OHSnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.meteor.ia...odel=namm&site= Here's what the Cobb table shows for northern Ohio for the NAM. Toledo 3.1" from 1st wave, 15.5" from 2nd wave. Total 18.6" Findlay 2.8" from 1st wave, 3.0" from 2nd wave. Total 5.8" Mansfield 3.2" from 1st wave, 1.3" from 2nd wave. Total 4.5" Cleveland 1.8" from 1st wave, 2.5" from 2nd wave. Total 4.3" Canton/Akron 7.9" from 1st wave, 0.9" from 2nd wave. Total 8.8" Youngstown 4.1" from 1st wave, 1.7" from 2nd wave. Total 5.8" Some other nearby locales Detroit 3.6" from 1st wave, 18.4" from 2nd wave. Total 22.0" Chicago O'Hare 2.0" from 1st wave, 31.1" from 2nd wave Total 33.1" Chicago Midway 1.6" from 1st wave, 34.5" from 2nd wave Total 36.1" Pittsburgh 1.0" from 1st wave, 0.9" from 2nd wave total 1.9" Columbus Just one wave (1.6") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.meteor.ia...odel=namm&site= Here's what the Cobb table shows for northern Ohio for the NAM. Toledo 3.1" from 1st wave, 15.5" from 2nd wave. Total 18.6" Findlay 2.8" from 1st wave, 3.0" from 2nd wave. Total 5.8" Mansfield 3.2" from 1st wave, 1.3" from 2nd wave. Total 4.5" Cleveland 1.8" from 1st wave, 2.5" from 2nd wave. Total 4.3" Canton/Akron 7.9" from 1st wave, 0.9" from 2nd wave. Total 8.8" Youngstown 4.1" from 1st wave, 1.7" from 2nd wave. Total 5.8" Some other nearby locales Detroit 3.6" from 1st wave, 18.4" from 2nd wave. Total 22.0" Chicago O'Hare 2.0" from 1st wave, 31.1" from 2nd wave Total 33.1" Chicago Midway 1.6" from 1st wave, 34.5" from 2nd wave Total 36.1" Pittsburgh 1.0" from 1st wave, 0.9" from 2nd wave total 1.9" Columbus Just one wave (1.6") those totals from the Chitown Midway make me wanna puke.. lol.. I could only imagine 36" from one storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z gfs a tiny bit colder as well... baby steps....or maybe just a baby wobbling lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z gfs a tiny bit colder as well... baby steps....or maybe just a baby wobbling lol Baby steps to what? A massive ice storm? Lol.. Throw the towel in lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Baby steps to what? A massive ice storm? Lol.. Throw the towel in lol.. 240 hr gfs, 240 hr gfs, 240 hr gfs............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 240 hr gfs, 240 hr gfs, 240 hr gfs............... Sorry not following.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18 z gfs is a little se and colder...CLE too close to call but monster icestorm south of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Baby steps to what? A massive ice storm? Lol.. Throw the towel in lol.. yea exactly ... fwiw...about 25 miles south with the low....actually ends up in MD vs. nw PA at 72. Small details, but honestly the effects of this storm will be measured in increments under 25 miles in spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z gfs a tiny bit colder as well... baby steps....or maybe just a baby wobbling lol gfs takes surface low pretty much due east/southeast from indiana to western maryland. 18z! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18 z gfs is a little se and colder...CLE too close to call but monster icestorm south of there yea extreme n. ohio is looking better on the nam and gfs 18z runs for mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well the 18z data has came in way colder and puts Dayton, Hamilton and Wilmington back in the thick of a Major Ice Storm. .50-1.00 ICE on Tuesday. I am going to wait till 00z to see if this is a hiccup or something that I need to alert the city about asap...Not models are playing games and the worse game they can play is whether or not your going to get a serious ice storm or not. If it was snow no biggy but ice isn't anything you screw around with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Lorain OH 30 miles west of Cleveland is basically all snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sorry not following.. that fantasy storm that keeps us hoping. It had an apps runner on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z GFS IMBY TUE 06Z 01-FEB -2.0 3.6 1021 95 99 0.04 558 542 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -2.0 3.1 1020 98 87 0.29 559 543 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -1.0 2.8 1019 97 89 0.26 559 543 WED 00Z 02-FEB -0.9 3.2 1015 99 99 0.39 557 545 WED 06Z 02-FEB 0.9 3.7 1004 100 100 0.66 554 550 WED 12Z 02-FEB 2.9 -1.1 999 99 32 0.27 540 541 WED 18Z 02-FEB -2.9 -10.1 1006 90 93 0.05 535 531 1.00 of ice before rain comes... THU 00Z 03-FEB -6.5 -12.5 1019 95 81 0.03 542 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 CBUS TUE 06Z 01-FEB -3.6 1.9 1022 93 99 0.01 557 540 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -2.9 2.8 1020 96 95 0.11 558 542 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -1.4 2.5 1021 94 74 0.06 559 542 WED 00Z 02-FEB -1.6 2.8 1018 96 100 0.18 558 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB -0.1 2.9 1009 100 98 0.55 555 548 WED 12Z 02-FEB 2.0 4.3 999 100 22 0.38 543 544 WED 18Z 02-FEB -1.3 -9.2 1004 92 86 0.02 535 532 THU 00Z 03-FEB -6.7 -10.2 1014 97 81 0.03 539 528OUCH!!! About the same situation as me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z GFS IMBY TUE 06Z 01-FEB -2.0 3.6 1021 95 99 0.04 558 542 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -2.0 3.1 1020 98 87 0.29 559 543 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -1.0 2.8 1019 97 89 0.26 559 543 WED 00Z 02-FEB -0.9 3.2 1015 99 99 0.39 557 545 WED 06Z 02-FEB 0.9 3.7 1004 100 100 0.66 554 550 WED 12Z 02-FEB 2.9 -1.1 999 99 32 0.27 540 541 WED 18Z 02-FEB -2.9 -10.1 1006 90 93 0.05 535 531 1.00 of ice before rain comes... THU 00Z 03-FEB -6.5 -12.5 1019 95 81 0.03 542 527 and barely above freezing for the next .5" 1 or 2 degree model error or change is HUGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 yea exactly ... fwiw...about 25 miles south with the low....actually ends up in MD vs. nw PA at 72. Small details, but honestly the effects of this storm will be measured in increments under 25 miles in spread. so youre wanting an ice storm then? cause a 25 mile shift isnt going to put us in snow. About 100 miles shift southeast and it would be possible, but highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Dilly could you post CLE, Looks like it should be mostly snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 so youre wanting an ice storm then? cause a 25 mile shift isnt going to put us in snow. About 100 miles shift southeast and it would be possible, but highly unlikely. no don't want icestorm.....just stating what i see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 TUE 06Z 01-FEB -2.6 1.6 1022 97 99 0.02 558 540 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -0.1 2.6 1020 98 97 0.12 559 542 TUE 18Z 01-FEB 0.3 3.0 1020 98 83 0.20 559 543 WED 00Z 02-FEB -0.5 3.0 1019 97 99 0.16 559 544 WED 06Z 02-FEB 0.3 2.7 1010 100 98 0.29 556 548 WED 12Z 02-FEB 2.7 5.7 999 100 38 0.43 546 546 WED 18Z 02-FEB 0.3 -8.7 1004 91 41 0.02 537 534 THU 00Z 03-FEB -3.0 -9.2 1012 97 89 0.04 538 529 THU 06Z 03-FEB -6.9 -14.7 1024 94 81 0.01 543 525 THU 12Z 03-FEB -9.7 -12.6 1030 94 57 0.01 547 524 850's are still way warm.. would need quite a temp erroe to overcome the 3.0 and the 5.7 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Dilly could you post CLE, Looks like it should be mostly snow on this run. get close when bulk falls but if anything other than snow it'd be sleet in the bolded area. TUE 06Z 01-FEB -6.6 -3.6 1025 96 96 0.01 554 534 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -6.7 -2.9 1024 97 97 0.22 554 535 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -4.6 -3.1 1024 95 77 0.04 555 537 WED 00Z 02-FEB -6.1 -2.2 1024 96 81 0.02 556 538 WED 06Z 02-FEB -4.5 -1.1 1016 98 99 0.30 553 540 WED 12Z 02-FEB -2.2 0.3 1003 97 99 0.51 544 542 WED 18Z 02-FEB -1.7 -4.0 1002 98 74 0.09 535 534 THU 00Z 03-FEB -7.3 -10.7 1011 96 92 0.07 535 526 THU 06Z 03-FEB -8.6 -14.6 1023 95 95 0.01 540 523 THU 12Z 03-FEB -9.0 -11.7 1029 99 57 0.01 544 523 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 no don't want icestorm.....just stating what i see. well you said baby steps like you want that shift, so I assumed you wanted an ice storm.. So what are your thoughts with a 25 miles shift? I am still thinking the low would need to go due east from about southern IL to have a shot at a snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 well you said baby steps like you want that shift, so I assumed you wanted an ice storm.. So what are your thoughts with a 25 miles shift? I am still thinking the low would need to go due east from about southern IL to have a shot at a snow storm. we could have a quicker change over or maybe be more 'sleety' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I know we don't do well with backend snows...but any hope of a few inches after the warm up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 I know we don't do well with backend snows...but any hope of a few inches after the warm up? I think our only chance now is hoping this thing gets in to southern IL and goes due east.. Maybe even 50 miles south of that and then due east to WV before making the turn.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm with buckeye...if it ain't gonna be snow, bring on the rain. Being without power will be fun for like a minute. Just when I was hoping for a NW trend the thing comes SE, ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS about as good as it can get around here... Only place in NWOH that would having any sleet would be FDY... TOL ends up with about 15-17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm with buckeye...if it ain't gonna be snow, bring on the rain. Being without power will be fun for like a minute. Just when I was hoping for a NW trend the thing comes SE, ugh. especially in the winter. When it happens in the warm seasons at least you can go sit out on the porch and kick back with a beer and a cigar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS about as good as it can get around here... Only place in NWOH that would having any sleet would be FDY... TOL ends up with about 15-17" 66 hrs out for placement of low near cincy. Think we can get a 50-75 mile southeast shift in that timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Snow or rain. NO ICE! If this is anything like December 2004 it is really going to suck. Go northwest! Go northwest! Anything but ice-there will be other storms this year to root for! Let Chicago/Milwaukee get a damn blizzard, as long as we do not get ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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