buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Snow or rain. NO ICE! If this is anything like December 2004 it is really going to suck. Go northwest! Go northwest! Anything but ice-there will be other storms this year to root for! Let Chicago/Milwaukee get a damn blizzard, as long as we do not get ice. Dec '04 was brutal. Temps dropped in the single digits and teens after everyone lost power. Many people were without power for a week or more. We were lucky here. But I had friends who had to turn off the water in their houses and head to hotels. Yea, it ain't to fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Snow or rain. NO ICE! If this is anything like December 2004 it is really going to suck. Go northwest! Go northwest! Anything but ice-there will be other storms this year to root for! Let Chicago/Milwaukee get a damn blizzard, as long as we do not get ice. Track will wobble a bit in the next model runs...but I think it is certain that areas of N central OH and western OH will see a significant ice storm. I think central OH will see minor ice before the WTOD overtakes us and we get a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Lorain all snow CLE pretty much all snow and my house is right in between...I may be coming home to a monster lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 66 hrs out for placement of low near cincy. Think we can get a 50-75 mile southeast shift in that timeframe? I like it just about the way it is... heaviest QPF but just a little warm towards FDY. Gotta flirt with the ice line to get the heavies snows, right? Anyways... GEFS was even better then the OP. Likley 18" or so around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No question there will be mixing. I really can't remember any significant sleet storms in NE OH and i've lived here my whole life. I'm hoping for a nice front end dump to ease the pain. The 12z GFS was interesting in that the low occludes and rapidly moves off to the NE. I wonder if the this will be a trend. I believe the faster the low occludes the better chance there is to keep the cold air in place. Just getting up to speed after a sunday sales meeting Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like the 18z models may have taken a step in this direction? My weenie eyes may be deceiving me but it looked that way. Tonights run should tell the story. Hopefully the trend, if there is one, to a more SE solution continues. It's been this way all year... no reason it can't happen. Per the 18z GFS, around hour 66 looks trashy but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Dec '04 was brutal. Temps dropped in the single digits and teens after everyone lost power. Many people were without power for a week or more. We were lucky here. But I had friends who had to turn off the water in their houses and head to hotels. Yea, it ain't to fun I used to work in physical therapy, and our busiest times were always after ice events-so many people slipping on ice and breaking bones, particularly the elderly. At one time we had two elderly patients with multiple fractures-just becaused(as the elderly tend to be headstrong and all) they just HAD to get to their mailboxes, attempting to cross a sheet of ice to do so. I hate icestorms! If we do have some hellacious icestorm, I hope everyone will try and remind people(particularly the elderly) to just stay the hell inside and to make plans with friends, neighbors, relatives, etc. ahead of time in case there are power outages, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I like it just about the way it is... heaviest QPF but just a little warm towards FDY. Gotta flirt with the ice line to get the heavies snows, right? Anyways... GEFS was even better then the OP. Likley 18" or so around here. Don't be so greedy. A few other folks in OH would like to share in your feet of snow as well. I mentioned this before... you are in a great spot for this storm. I'd sit back and relax if I were in your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z UKMET has a 990 mb low over St Louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z UKMET has a 990 mb low over St Louis yup takes it to central IN then occludes it to central OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 CLE going with 8-12" which is extremely gutsy for Cleveland. I think sleet will kill that number in half. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 314 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM TO HIT THE REGION... .A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-047-089-310415- /O.NEW.KCLE.WS.A.0001.110201T0300Z-110202T1200Z/ LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT- PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-HOLMES-KNOX- ASHTABULA LAKESHORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LORAIN...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON... JEFFERSON...MEDINA...AKRON...RAVENNA...WARREN...ASHLAND... WOOSTER...CANTON...YOUNGSTOWN...MILLERSBURG...MOUNT VERNON... ASHTABULA 314 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING ALONG A WARM FRONT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF SNOW. THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SURGE OF SNOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD A SECOND SURGE OF SNOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SNOW COULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL FREEZING RAIN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND OR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER SOURCE FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && $ Their forecast makes no sense. They have northeast Ohio getting 6 to 8 inches Tuesday night, but northwest Ohio only getting 2 to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yup takes it to central IN then occludes it to central OH Where do you get the 18z run past 60 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just getting up to speed after a sunday sales meeting Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like the 18z models may have taken a step in this direction? My weenie eyes may be deceiving me but it looked that way. Tonights run should tell the story. Hopefully the trend, if there is one, to a more SE solution continues. It's been this way all year... no reason it can't happen. Per the 18z GFS, around hour 66 looks trashy but that's about it. Hmm... we had quite a bit of sleet in I believe it was March 07 around YNG. I think there was a big storm with a lot of heavy snow at first, but it transitioned to heavy sleet which was accompanied by thunder and lightning for a while right ahead of a giant dry slot. I think the Blizzard of 99 was a pretty big sleet storm -- but that one was way different than this event because temps were in the single digits when the storm hit... there was a lot more cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Where do you get the 18z run past 60 hours? http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grb-comp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grb-comp.html You sure that isn't the 12z? I'm on Plymouth and when I plot the 60 hour map, it doesn't look like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hmm... we had quite a bit of sleet in I believe it was March 07 around YNG. I think there was a big storm with a lot of heavy snow at first, but it transitioned to heavy sleet which was accompanied by thunder and lightning for a while right ahead of a giant dry slot. I think the Blizzard of 99 was a pretty big sleet storm -- but that one was way different than this event because temps were in the single digits when the storm hit... there was a lot more cold air available. I was referring to the CLE area. If I remember that storm correctly.... YNG was right on the cut off of the heavy snow. The gradient was pretty crazy... 15-17 in the CLE area while a county or two southeast around YNG much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You sure that isn't the 12z? I'm on Plymouth and when I plot the 60 hour map, it doesn't look like this: this is what i get: would 6am tuesday be 60 hr 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here is my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I like it just about the way it is... heaviest QPF but just a little warm towards FDY. Gotta flirt with the ice line to get the heavies snows, right? Anyways... GEFS was even better then the OP. Likley 18" or so around here. oh c'mon man you can definitely spare a 50 or 75 miles south shift.....probably be even better for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Don't be so greedy. A few other folks in OH would like to share in your feet of snow as well. I mentioned this before... you are in a great spot for this storm. I'd sit back and relax if I were in your location. Yeah... a SE shift would be welcomed here too... don't mind being 40-50 miles from the ice line, but 25miles is cutting it awfully close oh c'mon man you can definitely spare a 50 or 75 miles south shift.....probably be even better for you. Yep. 18z GFS BUFKIT was 17.7" for FDY... 17" for TOL... even some foot plus in CLE too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 oh c'mon man you can definitely spare a 50 or 75 miles south shift.....probably be even better for you. lol. i said the same thing. What are the chances this storm can occlude fast enough to give the central and northern part of the state primarily frozen? I'd say 50/50 at this point. I realize this storm is different than what we've seen. There's a massive high pressing down behind this... you would think this would prevent the low from taking a hard NE track keeping it more easterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 this is what i get: would 6am tuesday be 60 hr 18z? I don't know. The time stamp on Plymouth is screwy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well the only halfway decent TV met here just said the low was going to Fort Wayne... wonder where he got that from. Other station calling for around 4-8" for Toledo... haven't seen any guidance that low so far north yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well the only halfway decent TV met here just said the low was going to Fort Wayne... wonder where he got that from. Other station calling for around 4-8" for Toledo... haven't seen any guidance that low so far north yet. a low to ft wayne would screw up a lot of forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 a low to ft wayne would screw up a lot of forecasts... It's been hinted at on some runs. Really quite a bit to be sorted out as far as how fast it deepens and occludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 a low to ft wayne would screw up a lot of forecasts... ...but a godsend for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ...but a godsend for us. disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Barring Dramatic changes and based on the temp shifts on the both the nam and gfs, this is my final call. As stated before this is barring any sudden changes, in which case I will update. But as for now, this will be my final map for the storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 I can not ever remember seeing a single storm that puts out this many watches.. My lord 2/3 of the US lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Barring Dramatic changes and based on the temp shifts on the both the nam and gfs, this is my final call. As stated before this is barring any sudden changes, in which case I will update. But as for now, this will be my final map for the storm.. Oh goodie, you have me in the "devestating ice storm!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Oh goodie, you have me in the "devestating ice storm!" Latest guidance gives nearly an Inch of ICE. The further east you go the less chance for it to be devastating which is why I used the word "Possible" I have my location in it too, but youre more likely than me, based on temp profiles. Its a possibility that I stay warm enough to only have to deal with .25 of ice and then change to rain, which will melt the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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