baroclinic_instability Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I noticed while looping the NAM at H5 that the last frame has the northern low moving westward. Leads me to believe that it would continue that retrogression beyond 84 similar to the other models. It will. The cold air at 700 has trajectories heading straight SW--as a result of low level CAA the heights would fall on the back-end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 euro mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I noticed while looping the NAM at H5 that the last frame has the northern low moving westward. Leads me to believe that it would continue that retrogression beyond 84 similar to the other models. I smell a western lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Having lived here all my life, I'm sniffing out a classic Oklahoma ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I smell a western lakes cutter. As much as I don't want to somehow end up with a mix/rain event, that's the trend I need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 euro mean Good the Euro Ensemble are well South of the OP like all of the other models...that is good news for my area I am thinking a majoe ice storm is coming..with a Columbia MO to LAF major snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It can't however. That is the part of the problem the models are having. You're saying the models can't show it even though it's possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I smell a western lakes cutter. Highly doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I smell a western lakes cutter. Just the opposite. The less energy that ejects out in this scenario, the better the chance for a more southerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just the opposite. The less energy that ejects out in this scenario, the better the chance for a more southerly track. Ah I c. You know what I was saying then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 pretty good discussion from IWX POTENTIAL STRONG WINTER STORM FOR THE MIDWEST AND OUR AREA NEXT WEEK REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS WE DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS AND DIFFERENCES CONTINUE FROM RUN TO RUN WITH EVOLUTION...TRACK AND DETAILS. FEW CHANGES BEING PLANNED TO LONG TERM GRIDS AS OVERALL SITUATION HANDLED WELL AT THIS TIME RANGE. A BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS GENERALLY USED. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEAK 925-850MB FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH VERY MARGINAL DELTA T VALUES. WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR CONSISTENCY BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THIS. PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY SEEN NICELY IN WATER VAPOR TODAY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. PHASING OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS THE PROBLEM FOR MODELS IN THEIR HANDLING OF EVENTUAL WINTER STORM FOR THE MIDWEST. IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC HIGH...WITH LATEST SURFACE PRESSURES OF 1050MB INDICATED IN MODELS...WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS ON MONDAY BEHIND NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AHEAD OF PHASING SHORT WAVES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT WITH OUR AREA BEING ON EASTERN FRINGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS BUT STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP A DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE THAT MAY INHIBIT PCPN FROM REACHING SURFACE EARLY ON BUT WILL ALSO ACT TO LOCK IN COLD AIR. DEGREE OF PHASING TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS REMAINS CHALLENGING AND VARIABLE AMONG THE MODELS. 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST WEST AND NORTH AS IT IS PHASING ENERGY INTO A BROAD AND DEEP WESTERN TROUGH AND EJECTS SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPS SURFACE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WITH STRONG NEGATIVE TILT ADVERTISED IN MODELS FOR MID LEVELS HAVE TO RESPECT THE ECMWF IDEA AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS MANY TIMES AND MODELS ALREADY ADJUSTED FROM YESTERDAYS GULF COAST SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF RUN HAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT REMAINS LEFT OF GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES. CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN REMAINS LOW WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL IN POORLY SAMPLED REGIONS AND LOOKING STRONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH LIES CLOSER TO GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE DIFFERENCE FOR OUR AREA WILL LIE IN PCPN TYPE FOR THIS EVENT AS ECMWF THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT POSSIBLE AS STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LOCK IN ARCTIC COLD WEDGE NEAR SURFACE WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. GEFS SOLUTIONS WILL YIELD A HEAVY SNOW EVENT FOR THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. STILL EXPECT FURTHER MODEL CHANGES GIVEN THE COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE PACIFIC PATTERN RIGHT NOW. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...MODEL AGREEMENT ON SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA CONTINUES SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY AND LEFT PREDOMINANT TYPE AS SNOW GIVEN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVORING THIS RIGHT NOW. A LOT OF CHANGES LIKELY WITH EVOLUTION OVER NEXT FEW DAYS SO CONTINUED MONITORING OF FORECASTS IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 You're saying the models can't show it even though it's possible? I can't see how it can be a western lakes cutter... the nam looks to me like it will pop a SLP in central Texas maybe even south Central Tx and end up Shooting it NNE until it reaches S. IL or so and then moves more east..if it even gets that north... if the energy retrogrades to the backside of the trough..the 1st vort will come out and eventually weaken as it heads into the PV and wont go that far NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It will. The cold air at 700 has trajectories heading straight SW--as a result of low level CAA the heights would fall on the back-end. Not the ideal scenario for this area, still looks like a decent storm would be squeezed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just the opposite. The less energy that ejects out in this scenario, the better the chance for a more southerly track. i was wondering how he came to that conclusion based on your comment....thought maybe he was responding to the wrong poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Good the Euro Ensemble are well South of the OP like all of the other models...that is good news for my area I am thinking a majoe ice storm is coming..with a Columbia MO to LAF major snow event Well south is a slight exaggeration, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Good the Euro Ensemble are well South of the OP like all of the other models...that is good news for my area I am thinking a majoe ice storm is coming..with a Columbia MO to LAF major snow event From another board They are slightly further nw vs the 00z run but not as far north as the 12z OP run. The QPF has gone up and now the .75+ line makes it to the 3rd row of counties in S.MI back to the IL/WI line and just north of the QC and along/south of i80 back to NE. The 1+ QPF line is from near LAF on east/ene ( Covers IND ) to Sandusky on south to the river. From me Its going to be a long 3-5 days if everyone is posting about IMBY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not the ideal scenario for this area, still looks like a decent storm would be squeezed out. I think you would make out just fine. your ratios will be much better then 10-1 so .5 to .75 qpf up there would be 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 JMA looks just like the GFS and absoloutly smokes the state of Mo with well over 1.50 qpf, reminds me of the ice storm of 2006 down there. STL the way it stand may just get paralyzed either by ice or snow or both. Either way this has the making of a benchmark storm imo. Watching that 850 mb frz line creep south despite a southwesterly flow sure is a tell tell sign of very deep and intense frontogenesis and cooling...remarkable. Looking at the GFS you can see good jet coupling as well and for an extended period of time. Yeah this one is gonna be a lot of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i was wondering how he came to that conclusion based on your comment....thought maybe he was responding to the wrong poster Whats your bet on the DGEX aka NAM beyond 84hr? Think it goes south and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 good news that the Euro ensemble mean creeped north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i was wondering how he came to that conclusion based on your comment....thought maybe he was responding to the wrong poster I was thinking if that northern stream energy retrogrades back westeward it would amplify the system and bring it furthur NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well south is a slight exaggeration, IMO. That sucks..from the look of the posted map here, it looks like the SLP would track threw Central Arkanas into KY.. not into Southern MO and IL so I assumed it was well south of the 12z OP euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Whats your bet on the DGEX aka NAM beyond 84hr? Think it goes south and east? i would have thought maybe more north.....but I'll gladly take baro's analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Obviously the ens. means are most likley gonna be south of the op models. I don't see it being a big deal. I highly doubt we get a big storm up here, but this is looking good for the IND/IL areas. I'll take my 2-3 inches of snow today and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 I was thinking if that northern stream energy retrogrades back westeward it would amplify the system and bring it furthur NW. not if it goes that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 JMA looks just like the GFS and absoloutly smokes the state of Mo with well over 1.50 qpf, reminds me of the ice storm of 2006 down there. STL the way it stand may just get paralyzed either by ice or snow or both. Either way this has the making of a benchmark storm imo. Watching that 850 mb frz line creep south despite a southwesterly flow sure is a tell tell sign of very deep and intense frontogenesis and cooling...remarkable. Looking at the GFS you can see good jet coupling as well and for an extended period of time. Yeah this one is gonna be a lot of fun. you remind me of someone from eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 LMK AFD HERE IS HOW THE CURRENT FORECAST STANDS...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...NAEFS...AND TO SOME DEGREE THE ECMWF. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE. WARM/MOIST ELEVATED AIR WILL SPREAD OVER A COLDER SURFACE AIRMASS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH FREEZING/SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH...EXPECT RAIN TO FREEZE ON CONTACT OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS /A FUNCTION OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC WIND AT LOW LEVELS/ I DO NOT ANTICIPATE OUR EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY. THIS WOULD CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...AND IT APPEARS OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES COULD SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT ALSO THE DREADED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF HERE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THIS FORECAST CAN...AND PROBABLY WILL...CHANGE AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION. STAY TUNED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 you remind me of someone from eastern. ya think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Unless you are saying the 12z Euro ENS is north of the 00z EURO ENS then that is different...I had no idea the 00z euro ENS was so far south of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 344 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK...BUT A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY THAN YESTERDAY IS NOTED. HOWEVER...SPREAD IS ENOUGH TO STILL PROVIDE MAJOR UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOMEONE IN THE MIDWEST APPEARS LIKELY TO SEE A MAJOR WINTER STORM NEXT WEEK. QUESTION IS WHERE. A BLEND OF MODELS ARE USED FOR LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE...AND DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM HPC NUMBERS. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON TEMPS. WAS NOT QUITE READY TO BUY MUCH COLDER GFS OVER WARMER EURO...WHICH ON THE WHOLE PERFORMS BETTER IN THE LONGER RANGES. AS SUCH...TEMPERED EXTENDED TEMPS WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEANS. Still waiting on ILN AFD to update but the updated pinpoint forecast now has me at 50% chance of snow tuesday night and wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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