Trent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My confidence for at least 5" tonight is quickly growing. The WRF, NAM, and BUF mesos all indicate .4-.6" overnight for northern Ohio. Could be some 7" totals by lunch. Hard to say what rush hour impact this will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 out to 192 yet? The PSU site looks like it shafts us with a track through eastern IN. :gun_bandana: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The PSU site looks like it shafts us with a track through eastern IN. :gun_bandana: OMG, here we go again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tonight...A chance of snow...sleet and freezing rain in the evening...then freezing rain and sleet after midnight. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Near steady temperatures in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 100 percent. Tuesday...Freezing rain and sleet in the morning...then rain... Freezing rain and sleet in the afternoon. Sleet accumulation less than an inch. Ice accumulation of up to two tenths of an inch. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 100 percent. not buying that. Why would it warm, only to have cold air punch back in ahead of the advancing storm? we either change over and stay rain or we don't change over to liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 not buying that. Why would it warm, only to have cold air punch back in ahead of the advancing storm? we either change over and stay rain or we don't change over to liquid Yeah I agree. Seriously doubt we go back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 so it sounds like they'll go with an advisory franklin....maybe a warning delaware north? that's my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 not buying that. Why would it warm, only to have cold air punch back in ahead of the advancing storm? we either change over and stay rain or we don't change over to liquid Possibly because of how tough the forecast is. I'm going to make a map with my ideas for snow and ice totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 so it sounds like they'll go with an advisory franklin....maybe a warning delaware north? that's my guess Says who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Delaware's point forecast has gone back to primarily freezing rain and sleet rather than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tonight...A chance of snow and sleet in the evening...then sleet...freezing rain and snow after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation less than an inch. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Near steady temperatures in the mid 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 100 percent. Tuesday...Sleet...freezing rain and snow in the morning...then freezing rain and sleet in the afternoon. Snow and sleet accumulation less than an inch. Ice accumulation around a tenth of an inch. Highs around 30. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 100 percent. Tuesday Night...Freezing rain with a chance of sleet in the evening...then rain and freezing rain after midnight. Little or no sleet accumulation. Temperatures rising into the mid 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph... Becoming southeast after midnight. Gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 100 percent. Wednesday...Rain and snow likely in the morning...then snow likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation possible. Brisk with highs in the mid 30s. Temperatures falling into the mid 20s in the afternoon. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent For Delaware... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 so it sounds like they'll go with an advisory franklin....maybe a warning delaware north? that's my guess With .30" of ZR in their forecast?! I'd be SHOCKED if they didn't have warnings up in the areas that have .30" of ZR in their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 With .30" of ZR in their forecast?! I'd be SHOCKED if they didn't have warnings up in the areas that have .30" of ZR in their forecast. Yeah, I can see Cincy with an adv. but warning criteria is .25" and both the GFS and NAM are indicating over .30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The immediate lakeshore is going to be riding a fine line. Might be a case where 20 miles inland sees mixing while the lakeshore is snow -- I know, I'm a weenie. But, this storm will be moving almost due east after going through IN which would hopefully cut off the exteme WAA. A minor shift would do the trick. If anything, it may be a 3-4 window of mixing. WSW out for Northern OH. CLE is throwing a bone to the immediate lakeshore. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 254 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-047-089-010400- /O.UPG.KCLE.WS.A.0001.110201T0300Z-110202T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KCLE.WS.W.0002.110201T0300Z-110203T0000Z/ LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT- PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-HOLMES-KNOX- ASHTABULA LAKESHORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LORAIN...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON... JEFFERSON...MEDINA...AKRON...RAVENNA...WARREN...ASHLAND... WOOSTER...CANTON...YOUNGSTOWN...MILLERSBURG...MOUNT VERNON... ASHTABULA 254 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SNOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW WILL THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO WARM AIR MOVING NORTH AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM...THE SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF THE LAKE SHORE. FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED UNTREATED SURFACES. ICE WILL ACCUMULATE AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATION BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AREAS...IF THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN MUCH SOONER. TOTAL STORM SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE AROUND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AROUND 12 INCHES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH254 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-010400-/O.UPG.KCLE.WS.A.0001.110201T0300Z-110203T0000Z//O.NEW.KCLE.WS.W.0002.110201T0300Z-110203T0000Z/LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-MARION-MORROW-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOLEDO...BOWLING GREEN...PORT CLINTON...FREMONT...SANDUSKY...FINDLAY...TIFFIN...NORWALK...UPPER SANDUSKY...CAREY...BUCYRUS...MANSFIELD...MARION...MOUNT GILEAD254 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THISEVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGERIN EFFECT.SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHTAHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BEEXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT WILL DIMINISH ININTENSITY AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SNOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THESECOND WAVE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STORMSYSTEM WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTOTUESDAY NIGHT.TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 16 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH THISWINTER STORM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOONINTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST CAUSING SIGNIFICANT BLOWINGAND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONSARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONCHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE SNOW WILLGRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW TOWARD EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH254 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-010400-/O.UPG.KCLE.WS.A.0001.110201T0300Z-110203T0000Z//O.NEW.KCLE.WS.W.0002.110201T0300Z-110203T0000Z/LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-MARION-MORROW-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOLEDO...BOWLING GREEN...PORT CLINTON...FREMONT...SANDUSKY...FINDLAY...TIFFIN...NORWALK...UPPER SANDUSKY...CAREY...BUCYRUS...MANSFIELD...MARION...MOUNT GILEAD254 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THISEVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGERIN EFFECT.SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHTAHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BEEXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT WILL DIMINISH ININTENSITY AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SNOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THESECOND WAVE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STORMSYSTEM WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTOTUESDAY NIGHT.TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 16 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH THISWINTER STORM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOONINTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST CAUSING SIGNIFICANT BLOWINGAND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONSARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONCHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE SNOW WILLGRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW TOWARD EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. Its way different on the point forecasts though. Has marion at 4-9" same with MFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Cleveland NWS going with a foot for the lakeshore communities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z NAM is trending better and better for less mixing across the northern tier. Front end dump is huge. Hopefully the NAM is starting to get a better handle on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Congrats!! BUckeye has his first warning of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Buckeye were in the same zone for the warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 353 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. INZ066-073-074-OHZ054>056-062-070-010500- /O.UPG.KILN.WS.A.0003.110201T0000Z-110201T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KILN.WS.W.0003.110201T0000Z-110203T0000Z/ FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-GREENE- BUTLER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES... LAWRENCEBURG...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...XENIA...HAMILTON 353 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TAKE THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...BECOMING ALL FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY FALL AS FREEZING RAIN...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE ICE...WEST WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ADD STRESS TO ICE COVERED POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z NAM is trending better and better for less mixing across the northern tier. Front end dump is huge. Hopefully the NAM is starting to get a better handle on this storm. That's 0.75" for front end by 10 am tomorrow. Easily 8 inches. Hanging by thread rest of storm. At my office, everyone is thinking nothing is coming after the numerous busts this winter. The NAM has at least 0.5" falling in 6 hours from 1 am to 7 am right over Cleveland. That's going to be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Congrats!! BUckeye has his first warning of the season! Wonder if we even switch to rain..They now say not untill after midnight tom. night!! Hmmm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Trent this NAM run gives lakeshore communities 10+....lets hope that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Congrats!! BUckeye has his first warning of the season! For junk though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just got back in....what did the soundings on the nam look like. The storm itself appeared to be a tiny bit east/south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just got back in....what did the soundings on the nam look like. The storm itself appeared to be a tiny bit east/south? Not sure about 2m temps but I was told to examine the MSLP-850MB maps to get a possible idea of the 2m temperatures and it sits right on the river to the south of CBUS and looking at the 1.00+ of QPF right north of the river that could be very indicative of heavy icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not sure about 2m temps but I was told to examine the MSLP-850MB maps to get a possible idea of the 2m temperatures and it sits right on the river to the south of CBUS and looking at the 1.00+ of QPF right north of the river that could be very indicative of heavy icing. what is the MSLP 850 line we are looking for. Can't be the 0 line it's much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Trent this NAM run gives lakeshore communities 10+....lets hope that verifies The trend has definitely been in our favor. The trend for heavy snow tonight has been incredible. A 2-4" call is very conservative by CLE with model output over . 75" through morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This one I was told... This is temperatures just above the surface. They are below 32 which I guess means that the 2m temps would be below 32... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This one I was told... This is temperatures just above the surface. They are below 32 which I guess means that the 2m temps would be below 32... oh, ok....learn something new here everyday....is that on the ncep panels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM 1.51 qpf for LPR (Lorain) all SNOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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