Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The low is occluding quicker. We get above 32 at 6z but I think we go back down at 12z...if the maps are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 HAO TUE 12Z 01-FEB -2.2 4.0 1020 96 92 0.13 558 542 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -0.6 3.8 1018 97 93 0.10 557 543 WED 00Z 02-FEB -0.7 3.8 1014 99 97 0.15 556 545 WED 06Z 02-FEB 3.3 5.5 999 100 99 0.80 549 550 WED 12Z 02-FEB -1.6 -8.3 998 94 48 0.10 535 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 TOL manages to win out again... 1.23" and counting already, all snow still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here's my updated forecast. The purple box represents the area that could see ice accretions >0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DAY TUE 12Z 01-FEB -3.7 3.1 1021 97 93 0.26 557 541 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -2.1 3.3 1020 97 97 0.07 557 541 WED 00Z 02-FEB -2.6 3.3 1016 98 95 0.11 555 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB 1.2 3.9 1001 100 100 0.74 550 549 WED 12Z 02-FEB -1.0 -8.0 997 96 46 0.19 535 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here's my updated forecast. The purple box represents the area that could see ice accretions >0.25". not sure I see 2-5" of snow , but Id take it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Findley north crippled with 15 inches of snow...Cleveland in a world of hurt with 6-8 inches of snow and ICE....WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The low is occluding quicker. We get above 32 at 6z but I think we go back down at 12z...if the maps are correct. amazing how quickly the 850s crash in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 amazing how quickly the 850s crash in from the west. Something to keep an eye on. Were less than 24hrs out and there is still no real consistency lol... No forecast is real solid right now for anyone of us. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Something to keep an eye on. Were less than 24hrs out and there is still no real consistency lol... No forecast is real solid right now for anyone of us. lol With the temps so close, who knows what can happen. Might come down to how long that high will stay in place and its power. This may decide ice vs rain situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 amazing how quickly the 850s crash in from the west. I don't like that we have heavy rain coming Tuesday night with an east wind. I guess we aren't starting far from freezing so it won't take a MAJOR push to get us to 32 but still...East wind supplying cool, dry air seems like trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ytown1425 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey all...I have been trying to follow along the thread the past couple days, but I'm not really good on all the model terminology. I was wondering what to expect in youngstown for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hmmm rapid occlusion on the ggem appears to changeover the w. 2/3rd of ohio pretty quickly. The gfs was also starting to hint at this on the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey all...I have been trying to follow along the thread the past couple days, but I'm not really good on all the model terminology. I was wondering what to expect in youngstown for this storm? freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 hmmm rapid occlusion on the ggem appears to changeover the w. 2/3rd of ohio pretty quickly. The gfs was also starting to hint at this on the 00z run Yea too bad it coulsnt overtake it as the precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ytown1425 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 freezing rain Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hmmm rapid occlusion on the ggem appears to changeover the w. 2/3rd of ohio pretty quickly. The gfs was also starting to hint at this on the 00z run Yeap.. Yet another hitch in the forecast. Any clue what to forecast right now?There is alot on the table right now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeap.. Yet another hitch in the forecast. Any clue what to forecast right now?There is alot on the table right now...... as of right now, for cmh... probably something like this: wintry mix developing monday evening, (sleet, snow, frz rain), change to all freezing rain late with .2" ice accum by morning. Freezing rain tuesday moring with an additional .1" accum before changing to rain showers Tuesday late morning. Tuesday night rain redevelops becomes heavy at times thru the night. Rain transitiions to frz rain, sleet, then snow before ending wed afternoon. 1-3" snow possible. That's my conservative forecast. Based on what i see on models and my past experience with what the models show and how that usually interprets here in cmh. Biggest bust potential is colder surface temps and a much more significant ice storm. Possible bust potential is cold comes in quicker and we have heavier backside accums. I would probably go with a frz rain advisory monday night and tues morning and a winter wx advisory wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i would add this. I don't have any experience with a storm heading into central IN and then occluding east. I have no idea what that translates into in terms of real wx here. Usually we have occlusions occur with a primary over us or just south of us occluding to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i would add this. I don't have any experience with a storm heading into central IN and then occluding east. I have no idea what that translates into in terms of real wx here. Usually we have occlusions occur with a primary over us or just south of us occluding to the coast. Its a complicated forecast.. Here was mine that I posted earlier around 1130.. Well the latest model guidance has trended a bit colder and the models still do not agree on the exact track of the low pressure system. That is very critical to the forecast right now. There is also lots of cold air involved with this storm system and its going to fight hard to stay entrenched across the region. I will not have a solid forecast on this storm system till Monday afternoon. My first call is as follows: Cincinnati/Northern KY- Light sleet and freezing rain during the onset but you should switch to rain by Tuesday morning with less than .25 ICE accumulation. Back end snows could amount to 1-2 inches. Butler and Warren Counties- Sleet and freezing rain will overspread the region Monday night and last through the day on Tuesday and the question that needs to be hammered out is when do we switch to rain? I say after 10am right now. By that time we will see between .25-.50 ice accumulation for the area. Backend snows of 1-2 inches are possible in this zone too. Montgomery, Preble to I 70- This right now is the danger zone of seeing a crippling ice storm with .50-1.00 of ice accumulation possible with again 1-2 inch snows on the back side. Again rest assure I am still not ready to push the panic button to tell folks to go get batteries etc. Its still a bit premature because there is absolutely no consistency in the model data right now and this has been one tough storm to track. I will be back with another update during the morning hours and again Monday afternoon. By that time I feel we should have a good handle on the situation. Stay tuned! Weather Outlooks will return tomorrow night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro is sticking to slightly warmer surface temps around 30 or 31. Less QPF also through Tues. morning than GFS/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 just to show how close some of us are.. Im like 40 miles south of 6-8 inches on this map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 EURO showing ice or sleet for CLE this run as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The difference between FDY and other stations looks to be insane... All sorts of P-types with FDY... DFI gets at least 11", TOL with about 12"+ on the ECMWF. I'm right about in between all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm really liking the chances of this staying all frozen... in one form or another. All models have locked in to the idea of radid occlusion. Lots of surprises in store with this storm I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 EURO showing ice or sleet for CLE this run as well... Thanks for the update on CLE btw. much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm really liking the chances of this staying all frozen... in one form or another. All models have locked in to the idea of radid occlusion. Lots of surprises in store with this storm I'm guessing. with as tight as the temp gradient it, you bet. I am only 40 miles from 6-8" and 50 miles from 10-12" so its tight.. even a small shift south when it comes through could have huge impacts. Thanks for the update on CLE btw. much appreciated. TUE 06Z 01-FEB -5.6 -1.9 1024 84 83 0.02 555 536 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -6.0 -2.4 1023 91 95 0.20 555 537 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -4.6 -1.1 1023 86 85 0.04 556 539 WED 00Z 02-FEB -5.4 -0.5 1020 88 85 0.07 555 539 WED 06Z 02-FEB -2.7 0.8 1010 92 97 0.33 552 543 WED 12Z 02-FEB 0.1 2.5 1001 94 48 0.40 541 540 WED 18Z 02-FEB -2.5 -12.0 1007 66 38 0.03 533 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 BUFKIT was up to 19.2" for TOL last update... Local mets downplaying this big time. Only going with 6-12" (When it will likley be more like 10-15"+ north of Findlay. Local NWS going with at least 11-18" right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think most of CLE's snows will come from the front end WAA thump overnight tonight. Could be an easy 6 inches, with just slop afterward. NAM has a half inch of ice and sleet falling at CLE for the overnight hours on Tuesday into Wednesday. That's pretty much the worst time for an ice storm. Ice will be easy to accumulate and also corresponds to the peak winds of the storm. The morning commute tomorrow will be awful with the quick dump of WAA snows, and forget about Wednesday mornings commute as traffic signals will be inoperable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 CMH on the 12z NAM has a LOT of ice! Looks like about an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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