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January 31-February 2 Major Winter Storm part 3


Hoosier

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I woke up in the middle of the night and actually thought of this storm...several days out...what a sick hobby.

The amazing thing is the potential widespread nature of this event. Something most of the CONUS will share in some form or fashion.

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I beleive the 12z euro was showing KBUF getting 1.17" QPF

Wasn't questioning the amounts, just the ratios.

prolly close to that right? 2m temps are in the teens.:drunk:

lol, no. Probably 12-15:1 by my estimation. Sfc temps have a negligible effect on ratios and 30:1 is seldom seen outside of LES. Still be a great storm for BUF verbatim, especially the parts of the city that missed out on the Dec blizzard.

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Where do you get that from?

30:1 30 parts, lips, bungholes and preservatives to one part beef weenier.

Can't wait for the 0z runs.. this is worse than Christmas eve as a kid.. Fish fry time and I hope the beer taste good.. If nothing else we have them trained to make a tasty old fashion.

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Here's the GFS forecast sounding for LAF. Very cold at the surface and a noticeable warm bulge aloft although it's not enough to get above 0C. If you don't like ice, the concerning thing in a setup like this is that if the model wind fields are close to reality, it's likely that the warming aloft will be more robust than progged but it might not translate to the surface.

post-14-0-84779300-1296256637.gif

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Wasn't questioning the amounts, just the ratios.

lol, no. Probably 12-15:1 by my estimation. Sfc temps have a negligible effect on ratios and 30:1 is seldom seen outside of LES. Still be a great storm for BUF verbatim, especially the parts of the city that missed out on the Dec blizzard.

about a foot for kbuf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kbuf :thumbsup:

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Here's the GFS forecast sounding for LAF. Very cold at the surface and a noticeable warm bulge aloft although it's not enough to get above 0C. If you don't like ice, the concerning thing in a setup like this is that if the model wind fields are close to reality, it's likely that the warming aloft will be more robust than progged but it might not translate to the surface.

post-14-0-84779300-1296256637.gif

I think your safe where you sit now but any more of a north trend and you would have to worry about it. It always seems like the warm push from around 700mb-850mb is underdone but we'll see.

quite the turning in the wind profile! too bad its not spring!

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Still south of the OP but better than the 12z run. A couple of the 18z individual members actually clock us pretty good, while at 12z they were all whiffs.

you are certainly having a steller season compared to us canuck. When's the last time you can remember Toronto getting more snow than Ottawa in a winter?

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Still south of the OP but better than the 12z run. A couple of the 18z individual members actually clock us pretty good, while at 12z they were all whiffs.

Keep in mind the GFS LOVES TO TRANSFER ENERGY way to early to east coast cyclogenesis more often than not. With a delayed transfer you may get more.

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