AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 CLE going 12-16"... IWX with 12-18" with iso. 20". Fringing on the models for days may finally pay off. Not too mention WAA looks sick nasty here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ok dilly you want it? then you're the driver of this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 oh, ok....learn something new here everyday....is that on the ncep panels? Yeah... I looked at the 12z NAM and it was pretty lined up with the MOS data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM 18" at TOL... 20" at FDY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM 18" at TOL... 20" at FDY looks like the heavy snow axis has been moving a bit south? Wasn't detroit supposed to be the bullseye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 ok dilly you want it? then you're the driver of this one hey theyre alright if prepared.. Im not giving up on a decent snowfall before the ice hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The storm is going to peak further south and occlude when it comes into Ohio. instead of peaking in IN you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like the heavy snow axis has been moving a bit south? Wasn't detroit supposed to be the bullseye? WAA precip gets to about .5-.7" in NWOH (~8" for FDY)... even the ECMWF had about .5" or so. Then the low seems to occlude further south then previously modeled... deform band still hits DTW hard... but not with nearly the same amount of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Can someone explain to me why, despite very little consensus shift in actual track of the low, the areas of heaviest snow seem to be shifting SE? The low was progged to move from the Missouri Bootheel to Central Indiana and Ohio already yesterday afternoon, yet all I'm hearing is about a SE shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z NAM actually has us above freezing overnight tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z NAM actually has us above freezing overnight tonight Where did u get that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Where did u get that from? WED 7A 02-FEB 1.4 1.9 1001 99 22 0.42 541 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Where do you get MOS data from 18z at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 HAO 18z GFS TUE 00Z 01-FEB -2.4 4.2 1022 94 60 0.01 560 542 TUE 06Z 01-FEB 0.0 4.1 1019 97 98 0.12 559 543 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -0.3 3.7 1019 98 97 0.14 558 543 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -0.9 3.6 1019 97 96 0.07 558 543 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Can someone explain to me why, despite very little consensus shift in actual track of the low, the areas of heaviest snow seem to be shifting SE? The low was progged to move from the Missouri Bootheel to Central Indiana and Ohio already yesterday afternoon, yet all I'm hearing is about a SE shift. The snowfall maps are deceptive because they are for the entire event. The initial WAA snows were not modeled 36 hours ago across northern OH and IN, thus now with 6-8" expected overnight in this area, the snowfall maps give the illusion of the heavy snow moving south, when in fact its just the WAA snows getting beefed up before the low moves up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WED 7A 02-FEB 1.4 1.9 1001 99 22 0.42 541 540 thought you said overnight tonight? That's Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radionicist Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Updated HPC maps are up: http://www.hpc.ncep....winter_wx.shtml The Day Two Freezing Rain map looks ominous: I'm right on the 10% line. I hope the SE trend is real, and continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 HAO WED 00Z 02-FEB -1.1 3.4 1013 98 98 0.19 555 544 Were going down at the surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z GFS is laying down between .25-.50 ice for northern part of CIncy! It did go down another degree... I will post the entire data in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 quick question I am not sure about, which is odd because you'd think I would know this.. But what does the bolded part mean.. what is precip type if 850's are below ut surface is above? BTW the GFS is significantly colder for my location TUE 06Z 01-FEB 0.1 3.1 1020 99 97 0.07 559 543 TUE 12Z 01-FEB 0.4 3.2 1019 100 98 0.25 558 543 TUE 18Z 01-FEB 0.7 2.7 1019 97 95 0.04 559 543 WED 00Z 02-FEB -0.3 3.5 1016 98 96 0.04 557 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB 1.4 3.8 1005 100 100 0.32 554 550 WED 12Z 02-FEB 4.6 -1.4 1000 99 27 0.26 540 540 WED 18Z 02-FEB -2.4 -11.3 1005 84 91 0.04 532 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Where did u get that from? Doesn't look right. I'm discarding it. Latest RUC looks good with .25" of frz rain overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 quick question I am not sure about, which is odd because you'd think I would know this.. But what does the bolded part mean.. what is precip type if 850's are below ut surface is above? BTW the GFS is significantly colder for my location TUE 06Z 01-FEB 0.1 3.1 1020 99 97 0.07 559 543 TUE 12Z 01-FEB 0.4 3.2 1019 100 98 0.25 558 543 TUE 18Z 01-FEB 0.7 2.7 1019 97 95 0.04 559 543 WED 00Z 02-FEB -0.3 3.5 1016 98 96 0.04 557 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB 1.4 3.8 1005 100 100 0.32 554 550 WED 12Z 02-FEB 4.6 -1.4 1000 99 27 0.26 540 540 WED 18Z 02-FEB -2.4 -11.3 1005 84 91 0.04 532 528 That is tough. Depends on whole profile of the atmosphere. Could be some partially melted flakes or ice pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 quick question I am not sure about, which is odd because you'd think I would know this.. But what does the bolded part mean.. what is precip type if 850's are below ut surface is above? BTW the GFS is significantly colder for my location TUE 06Z 01-FEB 0.1 3.1 1020 99 97 0.07 559 543 TUE 12Z 01-FEB 0.4 3.2 1019 100 98 0.25 558 543 TUE 18Z 01-FEB 0.7 2.7 1019 97 95 0.04 559 543 WED 00Z 02-FEB -0.3 3.5 1016 98 96 0.04 557 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB 1.4 3.8 1005 100 100 0.32 554 550 WED 12Z 02-FEB 4.6 -1.4 1000 99 27 0.26 540 540 WED 18Z 02-FEB -2.4 -11.3 1005 84 91 0.04 532 528 from the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 from the 12z? It is in my location, not sure about cmh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It is in my location, not sure about cmh how much frz rain for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 how much frz rain for you? None looking at those numbers.. well actually .04 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 None looking at those numbers.. well actually .04 lol ok...gotcha. You're just saying it's trending colder. I wasn't sure if those were your location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Freezing rain with first wave looks to set up around a line from Dayton to Morgantown so around 30 miles south of i-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ok...gotcha. You're just saying it's trending colder. I wasn't sure if those were your location Latest RUC has .25" for us overnight of freezing rain. Looks like we're right on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 radar loop looks neat. Precip heading north through IL and then turns and starts heading back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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