buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Pretty much... The more east you are the harder it will be for the warm air to work in because the LOW will rapidly occlude. Thats the trend I am seeing on the models. You may be more east of the LOW but we got so much occlusion taking place that warm air is being sucked away. I think that is what the models are catching onto right now. I wouldn't be surprised at 18z and 00z to see the GFS go below 32 for the northern Cincy counties the entire time. We now have the CMC coming but you have no real text data to work with. The EURO you will have some and that model has been torchy to say the least but it did go colder and less bullish with the prolonged warm air. it's a nailbiter. I was hoping to see a much more significant shift south to get us more into the mixy zone of sleet. Since that doesn't seem to be happening i guess the next thing to do is root for a n. shift or warm air working in during the lull. an honest to goodness icestorm is not something im looking forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z NAM BUFKIT shows 18.5", 12z GFS BUFKIT shows 16.6" for Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the ggem has less of an occluded look to it.. drives the storm to ne OH which would definitely save the day as far as an ice storm here. Other than some minor to mod icing with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z NAM BUFKIT shows 18.5", 12z GFS BUFKIT shows 16.6" for Toledo. Also starting to get into the RUC's range -- it shows 3.8" of snow falling between in the four hours between 5z and 9z tonight/tomorrow in Cleveland. So could be a rough morning commute tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the ggem has less of an occluded look to it.. drives the storm to ne OH which would definitely save the day as far as an ice storm here. Other than some minor to mod icing with the first wave. In regards to the CMC do you think that second wave is rain to snow? It has the 540 line through western Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just woke up but to me it looks like the models are still showing all snow for basically Findley north in NW ohio? And wow NAM and GFS are a mess for CLE moderate snowfall accums and heavy ice....yikess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 might have to pull out my Glen Beck collapse of civilization survival guide. I don't know Army, im still about 60/40 in favor of being spared a major icestorm. 15 miles north of the delaware/franklin line (where i live)....different story Definitely close enough to prepare...I ended up getting a 5000watt at menards. It was one of only two display models left! They said an emrgency shipment would be in by tomorrow night, which is too late. People in marion are being told to expect up to 10" of snow. Not really sure why. I think it will be more ice than snow up their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the ggem has less of an occluded look to it.. drives the storm to ne OH which would definitely save the day as far as an ice storm here. Other than some minor to mod icing with the first wave. Eh, but exactly how well has it been doing with this storm? What are you thoughts on al the sun we're seeing today? Maybe that helps warm us up some then the clouds hold temps up tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 For tonight, the RUC shows 2-4 inches of snow from Toledo to Cleveland to Youngstown (Findlay picks up about 5" of snow and sleet). Further south, it shows around an inch or less of snow and sleet and .1-.2" of freezing rain for MFD to CAK to PIT. Further south still, it shows about .25" of ZR for CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Eh, but exactly how well has it been doing with this storm? What are you thoughts on al the sun we're seeing today? Maybe that helps warm us up some then the clouds hold temps up tonight? in the whole scheme of things it probably wont matter. Upper levels are supposed to be cold enough to start as sleet and snow so that'll cool the surface back anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Eh, but exactly how well has it been doing with this storm? What are you thoughts on al the sun we're seeing today? Maybe that helps warm us up some then the clouds hold temps up tonight? Bob Nunally channel 4. .1" ice tonite, .1" ice tomorrow. Oh boy i hope he's right for two reasons. first i don't want an icestorm, second not gonna be a lot of prepared people if we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 in the whole scheme of things it probably wont matter. Upper levels are supposed to be cold enough to start as sleet and snow so that'll cool the surface back anyways. I think your going to get your first warning within the next 6hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Bob Nunally channel 4. .1" ice tonite, .1" ice tomorrow. Oh boy i hope he's right for two reasons. first i don't want an icestorm, second not gonna be a lot of prepared people if we do. Can't ignore BOTH 12z models upping QPF. I think at least 1/4" of ice tonight/tmrw AM. If GFS/NAM are right then more like .25 to .35" I'm leery of the heavy batch actually starting as freezing rain. It would only affect roads though as anything on trees/powerlines would get washed away once we warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Can't ignore BOTH 12z models upping QPF. I think at least 1/4" of ice tonight/tmrw AM. If GFS/NAM are right then more like .25 to .35" I'm leery of the heavy batch actually starting as freezing rain. It would only affect roads though as anything on trees/powerlines would get washed away once we warm up. yep, if you're talking about the second batch i agree. I would be really surprised if we didnt' warm up above freezing during the lull. The main, and possibly only threat, with this could potentially be what happens overnite tonight. I hope. If we're sitting at 30 degrees and a 22 dewpoint with heavy rain approaching from the south late tuesday....katy bar the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 good luck guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 good luck guys in this case that means rain....hopefully. thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 in this case that means rain....hopefully. thnx Did you see the stuff that the 12z EURO hinted at for the weekend? The DGEX has really been playing with our minds of a walloping snowstorm this coming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z CMC shows it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here's my last call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z CMC shows it.. Shame on me...I have been focusing on fantasy land 192 hr on GFS. I ignored this one b/c the GFS has as a coastal, but maybe that's a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 of course we could always pray that the suny mm5 scores it's first upset in its history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 of course we could always pray that the suny mm5 scores it's first upset in its history What model is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What model is that? MM5 it only goes out to 60 hrs...been around for many years. Apparently like the ruc, there are different versions. It's pretty much always wrong...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MM5 it only goes out to 60 hrs...been around for many years. Apparently like the ruc, there are different versions. It's pretty much always wrong...lol LOL its odds of verifying are the odds of Ohio State losing to a Division 2A opponent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL its odds of verifying are the odds of Ohio State losing to a Division 2A opponent... yea pretty much this is the link http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/36km.slp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here's the thing you've got to look at. The gradient is so tight on the east side of this storm, that if the storm decides to track even 50 miles south central ohio would get slammed with snow and ice. It would be 6-8" of snow with .25 of ice.. I know its the clown maps, but it shows what I am talking about.. same way on the gfs. I mean it wouldnt take much of a south shift.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro spares cmh a major ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro spares cmh a major ice storm well at least it did somethng in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 well at least it did somethng in our favor looks like the gfs ensemble mean is nw of the op.... think we're gonna dodge a bullet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like the gfs ensemble mean is nw of the op.... think we're gonna dodge a bullet I would go just on models here. the temp gradient is so tight, its hard to just trust the models. A 15 -20 miles difference will spell huge differences in what happens here,. point forecast for 15 miles to my north lol.. I think there will be surprises and disappointments on the east side of this storm.. Tonight...Snow developing. A chance of sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows around 18. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Tuesday...Snow. A chance of freezing rain or sleet. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs around 30. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Tuesday Night...A wintry mix of snow or freezing rain or sleet. Near steady temperature around 30. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph...becoming east after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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