pondo1000 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yup...further south with 540 and 850 0....fairly significant shift south from 12z. Looks like ice threat increasing here again I aint buying it, the 18z nam for the last 2 days has been doing weird things whlie its 0z and 12 z runs have been more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 As I was telling Buckeye, this isn't our storm but the next 10-15 days are going to be exciting. We have 2 storms coming to track, that both are dropping over an inch qpf. So, while this storm sucks for most of us, I think we are in a favorable pattern for a major winter storm. That being said. Look at it this way. The previous pattern, we were getting blocked from everything. We had storms rocking until they reached OH and then fizzled to nothing, so while it sucks that this storm may be rain/zr this is the setup we need to have the shot at getting a big storm. Also the pattern for central OH, at least, has been to get a little snow and then a little rain with the next system. So there is a good chance we see one, possibly two major storms within the next 10-15 days. Local mets down here in Kentucky have been talking about an Upper Level Low type storm for Friday and Saturday, although I have yet to see the GFS catch on that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I aint buying it, the 18z nam for the last 2 days has been doing weird things whlie its 0z and 12 z runs have been more consistent. Well, the storm is still on track. I think what could happen is we start modelling colder for the front precip thump. Afterall, that will be more under the influence of the pressing cold so if the HP is stronger, (which it is on the nam), the low level cold could be as well....until the storm moves in of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well, the storm is still on track. I think what could happen is we start modelling colder for the front precip thump. Afterall, that will be more under the influence of the pressing cold so if the HP is stronger, (which it is on the nam), the low level cold could be as well....until the storm moves in of course. I would almost guarantee that on the 0z run you will see that high weaker. I know I have no idea what I am talking about. This is just a hunch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 will have to verify soundings but i believe the vast majority if not all of this falls with subfreezing surface temps here in central ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z NAM has a significant ice event for I-70. I am about 30 miles north of I-70..licking county..Not sure what to think!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z NAM has a significant ice event for I-70. wxdude... you got soundings for 18z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Western burbs of Cleveland look to be mostly snow on this run...only iffy hrs are between 66 and 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 baro is saying this run of the NAM is bunk because of the huge westward start of the troph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ok..we have a WSW out..but calls for mostly rain..Now i am back rooting for a se trend..JUST FREAKIN SHOOT ME!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 welp... PIT goes with WSW for me THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATION: 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF ICE. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 welp... PIT goes with WSW for me THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATION: 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF ICE. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ILN has pretty weak wording...sounds like they barely pulled the trigger. .25 ice and inch of sleet and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Buckeye, I seem to recall a storm 2 years ago similar to this set up except it was over us. I remember cleveland firing the gun and puting out watches for 8-12" for fredericktown and It shifted the day before to screw us all.. correct.. btw here is my call for the start as we stand now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 baro is saying this run of the NAM is bunk because of the huge westward start of the troph. Well of course..anything se is garbage..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well of course..anything se is garbage..lol It isnt now.. He just said the 18z nam went west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 CLE going with 8-12" which is extremely gutsy for Cleveland. I think sleet will kill that number in half. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 314 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM TO HIT THE REGION... .A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-047-089-310415- /O.NEW.KCLE.WS.A.0001.110201T0300Z-110202T1200Z/ LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT- PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-HOLMES-KNOX- ASHTABULA LAKESHORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LORAIN...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON... JEFFERSON...MEDINA...AKRON...RAVENNA...WARREN...ASHLAND... WOOSTER...CANTON...YOUNGSTOWN...MILLERSBURG...MOUNT VERNON... ASHTABULA 314 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING ALONG A WARM FRONT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF SNOW. THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SURGE OF SNOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD A SECOND SURGE OF SNOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SNOW COULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL FREEZING RAIN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND OR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER SOURCE FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM soundings.. I think these are the updated ones, But I never checked the 12z, whi I think these may be the 12z.. Regardless there was a temp drop from 0z last night. CMH MON 7P 31-JAN -2.8 0.0 1024 95 70 0.01 559 540 TUE 1A 01-FEB -2.6 2.3 1022 96 69 0.02 558 541 TUE 7A 01-FEB -1.7 3.3 1021 97 93 0.07 559 543 TUE 1P 01-FEB -0.3 3.8 1020 95 95 0.19 560 544 TUE 7P 01-FEB -0.9 6.0 1016 97 81 0.07 559 546 WED 1A 02-FEB 2.0 6.0 1005 98 99 0.30 555 551 WED 7A 02-FEB 6.2 4.4 998 100 36 0.55 542 543 WED 1P 02-FEB -1.4 -12.5 1004 81 66 0.03 533 530 WED 7P 02-FEB -3.4 -13.2 1013 88 87 0.04 538 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Trent with this latest NAM 850s are south of you except somewhere between hr 66 and 72.....your gonna be cuttin it darn close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Trent with this latest NAM 850s are south of you except somewhere between hr 66 and 72.....your gonna be cuttin it darn close CLE when bulk falls WED 1A 02-FEB -2.9 3.8 1011 93 98 0.25 553 544 WED 7A 02-FEB -0.3 3.4 1000 96 87 0.82 543 543 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Buckeye, I seem to recall a storm 2 years ago similar to this set up except it was over us. I remember cleveland firing the gun and puting out watches for 8-12" for fredericktown and It shifted the day before to screw us all.. correct.. btw here is my call for the start as we stand now. I'd shift the thunderstorms possible area north... I think thunderstorms are possible as far north as St. Louis, Chicago, and Detroit with this storm. Strong dynamics aloft and unseasonable amount of Gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 you are that isnt the 12z dilly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like an inch of freezing rain on the 18Z NAM bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like an inch of freezing rain on the 18Z NAM bufkit. nam has been the warmest too correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 nam has been the warmest too correct? Yes. I believe the 12Z NAM had less than .25" of freezing rain. Now it's worse than the 12Z GFS which I believe had .63" on freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like an inch of freezing rain on the 18Z NAM bufkit. The 12z was discounted so I can't imagine the 18z is any Better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yeah NAM has been the warmest I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 rgem says plain rain by 36 hours..... i don't know how well it does in this regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'd shift the thunderstorms possible area north... I think thunderstorms are possible as far north as St. Louis, Chicago, and Detroit with this storm. Strong dynamics aloft and unseasonable amount of Gulf moisture. The yellow on my map are severe thunderstorms.. I didn't include that into the snow area.. That'd be a hassle trying to explain a yellow strip for thunderstorms where snow is supposed to be happening. Yes I know thundersnow and all, but for the sake of confusion, I just went with heavy snow over there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 CLE NWS basically says Lorain county to Marion is the cutoff of snow/mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wxdude... you got soundings for 18z so far Sorry I missed that. I'm out on my iPod so its harder To get all the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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