Baum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't think i've ever felt better about an event 84hrs out, not just because we're sitting good, but because the potential prize looks EPIC. I'm saving this post for when you make your 2-4 inch call on Monday evening after 00Z NAM comes out and your first nowcast states totals will be cut due to gulf inflow robbing moisture transport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 massive difference in the thermal profiles with the GFS and NAM at 60 hours. GFS has LAF almost -4C while the NAM is +4 Going be to an interesting next 48 hours to say the least on models runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 what now....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ratios are complicated and yeah it's probably too early. I'll say that someone who is in the heart of the defo/trowal and sees some convective snows will see ratios well in excess of 15:1 for a period during the heart of the storm. Those high winds will shatter dendrites, so I'm not sure I'd go that high. Would probably be a lot of drifting anyways, makes it very tough to measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ratios are complicated and yeah it's probably too early. I'll say that someone who is in the heart of the defo/trowal and sees some convective snows will see ratios well in excess of 15:1 for a period during the heart of the storm. Good question. The heaviest snows will probably lay out just northwest of where the transition zone pivots. 12-15:1 sounds pretty reasonable, but since there's going to be some wind with this I think the ratios will be tempered a little lower than you'd expect. Should make for a fairly dense snowpack though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 gfs gives me 2 feet of snow.. 2 freaking feet...WOW Yeah, and this is making me think about getting milk and bread today just in case it pans out. Seriously, I don't even have a PLAN for what I would do in 24" of snow. Break out the snowmobiles and snowshoes. Plan on staying home a full week at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm saving this post for when you make your 2-4 inch call on Monday evening after 00Z NAM comes out and your first nowcast states totals will be cut due to gulf inflow robbing moisture transport pessimistic boy at it again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 gfs gives me 2 feet of snow.. 2 freaking feet...WOW As a fellow native St. Louisan, I'm here to talk you down. 1" of ice/sleet mix and 6-8" snow. That's a rough guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ratios are complicated and yeah it's probably too early. I'll say that someone who is in the heart of the defo/trowal and sees some convective snows will see ratios well in excess of 15:1 for a period during the heart of the storm. The other side of the equation is that you have to make sure the models aren't overdoing the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hey Hoosier, probably time to start Part IV, before the Euro comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Those high winds will shatter dendrites, so I'm not sure I'd go that high. Would probably be a lot of drifting anyways, makes it very tough to measure. we have had ratios well over 20:1 in wind driven lake enhanced defo bands before, so i don't think it's hard to fathom. Again this is putting the cart before the horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Anyone been through an ice storm with an inch or more accumulation. Most I have seen is 1/2". I can't imagine what it would look like with that much ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 pessimistic boy at it again.. that's not my call it's making lite of AKing's optimism at this point...I think we looked prime. I felt that way when only the EURO latched onto this 4 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hey Hoosier, probably time to start Part IV, before the Euro comes out. Looks like I've been beaten to the punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 massive difference in the thermal profiles with the GFS and NAM at 60 hours. GFS has LAF almost -4C while the NAM is +4 It's the NAM/Euro v. the GFS on the 850 T's. I cannot decided which camp to believe. (My heart says GFS but my brain says NAM/Euro.) QPF is fine with either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hey Hoosier, probably time to start Part IV, before the Euro comes out. prob a good call, should be nearing 60 pages by that time. still have the GEM shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Anyone been through an ice storm with an inch or more accumulation. Most I have seen is 1/2". I can't imagine what it would look like with that much ice! It's terrible. Trim your trees now and make sure there are no limbs near power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You sound more confident than I am. I'm not saying an epic blizzard is likely, i just like where we are now. I've laid out my concerns a few pages back. I'm saving this post for when you make your 2-4 inch call on Monday evening after 00Z NAM comes out and your first nowcast states totals will be cut due to gulf inflow robbing moisture transport I may very well storm cancel, but i can promise it won't be for lack of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's the NAM/Euro v. the GFS on the 850 T's. I cannot decided which camp to believe. (My heart says GFS but my brain says NAM/Euro.) QPF is fine with either... I'm leaning more toward the latter right now. I'm not convinced that the GFS is done trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/11581-january-31-february-2-major-winter-storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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