ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Quad Cities LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY... ...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TUE-WED MAIN FCST CHALLENGE... MON-MON NGT... LIGHT SNOW CHCS INCREASING DURING THIS PERIOD INITIALLY NORTH BUT GRADUALLY SWD MON NGT IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTING AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIPPLING EASTWARD ALONG SAGGING MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS A RESULT... HAVE BUMPED UP POPS BY 10-20% WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING TO FURTHER RAISE MORE IF TRENDS CONTINUE. TUE-WED... OVERALL SEEING BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL OCCUR IN THIS TIMEFRAME... WITH PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGGING AND PHASING WITH GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE. THUS... CONFIDENCE INCREASING ON DEVELOPING WINTER STORM... WITH MAIN CHALLENGES SHIFTING TO MAGNITUDE AND TRACK. OVERALL TREND USING DPROG/DT OF MODELS... ESPECIALLY WITH GFS...ECMWF AND GEM OVER THE PAST 24 HRS SHOWS PRONOUNCED NORTHWARD TREND TO SFC LOW POSITION BY TUE NGT. GFS WHICH HAD BEEN OVER CENTRAL MS IS NOW INTO WESTERN TN... WHILE ECMWF WHICH HAD THE SFC LOW IN GULF COAST SOUTH OF LA WITH YSTDYS 12Z RUN NOW SHOWING IT NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER. THIS SHIFT NWD LARGELY DUE TO TREND OF BACKING SFC HIGH WWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS... CRITICAL IN THAT MAIN THRUST OF ARCTIC AIR FROM PLAINS ALONG FRONT RANGE OF ROCKIES RESULTS IN SHIFTING ORIENTATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MORE SW TO NE FASHION AND THUS BRINGS SFC LOW NWD. PER ORIENTATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE BEING INDICATED BETWEEN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES JET AND LEFT EXIT OF SOUTHERN PLAINS JET... THE GENERAL TRACK SUGGESTED IS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OHIO VALLEY. STILL EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CHANGES FROM MODELS WITH MAIN ENERGY STILL WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC NEAR 140W AND 40N. SO STAY TUNED. FOR NOW THOUGH GIVEN THE NWD SHIFT HAVE CONTINUED TO BUMP UP POPS IN THIS TIMEFRAME... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE 1/3-1/2. GRAPHICAL WX STORY AND HWO COVER POSSIBLE STORM AND UNCERTAINTIES SO NO CHANGES THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Really sad move there. Lot sounds interested. Yeah, they do... the fact that they said "A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY AND WILL BE CLOSE TO IF NOT SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA." is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah, but 2 or 3 years ago, even for a whopper it wouldn't have been this active. It's a shame we can't confirm it, but IIRC we kept discussion for the Dec 15-16, 2007 storm confined to two threads. i joined the board in january 08, so that makes sense i wish i had been on this board for that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 So they go closer to the Euro but have all snow in the pinpoint forecast? yea, my favorite part was how they wonder if they'll have to bump up chances of precip tues and wed.... ya think???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 yea, my favorite part was how they wonder if they'll have to bump up chances of precip tues and wed.... ya think???? What's your thoughts buckeye? Rain, snow or Ice? I'm sticking to my guns. Low track across KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 def north and slower. 6z at same time frame was over sc KY Nice bend in the 540 line for us: f120.gif Looks like surface temps never go above freezing. Probably an ice to heavy snow setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 So they go closer to the Euro but have all snow in the pinpoint forecast? Yeah, um they have 30 and snow up here. I think the Euro had like 40-45 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What's your thoughts buckeye? Rain, snow or Ice? I'm sticking to my guns. Low track across KY. i kinda agree. I think in the end the cold push is gonna bully and a weaker phase and splitting of the energy will mean we won't see a big enough monster to fight it. The trend this season on the euro, ggem, and ukie is to to verify colder and south and east. this doesn't mean i think it's LIKELY...i just think it's the most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Reading threw the FDs many are siding with something closer to the GFS/GEM and the ensembles..not that it really matters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Any thoughts on the 18z gfs so far? I think in the end we get a sub 995 low in the IN/OH border. IL/MI/IN gets hammered hard. BTW, that's not my prediction for the 18z GFS, that's for the storm in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z NAM would go crazy after 84hrs it looks like. can't wait to see what it does the next few runs as it gets into its range. good to see the area offices hitting the potential harder in the afternoon afd's also good to see our buddy respiratory guy back 12z Euro for here would be a monster storm easily the most excited I have been about a system this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I would kill to get 3 8" s-storms in a week. Twice a week is enough sexy time in the winter. There is a reason they make so many sex toys for woman. Alek... Did you like the looks of the NAM for your area... I couldn't tell. Its the 84 hr 18z nam, not much to say. The baroclinic zone and gulf flow was hot though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 not bad for a storm still 100hrs+ out 82 User(s) are reading this topic 59 members, 17 guests, 6 anonymous users Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 How would a low on the IN/OH border be good for my area? I wouldn't get more then a inch or two if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Any thoughts on the 18z gfs so far? I think in the end we get a sub 995 low in the IN/OH border. IL/MI/IN gets hammered hard. BTW, that's not my prediction for the 18z GFS, that's for the storm in the end. Will be more or les like 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Its the 84 hr 18z nam, not much to say. The baroclinic zone and gulf flow was hot though That's what I thought but then I thought I read a post that said not the best setup for us. I'm on the phone and with all the models getting juggled around I was just confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 How would a low on the IN/OH border be good for my area? I wouldn't get more then a inch or two if that happened. Dude, calm down I was only messing with ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS HR 87: Sub 1004 low in S. Texas 12z HR 93: Sub 1012 low in S. Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z Euro drops .38" liquid at ORD during a 6hr period and .33" during the next 6hr....not a bad total for 12hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 That's what I thought but then I thought I read a post that said not the best setup for us. I'm on the phone and with all the models getting juggled around I was just confused. X sounds like it would get funny at 500 post 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 How would a low on the IN/OH border be good for my area? I wouldn't get more then a inch or two if that happened. It's probably better than one that straddles the Ohio River. Also, since you didn't specify where on the border, it could quite easily track through Central Illinois and Indiana, which should be favorable for Southern Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hey Buckeye, how did CBUS do with the late Jan 2009 storm? I remember getting hammered with ice in Cincinnati and this setup looks similar. Similar time of the year too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS looks stronger so far. Precip shield is a bit farther NW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 96 hour 18z GFS. Haven't compared it with the 12z but just from memory it looks a bit more amped up this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS looks stronger so far. Precip shield is a bit farther NW as well. The northern stream wave is a tad farther east too. Should be an interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z GFS flat our destroys STL with Snow and Sleet. probably a half foot of sleet in spots if that is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z GFS flat our destroys STL with Snow and Sleet. probably a half foot of sleet in spots if that is possible. It is. I think I heard reports from NJ of up to 8" of sleet during VD 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 As Alek mentioned, quite the 850mb jet on the NAM at 84hr really nice trajectories from the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not gonna do it. Close, but it ends up like 12z pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not gonna do it. Close, but it ends up like 12z pretty much. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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