buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Unless you are saying the 12z Euro ENS is north of the 00z EURO ENS then that is different...I had no idea the 00z euro ENS was so far south of the OP :wacko:its north, more south, north compared to 00z south compared to op, south, north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Unless you are saying the 12z Euro ENS is north of the 00z EURO ENS then that is different...I had no idea the 00z euro ENS was so far south of the OP It's south but it's not like it's tracking it through Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 My forecast zone is snow from Sunday night to Thursday with snow likely Wednesday. Geeze combined this with all the elements WAA Derformation band Lake effect/enhancement Atlantic moisture gulf moisture pacific moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ya think i should have asked what Skilling's thoughts were when they did lunch today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 :wacko:its north, more south, north compared to 00z south compared to op, south, north lol lol, well everything but the EURO OP gives me a storm of the decade. So if I seem high strung then I apologize but damn, 1-1.5 liquid all sleet or snow? hell don't even say ice or we are in deep trouble. last time 1.00 liquid fell as ice, power was out for 1-2 weeks for half the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Still waiting on ILN AFD to update but the updated pinpoint forecast now has me at 50% chance of snow tuesday night and wednesday. I wish ILN would actually analyze the options and lay them out vs. picking their model du jour and making it the forecast. Wasn't it 2 or 3 days ago they were riding the euro and basically called rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18Z dgex at 114 s IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 From Des Moines WHAT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP STARTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING CUMULATING WITH PASSAGE OF SIGNIFICANT STORM SOMEWHERE THROUGH OH VALLEY LATE TUESDAY. GFS/GEFS CONTINUITY HAS BEEN BEST IN RECENT RUNS...EITHER STEADY OR WITH ONLY SLIGHT NRN TINT AND WILL BE FAVORED TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN SOME SNOW FOR IA...4-6 INCHES OVER SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EITHER RIGHT ALONG IA/MO BORDER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE HAD LESS CONTINUITY DANCING AROUND WITH THEIR TRACKS...BUT ARE NOW MORE BULLISH FOR IA BEING FARTHER NORTH RESULTING IN A BLIZZARD WITH OVER A FOOT OF SNOW. ALTHOUGH NOT FAVORED RIGHT SNOW...THIS POTENTIAL WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO BE MONITORED. REGARDLESS OF FAVORED SOLUTION...SNOW BECOMING MORE PROBABLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO RATCHET UP POPS WHICH ARE NOW EITHER HIGH CHANCES OR LIKELIES WITH MORE EMPHASIS IN PRODUCTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 you remind me of someone from eastern. that post or thoughts were taken from this: It looks an aweful lot like an ice storm to rival the November 2006 ice storm to be specific....and a snow to equal it as well...wherever the heavy snow band ends up. There are lot of interesting trends right now... but they are all model fiction. The most important thing to latch on to right now is the time is fast approaching that we will need to ramp up of wording in the long range of a potentially major....perhaps for some crippling...winter weather event that has the potential to shutdown large areas for several days. I'm definitely NOT going to go all snow right now. I wouldn't be suprised with the strength of the ridge to the north if the cold air does push a little further south and ends up being deeper than projected. That is an interesting feature...watching the 850mb frz line migrate slowly south despite the southwest flow. This is a sign of very intense frontogenesis and dynamic cooling. LOTS going on... excellent jet coupling for a looong time in the GFS too. This system will likely be the benchmark storm for the midwest the way it stands right now. That post is from Pro met Chris Higgins in STL.. sounds similiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 lol, well everything but the EURO OP gives me a storm of the decade. So if I seem high strung then I apologize but damn, 1-1.5 liquid all sleet or snow? hell don't even say ice or we are in deep trouble. last time 1.00 liquid fell as ice, power was out for 1-2 weeks for half the metro i wasn't picking on you...there were like 4 posts north and south. Always riding the rail here in cmh....this is no diff so im a bit strung out as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is better than sex right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's south but it's not like it's tracking it through Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 that post or thoughts were taken from this: That post is from Pro met Chris Higgins in STL.. sounds similiar. plagiarism FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 KLOT IN A BRIEF RECAP...THE ECMWF FROM 48 HRS AGO WAS THE LONE MODEL FORECASTING HEAVY SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES NEXT WEEK AND 24 HRS AGO IT WAS THE GEM/CANADIAN AS THE LONE MODEL WITH A SIMILAR TRACK/SOLUTION. TODAY ALL THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS A LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST NORTH. WHILE ITS NICE TO SEE SOME CONSENSUS...DETAILS ARE DAYS AWAY THOUGH GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY AND WILL BE CLOSE TO IF NOT SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME AND WHILE NOT TOO STRONG...BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DIFFICULTIES. COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MODIFIED A BIT AND HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18Z dgex at 114 s IL def north and slower. 6z at same time frame was over sc KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i should have asked what Skilling's thoughts were when they did lunch today. Never did get any humming bird feeders out this past spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I wish ILN would actually analyze the options and lay them out vs. picking their model du jour and making it the forecast. Wasn't it 2 or 3 days ago they were riding the euro and basically called rain? Yes. I think it was rain a couple days ago and yesterday had no precip in the forecast and now snow. They can't make up their minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 def north and slower. 6z at same time frame was over sc KY fwiw 120 over sw IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 So a bit farther NW then 12z eh? Anyone know where the NOGAPS ended up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z DGEX offers a crippling ice storm here..if that is ice and not sleet we would be totally screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 fwiw 120 over sw IN LINK PLEASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is better than sex right now. That depends on what occurs more frequently: A potential 8"+ snow storm or you getting laid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Quad Cities update should be entertaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 That depends on what occurs more frequently: A potential 8"+ snow storm or you getting laid. I hope no man here is getting more 8 inch plus storms then sex..that would be horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 plagiarism FTL Really sad move there. Lot sounds interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Quad Cities update should be entertaining Yeah they are always interesting. Sometimes they are to extreme though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 LINK PLEASE. i'm running gempak to display images...no link. crappy image at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I hope no man here is getting more 8 inch plus storms then sex..that would be horrible. I would kill to get 3 8" s-storms in a week. Twice a week is enough sexy time in the winter. There is a reason they make so many sex toys for woman. Alek... Did you like the looks of the NAM for your area... I couldn't tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i'm running gempak to display images...no link. crappy image at 120 weird looks like a split low...part of it over central ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 430 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT TODAY THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS KEEP MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY DRY WHEREAS BEFORE THERE WAS A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST RUNS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DECIDED NOT TO GO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME DUE TO RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES HOWEVER IF THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES IN UPCOMING RUNS THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW HOWEVER WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND HAVE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA. PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AFTER THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FA. So they go closer to the Euro but have all snow in the pinpoint forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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