they need to get a clue. They just showed a map with 1 foot snow potential and had it reaching now into central OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 gonna be closer than i thought earlier with regards to severe icing here just north of i-70. We are kinda in unchartered territory. Icestorms are very rare in cmh and usually occur at the back end of a storm. To see a forecast of .5-.75 ice accretion before temps warm into the mid 30s and change to regular rain makes me scratch my head as to what to expect. Does the 35 degrees and rain destroy enough of the ice accums to make the incoming winds not necessarily a problem??? The fact that it happens at dark make a difference?? No idea. Luckily it should be raining very hard which will reduce accretion. Although, I think even at 32 or 33 the trees can still collect ice. Once we're over 34 or 35 though I think problems will end. The water droplets will become warmer as 850 and 925mb temps increase which should help destroy the ice on the trees. The only higher concern I have is the tightening surface pressure gradient this evening. We should add some ice to the trees this evening and increase the winds before all that ice melts...May have some issues there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yikes, new RUC says .56" before we go over 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Luckily it should be raining very hard which will reduce accretion. Although, I think even at 32 or 33 the trees can still collect ice. Once we're over 34 or 35 though I think problems will end. The water droplets will become warmer as 850 and 925mb temps increase which should help destroy the ice on the trees. The only higher concern I have is the tightening surface pressure gradient this evening. We should add some ice to the trees this evening and increase the winds before all that ice melts...May have some issues there. yup i think i read that heavy rain makes it tougher to get good ice accretion.... mod rain would be much worse. Back in Feb '94/'95? we had an icestorm in columbus that featured an entire day of temps in the teens and sleet, at nightfall the sleet changed to thunderstorm and freezing rain and temps got right to about freezing. As much freezing rain as we had, the ice accretion wasn't as bad as you would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Here is the map I mentioned above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's 25/24 in Delaware and 24/22 in Marion. Staying cold so far. Now 25/23-Delaware; 21/18 -Marion. Cooling continues from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Now 25/23-Delaware; 21/18 -Marion. Cooling continues from the north. Army, where do you get your obs? I use the nws page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Here is the map I mentioned above If the white means up to 1 inch then I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Army, where do you get your obs? I use the nws page I use this from Marion http://www.marionairport.com/ And I use my home for delaware obs(which is annoying the crap out of my wife when I call every hour! lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Amazing when I left home this morning there were ice sicles on everything. By the time I arrived in Marion, there was barely a glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I use this from Marion http://www.marionairport.com/ And I use my home for delaware obs(which is annoying the crap out of my wife when I call every hour! lol) port cmh is 31/31 cold air seems to have hit a wall at the franklin/delaware line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So about 10 degree difference over two counties, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 new wrinkle? HRRR wants to dryslot us just as the temps rise above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So about 10 degree difference over two counties, wow. portsmouth at 49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 portsmouth at 49 Holy Moly!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 we were at 32 8am this morning and I was like oh heck we will have no problem going above 32 now were at 30 and been falling a bit since 10am...watching the massive shield head this way.. Will we get above 32 before all hell breaks loose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 As buckeye mentioned earlier, most of that will fall after dark...so does that mean temps stay cooler due to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 As buckeye mentioned earlier, most of that will fall after dark...so does that mean temps stay cooler due to this? Not if that wind gets southerly... Right now its northerly... Keep an eye on the wind flow. Its going to be damn close thats for sure...Went outside for the first time probably have a solid .15-.20 ice on the driveway and trees already have that sound.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not if that wind gets southerly... Right now its northerly... Keep an eye on the wind flow. Its going to be damn close thats for sure...Went outside for the first time probably have a solid .15-.20 ice on the driveway and trees already have that sound.... Makes sense. Definitely close! Looks like radar beginning to fill into the sw now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Was 32 here..now 30...hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looking at radar obs and the fact that temps have not budged and that the wind is still north...feeling pretty confident now that major ice accumulations will happen in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Also noticing how the moisture gets shunted to the ENE wants it gets into Ohio, rather than N or NE. Is that important to how this plays out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Also noticing how the moisture gets shunted to the ENE wants it gets into Ohio, rather than N or NE. Is that important to how this plays out? I don't know. I'm kind of perplexed as to why there isn't any precipitation falling right now. You'd think with a dynamic storm like this and all that Gulf moisture streaming northward and overrunning the cold air, there'd be a streak of precipitation ongoing already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 WRF-for Ohio and close up for Franklin and surrounding counties http://polarmet.osu.edu/PolarMet/wrfohionwp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice. Good start to the storm. My wife mentioned that the snow was very dense... sand like. The storm does look intense right now. The models insist on taking the storm to Northern OH... but it doesn't look that way at this point. The storm is supposed to weaken and occlude when it comes north, and there is huge high pressing down so maybe that is what shifts it east. So far this has been a low impact event. Most roads were cleared by morning rush and now just a typical winter afternoon. From the PNS appears that 4-5" was the typical spread across the area. Im doubtful we'll get more than 2 or 3 inches of snow from this by tomorrow. You won't have missed much snow at all. Hard to say how the ice will play out, but I bet we go above 32 for several hours. Warm always wins over cold. However temps will crater tomorrow leaving a thick glacier base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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