JayPSU Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 CMH on the 12z NAM has a LOT of ice! Do you have the specific numbers yet? The graphical lines were just too close to tell where the ZR vs. rain line was EXACTLY. Definitely a smidge colder at the surface here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow. The Nam might be getting a better grip on the low level cold as we get closer, if so watch out. Places from Ohio to Pa could see an inch + verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The NAM has me below freezing the entire time TUE 1A 01-FEB -1.8 4.0 1019 95 100 0.08 559 543 TUE 7A 01-FEB -2.0 3.5 1019 96 97 0.11 558 542 TUE 1P 01-FEB -2.6 3.4 1019 93 77 0.04 558 542 TUE 7P 01-FEB -2.6 3.8 1014 93 96 0.08 555 544 WED 1A 02-FEB -0.6 5.6 1003 95 99 0.81 551 549 WED 7A 02-FEB 0.0 -3.8 1001 96 28 0.12 538 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think most of CLE's snows will come from the front end WAA thump overnight tonight. Could be an easy 6 inches, with just slop afterward. NAM has a half inch of ice and sleet falling at CLE for the overnight hours on Tuesday into Wednesday. That's pretty much the worst time for an ice storm. Ice will be easy to accumulate and also corresponds to the peak winds of the storm. The morning commute tomorrow will be awful with the quick dump of WAA snows, and forget about Wednesday mornings commute as traffic signals will be inoperable. This is going to be a huge mess if we get that much freezing rain on top of the snow. The "warm" up doesn't last long so there won't much melting of the ice at all. I'm still holding out hope that the far northern counties will see primarily snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do you have the specific numbers yet? The graphical lines were just too close to tell where the ZR vs. rain line was EXACTLY. Definitely a smidge colder at the surface here though. MON 7P 31-JAN -3.2 0.8 1023 94 56 0.01 558 540 TUE 1A 01-FEB -2.3 2.7 1020 95 100 0.05 558 542 TUE 7A 01-FEB -2.1 1.9 1020 96 96 0.23 557 542 TUE 1P 01-FEB -2.1 2.3 1020 92 84 0.03 557 541 TUE 7P 01-FEB -3.1 2.4 1018 93 90 0.04 556 542 WED 1A 02-FEB -1.1 5.4 1006 95 100 0.65 554 549 WED 7A 02-FEB 1.4 1.9 1001 99 22 0.42 541 540 WED 1P 02-FEB -2.2 -11.7 1006 86 75 0.03 535 530 It's holds us below freezing for the first half of the major surge of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12zNAM shows a nice front end dump for OH. 540 line make it to the lakeshore around hour 42 then crashes SE. If it does turn over to slop its not lasting long at all. Hopefully the GFS plays ball on a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 CMH on the 12z NAM has a LOT of ice! Looks like about an inch. low is a bit south of 6z.... especially the 850 low. That trend began at yesterdays 18z and was scoffed at as typical 18z inconsistencies, but that trend has continued, albeit very slightly since then. Not good because ice is what is looking more real...the trend isnt big enough to start talking snow. this was the 9z sref...you can see a bit south and it did translate to the 12z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MON 7P 31-JAN -3.2 0.8 1023 94 56 0.01 558 540 TUE 1A 01-FEB -2.3 2.7 1020 95 100 0.05 558 542 TUE 7A 01-FEB -2.1 1.9 1020 96 96 0.23 557 542 TUE 1P 01-FEB -2.1 2.3 1020 92 84 0.03 557 541 TUE 7P 01-FEB -3.1 2.4 1018 93 90 0.04 556 542 WED 1A 02-FEB -1.1 5.4 1006 95 100 0.65 554 549 WED 7A 02-FEB 1.4 1.9 1001 99 22 0.42 541 540 WED 1P 02-FEB -2.2 -11.7 1006 86 75 0.03 535 530 It's holds us below freezing for the first half of the major surge of rain. would the correct way to interpret those soundings be the surface temp is -1.1 AT 1am wednesday while the .65 fell the 6 hours before that? If so.... :yikes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If the GFS follows suit you are going to have your first Winter Storm Warning of the season! I will have my second. I think ILN for now will give the northern Cincy counties the WSW and the counties along the river and east Freezing Rain advisories. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 would the correct way to interpret those soundings be the surface temp is -1.1 AT 1am wednesday while the .65 fell the 6 hours before that? If so.... :yikes: That is my understanding. I think it is like most maps we see from the models. QPF is typically the previous 6 hours while thermals are AT that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 would the correct way to interpret those soundings be the surface temp is -1.1 AT 1am wednesday while the .65 fell the 6 hours before that? If so.... :yikes: Yes. Not to mention that SOME of that .42" in the next 6 hours will also be ZR as it won't instant rise from -1.1 to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That is my understanding. I think it is like most maps we see from the models. QPF is typically the previous 6 hours while thermals are AT that time. yea that's what i thought. Im am sounding and bufkit illiterate....lol. btw, that also falls at dark..which is probably just another consideration that would make ice accums easier. Tuesday during the lull might be our best opportunity to get surface temps a bit higher....maybe. ILN might keep a watch thru tuesaday night and decide tuesday morning whether to go to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yes. Not to mention that SOME of that .42" in the next 6 hours will also be ZR as it won't instant rise from -1.1 to 0. I've also read that heavy rain tends to offset accretion a bit due to more latent heat being released.....something like that..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Generator's are already getting sold quickly at the lowes in marion. Gonna check out menards in an hour. Wife already stocked up on the food, batteries and water. Now just sit and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Generator's are already getting sold quickly at the lowes in marion. Gonna check out menards in an hour. Wife already stocked up on the food, batteries and water. Now just sit and wait. might have to pull out my Glen Beck collapse of civilization survival guide. I don't know Army, im still about 60/40 in favor of being spared a major icestorm. 15 miles north of the delaware/franklin line (where i live)....different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow! NAM is so close to all snow in Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12zNAM shows a nice front end dump for OH. 540 line make it to the lakeshore around hour 42 then crashes SE. If it does turn over to slop its not lasting long at all. Hopefully the GFS plays ball on a colder solution. Not to get snow weenie, but just a hair colder would be at least 15" for CLE. Plenty of time yet for minor shifts south, hopefully frozen Erie is enough of a nudge to keep us all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ouch Not looking good for my old stomping grounds DAY 110201/0500Z 29 08009KT 26.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110201/0600Z 30 08009KT 26.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.01 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110201/0700Z 31 06008KT 27.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.02 0| 0|100 110201/0800Z 32 03009KT 27.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.04 0| 0|100 110201/0900Z 33 03010KT 25.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.05 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.05 0| 0|100 110201/1000Z 34 04010KT 25.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.043|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.05|| 0.10 0| 0|100 110201/1100Z 35 04009KT 25.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 0.19 0.00|| 0.00 0.10|| 0.19 0| 0|100 110201/1200Z 36 05010KT 29.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.047|| 0.23 0.00|| 0.00 0.05|| 0.24 0| 0|100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110201/1300Z 37 04009KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.079|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.00 0.08|| 0.33 0| 0|100 110201/1400Z 38 03010KT 29.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 0.40 0.00|| 0.00 0.10|| 0.42 0| 0|100 110201/1500Z 39 02011KT 27.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.051|| 0.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.05|| 0.48 0| 0|100 110201/1600Z 40 04011KT 25.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.020|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.50 0| 3| 97 110201/1700Z 41 04010KT 26.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.50 0| 0| 0 110201/1800Z 42 03011KT 26.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.50 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110201/1900Z 43 04013KT 26.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.50 0| 0| 0 110201/2000Z 44 05012KT 27.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.50 0| 3| 97 110201/2100Z 45 04014KT 26.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.50 0| 6| 94 110201/2200Z 46 05016KT 27.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.031|| 0.51 0.00|| 0.00 0.03|| 0.54 0| 2| 98 110201/2300Z 47 05018KT 26.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.53 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.55 0| 1| 99 110202/0000Z 48 06018KT 27.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.031|| 0.56 0.00|| 0.00 0.03|| 0.59 0| 1| 99 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110202/0100Z 49 06019KT 27.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.142|| 0.70 0.00|| 0.00 0.15|| 0.74 0| 0|100 110202/0200Z 50 06018KT 28.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.114|| 0.81 0.00|| 0.00 0.12|| 0.86 0| 0|100 110202/0300Z 51 06019KT 28.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.157|| 0.97 0.00|| 0.00 0.17|| 1.02 0| 0|100 110202/0400Z 52 07020KT 28.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.161|| 1.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.17|| 1.19 0| 0|100 110202/0500Z 53 07018KT 30.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.209|| 1.34 0.00|| 0.00 0.22|| 1.41 0| 0|100 110202/0600Z 54 06014KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.102|| 1.44 0.00|| 0.00 0.11|| 1.52 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110202/0700Z 55 06014KT 32.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.039|| 1.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.04|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/0800Z 56 06012KT 32.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.071|| 1.56 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/0900Z 57 07011KT 32.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.059|| 1.61 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/1000Z 58 07009KT 32.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.024|| 1.64 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/1100Z 59 07006KT 32.4F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 1.65 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/1200Z 60 VRB02KT 32.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 1.66 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110202/1300Z 61 23010KT 33.1F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 1.67 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/1400Z 62 23013KT 32.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 1.67 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/1500Z 63 23014KT 30.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.008|| 1.68 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 110202/1600Z 64 24017KT 28.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.008|| 1.69 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 110202/1700Z 65 26018KT 26.6F SNOW 15:1| 0.1|| 0.2 0.008|| 1.70 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 110202/1800Z 66 27018KT 25.3F SNOW 20:1| 0.1|| 0.3 0.004|| 1.70 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110202/1900Z 67 28017KT 25.0F SNOW 22:1| 0.2|| 0.5 0.008|| 1.71 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 110202/2000Z 68 29017KT 24.1F SNOW 23:1| 0.2|| 0.7 0.008|| 1.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 110202/2100Z 69 29017KT 23.4F SNOW 23:1| 0.1|| 0.8 0.004|| 1.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 110202/2200Z 70 30016KT 22.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.8 0.000|| 1.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0| 0 110202/2300Z 71 30015KT 21.7F SNOW 22:1| 0.1|| 0.9 0.004|| 1.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well, the 12Z NAM buf kit has .25" of ZR in round 1, and .48" of ZR in round 2. Looking pretty nasty at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Both the nam and gfs appear to be picking up on a more potent first "punch" as well. Widespread .25 plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 for parts of eastern Ohio is now under a Winter storm warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1055 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 OHZ039-040-048>050-PAZ021-029-073>076-WVZ001-002-010000- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0003.110201T0000Z-110201T2200Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-ALLEGHENY- WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE- FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...HOPEDALE... STEUBENVILLE...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG... DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY... GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN... LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN... CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON... OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...TORONTO...WEIRTON 1055 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * ACCUMULATION: ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TONIGHT...MIX TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY...BUT MAY MIX BACK TO FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY TUESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATING ICE MAY CAUSE TREE LIMBS AND WIRES TO BREAK... MAKING POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i would imagine the gfs will be pretty similar to the nam. Incredibly close looking on the maps. 2m soundings should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not to get snow weenie, but just a hair colder would be at least 15" for CLE. Plenty of time yet for minor shifts south, hopefully frozen Erie is enough of a nudge to keep us all snow. The immediate lakeshore is going to be riding a fine line. Might be a case where 20 miles inland sees mixing while the lakeshore is snow -- I know, I'm a weenie. But, this storm will be moving almost due east after going through IN which would hopefully cut off the exteme WAA. A minor shift would do the trick. If anything, it may be a 3-4 window of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 as of right now, for cmh... probably something like this: wintry mix developing monday evening, (sleet, snow, frz rain), change to all freezing rain late with .2" ice accum by morning. Freezing rain tuesday moring with an additional .1" accum before changing to rain showers Tuesday late morning. Tuesday night rain redevelops becomes heavy at times thru the night. Rain transitiions to frz rain, sleet, then snow before ending wed afternoon. 1-3" snow possible. That's my conservative forecast. Based on what i see on models and my past experience with what the models show and how that usually interprets here in cmh. Biggest bust potential is colder surface temps and a much more significant ice storm. Possible bust potential is cold comes in quicker and we have heavier backside accums. I would probably go with a frz rain advisory monday night and tues morning and a winter wx advisory wednesday After seeing the 12z runs i'm still pretty comfortable with this /\ call for cmh. Might be conservative but I'm still not convinced we see a significant icestorm here. Maybe about 25 miles + north of i-71 is a diff story. Also think a frz rain advisory would cover tonight thru tomorrow morning. We'll see if anything changes at 18z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The immediate lakeshore is going to be riding a fine line. Might be a case where 20 miles inland sees mixing while the lakeshore is snow -- I know, I'm a weenie. But, this storm will be moving almost due east after going through IN which would hopefully cut off the exteme WAA. A minor shift would do the trick. If anything, it may be a 3-4 window of mixing. HUGE issue, how far north it gets into IN before going east. Gfs and nam are a bit more south (southern IN), ggem and uk take it almost to indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not to get snow weenie, but just a hair colder would be at least 15" for CLE. Plenty of time yet for minor shifts south, hopefully frozen Erie is enough of a nudge to keep us all snow. Wow. Just checked bufkit for the 12z NAM... that would be nasty - 6 inches front end, over an inch of pingers with freezing rain... and another 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 for parts of eastern Ohio is now under a Winter storm warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1055 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 OHZ039-040-048>050-PAZ021-029-073>076-WVZ001-002-010000- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0003.110201T0000Z-110201T2200Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-ALLEGHENY- WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE- FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...HOPEDALE... STEUBENVILLE...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG... DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY... GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN... LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN... CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON... OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...TORONTO...WEIRTON 1055 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * ACCUMULATION: ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TONIGHT...MIX TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY...BUT MAY MIX BACK TO FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY TUESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATING ICE MAY CAUSE TREE LIMBS AND WIRES TO BREAK... MAKING POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. && $ Also Columbiana county, Ohio, except 3-7" of snow there instead of 1-3" URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA1055 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011MDZ001-OHZ041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020-022-023-010000-/O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T1500Z//O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T1500Z/GARRETT-COLUMBIANA-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...SHARON...HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER...KITTANNING...FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA1055 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE...WHICHIS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THEWINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* ACCUMULATION: ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE. 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY... MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS: ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATING HEAVY WET SNOW AND ICE MAY CAUSE TREE LIMBS AND WIRES TO BREAK... MAKING POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVELVERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONSTO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLLFREE...1-877-633-6772.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The Bufkits are simply nasty! Right now I will go with the following: Subject change due to inconsistencies in the current modeling. Cincinnati including Hamilton, Clermont, Highlands and the northern Kentucky counties. - Precipitation will start as sleet and freezing rain with .10-.25 ICE accumulation possible by the time it changes to rain late Tuesday. It does look like that 2m temps stay below 32 through 6z Wednesday which means temperatures should go above freezing Tuesday night. The key word is SHOULD! Heavy rain and even a rumble of thunder with temperatures topping out around 35-36 degrees before cold air punches back in and we have 1-2 inches of backside snowfall. Northern Cincinnati Counties including Butler and Warren Counties- Precipitation will start as sleet and freezing rain and that freezing rain and sleet will last until the nighttime hours Tuesday before changing to rain late Tuesday night. By the time it changes expect anywhere from .50-.75 ice accumulation for this zone. We will transition back to snow with 1-2 inches possible Dayton/I 70 Corridor- This area will stay all frozen with heavy icing likely with .75-1.25 ice accumulation likely. Backside snows could amount to 1-3 inches for this zone. We'll see what happens again this subject to changes based on new data and now casting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The Bufkits are simply nasty! Right now I will go with the following: Subject change due to inconsistencies in the current modeling. Cincinnati including Hamilton, Clermont, Highlands and the northern Kentucky counties. - Precipitation will start as sleet and freezing rain with .10-.25 ICE accumulation possible by the time it changes to rain late Tuesday. It does look like that 2m temps stay below 32 through 6z Wednesday which means temperatures should go above freezing Tuesday night. The key word is SHOULD! Heavy rain and even a rumble of thunder with temperatures topping out around 35-36 degrees before cold air punches back in and we have 1-2 inches of backside snowfall. Northern Cincinnati Counties including Butler and Warren Counties- Precipitation will start as sleet and freezing rain and that freezing rain and sleet will last until the nighttime hours Tuesday before changing to rain late Tuesday night. By the time it changes expect anywhere from .50-.75 ice accumulation for this zone. We will transition back to snow with 1-2 inches possible Dayton/I 70 Corridor- This area will stay all frozen with heavy icing likely with .75-1.25 ice accumulation likely. Backside snows could amount to 1-3 inches for this zone. We'll see what happens again this subject to changes based on new data and now casting! Mad, how far east along i-70? you thinking all the way to cmh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Mad, how far east along i-70? you thinking all the way to cmh? Pretty much... The more east you are the harder it will be for the warm air to work in because the LOW will rapidly occlude. Thats the trend I am seeing on the models. You may be more east of the LOW but we got so much occlusion taking place that warm air is being sucked away. I think that is what the models are catching onto right now. I wouldn't be surprised at 18z and 00z to see the GFS go below 32 for the northern Cincy counties the entire time. We now have the CMC coming but you have no real text data to work with. The EURO you will have some and that model has been torchy to say the least but it did go colder and less bullish with the prolonged warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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