AppsRunner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Still barely holding on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the trend the past few days has not been in our favor for significant snows. The potential for ice looks serious, but it could be a big sleet storm. I'm not familiar with sleet or sleet storms, but would 3/4 to an inch of sleet even be that big of a deal? It's once we start talking freezing rain that I get worried. No question there will be mixing. I really can't remember any significant sleet storms in NE OH and i've lived here my whole life. I'm hoping for a nice front end dump to ease the pain. The 12z GFS was interesting in that the low occludes and rapidly moves off to the NE. I wonder if the this will be a trend. I believe the faster the low occludes the better chance there is to keep the cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Trends on this storm are becoming MUCH more favorable for avoiding a paralyzing ice storm. We may yet escape it and get mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I have a lay over in MDW on my way back from the west coast on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Trends on this storm are becoming MUCH more favorable for avoiding a paralyzing ice storm. We may yet escape it and get mostly rain. i agree....an icestorm is exciting for about 6 hours, then lack of electricity beyond that really sux. If we can't have snow, bring on rain. I don't even want to see sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i figured ILN would hoist watches this afternoon for tomorrow aft and night. Not so sure after seeing the gfs....might just get a frz rain advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Because Toledo is CLE's ugly cousin They will probably put up a watches later today. I assume they are waiting for the 12z models to come out. Be interesting to see what the GFS and Euro come up with. NAM shows alot of ice along the lakeshore... which is very rare. 14.9" for TOL for the GFS... 14.3" for FDY with 1/3" of Freezing Rain, 2/3" of sleet. Everything but the kitchen sink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i figured ILN would hoist watches this afternoon for tomorrow aft and night. Not so sure after seeing the gfs....might just get a frz rain advisory Looking at the GFS bufkit, I disagree. Even as far west as it came (basically the same as the Euro now), it still gives us .62" of freezing rain which is more than enough for WSW's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Trends on this storm are becoming MUCH more favorable for avoiding a paralyzing ice storm. We may yet escape it and get mostly rain. Yeah, I can't see this being a major ice producer. There is NO cold air anywhere... before the Blizz of 99, temps were below zero! This 20s and 30s weather will scour out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeSam Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looking at the GFS bufkit, I disagree. Even as far west as it came (basically the same as the Euro now), it still gives us .62" of freezing rain which is more than enough for WSW's here. Yeah, I bet we get a watch posted this afternoon, then it will transition into a winter weather advisory on each side of our rain storm. Even if we do get a lot of zr unless surface temps are really down into the 20's it doesn't seem to have that much of an impact. At least in the city. Could be a lot different in the rural areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I have a lay over in MDW on my way back from the west coast on Thursday Ouch. So you won't even be here for the snow/sleet/frzrain event then? 12z GFS was 10.1" of snow turning to sleet Tuesday evenint, then turning into freezing rain during the overnight hours of Tuesday into Wednesday, with accretions around .54" turning back to snow for another inch or two. Considering the freezing rain is most likely going to be during the overnight hours, the impacts will be huge if it verifies. Oh and if the NW trend continues another 60 miles or so, CLE will be one of only a few handful of climate stations in the US that is running a snowfall deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Ohio Valley bus is crashing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Because Toledo is CLE's ugly cousin They will probably put up a watches later today. I assume they are waiting for the 12z models to come out. Be interesting to see what the GFS and Euro come up with. NAM shows alot of ice along the lakeshore... which is very rare. Take a look at the satellite shot of Erie. For the most part 95% iced over. That could have significant implications for the storm, specifically keeping surface temps below freezing for an ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ouch. So you won't even be here for the snow/sleet/frzrain event then? 12z GFS was 10.1" of snow turning to sleet Tuesday evenint, then turning into freezing rain during the overnight hours of Tuesday into Wednesday, with accretions around .54" turning back to snow for another inch or two. Considering the freezing rain is most likely going to be during the overnight hours, the impacts will be huge if it verifies. Oh and if the NW trend continues another 60 miles or so, CLE will be one of only a few handful of climate stations in the US that is running a snowfall deficit. I'll be flying back on Wednesday... or stuck in an airport somewhere. I'm still thinking a more SE solution will verify. The trends aren't good but I'm going weenie on this one. I think the best bet is for the low to weaken and slide more to the E than NE... should cut off the WAA to some extent. The 12GFS would be a mess... better than pure rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Take a look at the satellite shot of Erie. For the most part 95% iced over. That could have significant implications for the storm, specifically keeping surface temps below freezing for an ice event. Exactly. The frozen lake is our friend in situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Exactly. The frozen lake is our friend in situations like this. Looks like the euro went west a bit. I don't think it would take much freezing rain around here to be a crippling event, considering the number/age/size of trees in Cuyahoga County. At least if I'm without power for a week I won't hear or see pictures of the heavy snows. It is storms such as this one where I really don't feel midwestern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It is storms like this that make me just not want to care about winter..Hurry up spring!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Ohio Valley bus is crashing... It crashed days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 TOL gets 14" on the ECMWF... FDY with a ice to snow situation... DFI/TDZ similar to TOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Trends on this storm are becoming MUCH more favorable for avoiding a paralyzing ice storm. We may yet escape it and get mostly rain. Yep. Although I think some ice accum. up to .25" is possible before we go above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 As I was telling Buckeye, this isn't our storm but the next 10-15 days are going to be exciting. We have 2 storms coming to track, that both are dropping over an inch qpf. So, while this storm sucks for most of us, I think we are in a favorable pattern for a major winter storm. That being said. Look at it this way. The previous pattern, we were getting blocked from everything. We had storms rocking until they reached OH and then fizzled to nothing, so while it sucks that this storm may be rain/zr this is the setup we need to have the shot at getting a big storm. Also the pattern for central OH, at least, has been to get a little snow and then a little rain with the next system. So there is a good chance we see one, possibly two major storms within the next 10-15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM had issues with trough placement HPC is throwing it out as an error. Northern Ohio there is still hope!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OK..I am so confused..Just a couple hours ago accuweather had us at 43 for wed..now its 33..still calling for ice and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OK..Is it just me or does this still looks to close to really call it quits..i mean its on top of us!! http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=3&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm thinking ILN should go WSW for I-70 on north. Might need to downgrade to FRA but still worth it to play it safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 As I was telling Buckeye, this isn't our storm but the next 10-15 days are going to be exciting. We have 2 storms coming to track, that both are dropping over an inch qpf. So, while this storm sucks for most of us, I think we are in a favorable pattern for a major winter storm. That being said. Look at it this way. The previous pattern, we were getting blocked from everything. We had storms rocking until they reached OH and then fizzled to nothing, so while it sucks that this storm may be rain/zr this is the setup we need to have the shot at getting a big storm. Also the pattern for central OH, at least, has been to get a little snow and then a little rain with the next system. So there is a good chance we see one, possibly two major storms within the next 10-15 days. there's the right attitude....bring 'er on on another note, i see CLE pulled the trigger on their southern most counties....as close as Marion. I'm guessing ILN goes with a watch for fairfield, madison, pickaway, franklin on north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 850s are still around mansfield at hr 54 of the NAM....colder run thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z NAM has a significant ice event for I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 850s are still around mansfield at hr 54 of the NAM....colder run thus far yup...further south with 540 and 850 0....fairly significant shift south from 12z. Looks like ice threat increasing here again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yup...further south with 540 and 850 0....fairly significant shift south from 12z. Looks like ice threat increasing here again not sure why, but it looks like it's pushing the trough further east then12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.