Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like the gfs ensemble mean is nw of the op.... think we're gonna dodge a bullet You going to make that call. I think its safe to say most of get .25 ICE with wave 1. What wave 2 does is the big question. NAM says not above 32, GFS just above then EURO says way above. I am going with .25-.50 for my area because I think the .25 is a given. Dayton will likely see closer .50 because wave 2 will likely bring freezing rain but they may still get to rain to keep ice below .75.... We shall see this is now a nowcast situation to see how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You going to make that call. I think its safe to say most of get .25 ICE with wave 1. What wave 2 does is the big question. NAM says not above 32, GFS just above then EURO says way above. I am going with .25-.50 for my area because I think the .25 is a given. Dayton will likely see closer .50 because wave 2 will likely bring freezing rain but they may still get to rain to keep ice below .75.... We shall see this is now a nowcast situation to see how things play out. the euro kinda makes sense, especially if the primary drives to terra houte IN before occluding. Thinking about it more, models tend to wash out and transfer energy too quickly. If that were the error that the gfs and nam were making, we would go well above 32 at the surface. I could see that happening. Definitely will be a nowcast event. I've gotten over the whole idea of missing the snowstorm, and now i'm just hoping we don't get the booby prize of an icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here is the problem I am having. here is the point forecast for danville, oh 15 miles from me.. Tonight: A chance of snow before 1am, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 19. Northeast wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet before 1pm, then snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet. High near 31. Northeast wind between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday Night: Freezing rain and sleet before 1am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with rain. Low around 31. Northeast wind 14 to 18 mph becoming southeast. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible so 5-9 inches of snow with .25 - .5 of ice.. 15 miles north of me has 4-8" with .25 - .50 of ice there. While pit has me getting 1-3" of snow with .25 - .5" of ice. So I mean im not sure what to believe right now.. I guess tonight will be the big test. If I pick up 2-4 tonight I will have to go with CLE's forecast over PIT's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 btw, Dr. NO sticks to his name sake regarding late week. NO storm, just a trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 the euro kinda makes sense, especially if the primary drives to terra houte IN before occluding. Thinking about it more, models tend to wash out and transfer energy too quickly. If that were the error that the gfs and nam were making, we would go well above 32 at the surface. I could see that happening. Definitely will be a nowcast event. I've gotten over the whole idea of missing the snowstorm, and now i'm just hoping we don't get the booby prize of an icestorm Im rooting like hell for an icestorm now. Or heck Ill go with the 5-9" and ice on top lol.. But I will take the ice storm at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the euro kinda makes sense, especially if the primary drives to terra houte IN before occluding. Thinking about it more, models tend to wash out and transfer energy too quickly. If that were the error that the gfs and nam were making, we would go well above 32 at the surface. I could see that happening. Definitely will be a nowcast event. I've gotten over the whole idea of missing the snowstorm, and now i'm just hoping we don't get the booby prize of an icestorm Let's have a mini-contest to keep this interesting. Post the highest temp it gets to for our area on Wed. By our area I mean northern Franklin/Extreme southeastern Delaware County. My call is 43 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Dilly what are the Euro temp profiles for Toledo? It looks to me like all snow but just wanna make sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 btw, Dr. NO sticks to his name sake regarding late week. NO storm, just a trough Yeap... He hasn't been really nice to the Ohio Valley lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 btw, Dr. NO sticks to his name sake regarding late week. NO storm, just a trough DAM! Please don't tell me it shows a coastal. Let me know what it says for about the 192 hr. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Dilly what are the Euro temp profiles for Toledo? It looks to me like all snow but just wanna make sure. easily all snow. TUE 06Z 01-FEB -8.5 -3.0 1024 80 97 0.09 554 535 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -8.8 -4.4 1024 85 80 0.15 553 535 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -6.4 -4.1 1024 81 82 0.02 554 536 WED 00Z 02-FEB -6.7 -3.9 1020 83 93 0.09 552 537 WED 06Z 02-FEB -7.3 -1.1 1008 88 99 0.44 548 541 WED 12Z 02-FEB -4.9 -5.4 1001 89 35 0.44 535 534 WED 18Z 02-FEB -6.5 -13.1 1007 81 85 0.08 532 527 THU 00Z 03-FEB -7.2 -15.5 1019 78 87 0.02 540 525 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Isn't the euro not as good under 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 thanks Dilly....hopin Bowling Green can hold on like Toledo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Dilly care to post CLE temps per the euro...trying to warn my mom of whats to come. Again much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 thanks Dilly....hopin Bowling Green can hold on like Toledo here is bowling green. It's close, but you stay snow. At the very least it may change to sleet for a time, but the majority will fall as snow. TUE 06Z 01-FEB -8.0 -2.7 1024 81 97 0.09 554 536 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -8.4 -4.0 1024 87 80 0.17 554 535 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -6.4 -3.6 1024 83 85 0.02 555 536 WED 00Z 02-FEB -6.5 -3.2 1020 84 94 0.08 553 537 WED 06Z 02-FEB -6.8 -0.5 1008 89 99 0.45 548 542 WED 12Z 02-FEB -3.4 -4.3 1000 89 35 0.42 535 535 WED 18Z 02-FEB -6.3 -12.9 1007 82 87 0.07 532 527 THU 00Z 03-FEB -7.2 -15.5 1018 79 88 0.03 539 525 Here is CLE TUE 06Z 01-FEB -5.3 -1.6 1023 85 95 0.03 555 537 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -5.8 -2.4 1023 91 85 0.24 555 537 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -4.3 -1.2 1022 86 91 0.01 556 538 WED 00Z 02-FEB -5.5 -0.7 1020 88 87 0.06 555 539 WED 06Z 02-FEB -2.8 0.9 1009 92 94 0.36 551 544 WED 12Z 02-FEB 1.0 0.8 999 94 48 0.43 538 539 Would more than likely be sleet/snow. I dont buy the temps on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Isn't the euro not as good under 48 hours? "The question concerning the euro. It's 48 hour forecast of QPF verify better in the midwest than any of the other models except at the highest threshold the gfs wins. The nam overforecasts the really heavy amounts. http://www.hpc.ncep..../m3_48h_mdw.gif But for the highest thresholds, the gfs wins at 72 hours. http://www.hpc.ncep..../m3_72h_mdw.gif" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 here is bowling green. It's close, but you stay snow. At the very least it may change to sleet for a time, but the majority will fall as snow. TUE 06Z 01-FEB -8.0 -2.7 1024 81 97 0.09 554 536 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -8.4 -4.0 1024 87 80 0.17 554 535 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -6.4 -3.6 1024 83 85 0.02 555 536 WED 00Z 02-FEB -6.5 -3.2 1020 84 94 0.08 553 537 WED 06Z 02-FEB -6.8 -0.5 1008 89 99 0.45 548 542 WED 12Z 02-FEB -3.4 -4.3 1000 89 35 0.42 535 535 WED 18Z 02-FEB -6.3 -12.9 1007 82 87 0.07 532 527 THU 00Z 03-FEB -7.2 -15.5 1018 79 88 0.03 539 525 wow, as close as bowling green all snow??? geezus i'm not gonna want to look at that radar. I'll be sick watching those white returns scooting se to nw right past us as we sit in the green. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 dilly, hey...what about cmh??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 btw, Dr. NO sticks to his name sake regarding late week. NO storm, just a trough Good because the Nebraska bomb and gulf coast low it was showing last week are really panning out right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks Dilly. Any reason you don't but those temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 dilly, hey...what about cmh??? lol 0.0C or warmer from this afternoon on so little or no ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DAM! Please don't tell me it shows a coastal. Let me know what it says for about the 192 hr. Thanks! No coastal either ...nothing basicaly. As far as the temp contest, two field of thought here. 1. we torch...like 48-50 because the storm really cranks and warm air shoots in. OR 2. storm stays relatively weaker and cold shallow air wins...in that cast, 30 and hang on tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0.0C or warmer from this afternoon on so little or no ice. wow.... well i'll guess we'll know relatively soon if it can be trusted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 wow, as close as bowling green all snow??? geezus i'm not gonna want to look at that radar. I'll be sick watching those white returns scooting se to nw right past us as we sit in the green. Ugh. Which is why I am pointing out that it wont take much of a shift from what models ares hwoing to at least get a decent amount of snow before it changes over. LIke I said CLE has 15 miles to my e and 15 miles to my north in the 5-9" range, while PIT has me in the 1-3" range.. So we may have to watch the radar lol dilly, hey...what about cmh??? lol TUE 06Z 01-FEB 0.2 2.3 1020 89 94 0.12 558 542 TUE 12Z 01-FEB 0.0 3.2 1020 96 100 0.18 558 542 TUE 18Z 01-FEB 0.9 3.5 1019 92 87 0.11 559 543 WED 00Z 02-FEB 0.4 3.4 1014 93 87 0.07 556 545 WED 06Z 02-FEB 4.2 3.3 1001 95 99 0.49 553 552 WED 12Z 02-FEB 5.3 -3.8 1001 92 20 0.24 539 539 WED 18Z 02-FEB -0.9 -11.7 1008 55 73 0.01 535 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I look at it this way. The track as it is would be least problematic for Cleveland. The front end snows even if they are close to 5 or 6 inches will be cleaned up by afternoon and forgotten. The transition to sleet and then to snow would just be another 4 inches, easily plowed away. A shift SE would give Cleveland 15" of snow. A shift NW a crippling ice storm. The gradient will be uber tight and likely set up across the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 wow.... well i'll guess we'll know relatively soon if it can be trusted lol Dew point of 10 right now at CMH....I don't see those temps verifying with evap. cooling taken into account. ILN updated grid for Franklin County says .1" tonight and .2" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Dew point of 10 right now at CMH....I don't see those temps verifying with evap. cooling taken into account. ILN updated grid for Franklin County says .1" tonight and .2" tomorrow. .1 tonite? Hmmm maybe they're thinking some snow and sleet too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 .1 tonite? Hmmm maybe they're thinking some snow and sleet too? Tonight...A chance of snow...sleet and freezing rain in the evening...then freezing rain and sleet after midnight. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Near steady temperatures in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 100 percent. Tuesday...Freezing rain and sleet in the morning...then rain... Freezing rain and sleet in the afternoon. Sleet accumulation less than an inch. Ice accumulation of up to two tenths of an inch. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No coastal either ...nothing basicaly. As far as the temp contest, two field of thought here. 1. we torch...like 48-50 because the storm really cranks and warm air shoots in. OR 2. storm stays relatively weaker and cold shallow air wins...in that cast, 30 and hang on tight. ok, well I am going with 1? You? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No coastal either ...nothing basicaly. As far as the temp contest, two field of thought here. 1. we torch...like 48-50 because the storm really cranks and warm air shoots in. OR 2. storm stays relatively weaker and cold shallow air wins...in that cast, 30 and hang on tight. out to 192 yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheezemm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm watching this closely as I'm b/t Akron/Canton and frankly don't want to have to deal with >.5" ice with wind. As is, it sounds like Tuesday morning's commute to and from work could be mighty interesting with the possibility of not having power Tuesday night/Wednesday (and possibly prolonged) I have the generator ready to go and bought the necessary supplies yesterday morning. I will be stopping by lowe's or home depot to get an electric space heater for emergency purposes. Keep your fingers crossed that we get above that magic 32 degree line or stay well below. Why can't it just pour ice over Lake Erie only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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