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January 31-February 2 Major Winter Storm part 3


Hoosier

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:wacko:its north, more south, north compared to 00z south compared to op, south, north lol

lol, well everything but the EURO OP gives me a storm of the decade.

So if I seem high strung then I apologize but damn, 1-1.5 liquid all sleet or snow? hell don't even say ice or we are in deep trouble.

last time 1.00 liquid fell as ice, power was out for 1-2 weeks for half the metro

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Still waiting on ILN AFD to update but the updated pinpoint forecast now has me at 50% chance of snow tuesday night and wednesday.

I wish ILN would actually analyze the options and lay them out vs. picking their model du jour and making it the forecast. Wasn't it 2 or 3 days ago they were riding the euro and basically called rain?

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From Des Moines

WHAT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP STARTS LATE

SUNDAY EVENING CUMULATING WITH PASSAGE OF SIGNIFICANT STORM

SOMEWHERE THROUGH OH VALLEY LATE TUESDAY. GFS/GEFS CONTINUITY HAS

BEEN BEST IN RECENT RUNS...EITHER STEADY OR WITH ONLY SLIGHT NRN

TINT AND WILL BE FAVORED TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN SOME SNOW FOR

IA...4-6 INCHES OVER SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT

ACCUMULATIONS EITHER RIGHT ALONG IA/MO BORDER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH

AND EAST. ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE HAD LESS

CONTINUITY DANCING AROUND WITH THEIR TRACKS...BUT ARE NOW MORE

BULLISH FOR IA BEING FARTHER NORTH RESULTING IN A BLIZZARD WITH OVER

A FOOT OF SNOW. ALTHOUGH NOT FAVORED RIGHT SNOW...THIS POTENTIAL

WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO BE MONITORED. REGARDLESS OF FAVORED

SOLUTION...SNOW BECOMING MORE PROBABLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO RATCHET

UP POPS WHICH ARE NOW EITHER HIGH CHANCES OR LIKELIES WITH MORE

EMPHASIS IN PRODUCTS.

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you remind me of someone from eastern.

that post or thoughts were taken from this:

It looks an aweful lot like an ice storm to rival the November 2006 ice storm to be specific....and a snow to equal it as well...wherever the heavy snow band ends up. There are lot of interesting trends right now... but they are all model fiction. The most important thing to latch on to right now is the time is fast approaching that we will need to ramp up of wording in the long range of a potentially major....perhaps for some crippling...winter weather event that has the potential to shutdown large areas for several days. I'm definitely NOT going to go all snow right now. I wouldn't be suprised with the strength of the ridge to the north if the cold air does push a little further south and ends up being deeper than projected. That is an interesting feature...watching the 850mb frz line migrate slowly south despite the southwest flow. This is a sign of very intense frontogenesis and dynamic cooling. LOTS going on... excellent jet coupling for a looong time in the GFS too. This system will likely be the benchmark storm for the midwest the way it stands right now.

That post is from Pro met Chris Higgins in STL..

sounds similiar.

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lol, well everything but the EURO OP gives me a storm of the decade.

So if I seem high strung then I apologize but damn, 1-1.5 liquid all sleet or snow? hell don't even say ice or we are in deep trouble.

last time 1.00 liquid fell as ice, power was out for 1-2 weeks for half the metro

i wasn't picking on you...there were like 4 posts north and south. Always riding the rail here in cmh....this is no diff so im a bit strung out as well

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KLOT

IN A BRIEF RECAP...THE ECMWF FROM 48 HRS AGO WAS THE LONE MODEL

FORECASTING HEAVY SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES NEXT

WEEK AND 24 HRS AGO IT WAS THE GEM/CANADIAN AS THE LONE MODEL WITH

A SIMILAR TRACK/SOLUTION. TODAY ALL THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE

HAS A LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT

INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST NORTH. WHILE ITS NICE

TO SEE SOME CONSENSUS...DETAILS ARE DAYS AWAY THOUGH GIVEN THE

CURRENT SOLUTIONS...A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY AND WILL BE

CLOSE TO IF NOT SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST

WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME AND WHILE NOT TOO

STRONG...BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DIFFICULTIES.

COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MODIFIED A BIT AND HAVE

TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK

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I wish ILN would actually analyze the options and lay them out vs. picking their model du jour and making it the forecast. Wasn't it 2 or 3 days ago they were riding the euro and basically called rain?

Yes. I think it was rain a couple days ago and yesterday had no precip in the forecast and now snow. They can't make up their minds.

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I hope no man here is getting more 8 inch plus storms then sex..that would be horrible.

I would kill to get 3 8" s-storms in a week. Twice a week is enough sexy time in the winter. There is a reason they make so many sex toys for woman.

Alek... Did you like the looks of the NAM for your area... I couldn't tell.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

430 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT TODAY THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST

FEW DAYS. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ARE SIGNIFICANTLY

DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS KEEP MONDAY

THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY DRY WHEREAS BEFORE THERE WAS A

STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST RUNS

SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DECIDED NOT TO GO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT

CHANCE OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME DUE TO RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES

HOWEVER IF THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES IN UPCOMING RUNS THEN PRECIP

CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE

EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW HOWEVER WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND HAVE

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA.

PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE

WILL WORK INTO THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AFTER THE

LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FA.

So they go closer to the Euro but have all snow in the pinpoint forecast? :lmao:

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