Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GFS continues the baby step climb north, looking like a more impressive storm each time as the baroclinic zone gets sharper each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well, still a fair bit east of the NAM/EURO but with the GFS closing off the H5 low it's increasing the impressiveness of the mid-level deformation zone. If that's your worse case scenario, you're sitting pretty. We've reached the point where every model is crushing this area. Over 1" on the GFS now, with the arrow pointing up. Obvious lake enchancement showing up by 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS continues to scream for a paralyzing ice storm here in CMH. Would be absolutely insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z GFS is further nw and stronger at 90/96hr. 998mb in western KY. love where we are sitting Alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I would say the chances of Chicago receiving 10 or more inches from this system is probably 90% right now. The worst case scienaro in the GFS, still gives them 1+ inch of QPF. While EURO/NAM would be over 1.75. Besides a late trend either way (NW or SE) Chicago is in the perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 and there you have it.... by hr 90, the GFS has indeed capitualted towards the Euro and NAM idea wrt to the trough and resultant amplification. the NAM remains on the deeper side, with the euro not far off. the GFS has closed the gap significantly, pending the 12z euro run today. as far as the explosive qpf, i dont doubt it in the slightest given the BZ. the NAM will do much better here, and has been outstading in that regards along the EC with rapid cyclogeneiss this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 We've reached the point where every model is crushing this area. Over 1" on the GFS now, with the arrow pointing up. Obvious lake enchancement showing up by 102. Definitely another step in the right direction for northern IL. The GFS crushes central Missouri through southern Michigan. It looks like the 850s stay below freezing at LAF too. Certainly looking more and more likely that we'll see a band of 10-15" setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well, still a fair bit east of the NAM/EURO but with the GFS closing off the H5 low it's increasing the impressiveness of the mid-level deformation zone. If that's your worse case scenario, you're sitting pretty. If things are on the right track, I wouldn't be surprised to see Environment Canada issue a Special Weather Statement as early as tomorrow morning, or tomorrow afternoon at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 We've reached the point where every model is crushing this area. Over 1" on the GFS now, with the arrow pointing up. Obvious lake enchancement showing up by 102. all the way up the north shore into WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sampling on tonights runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My area GFS MOS DATA Hamilton, Ohio TUE 00Z 01-FEB -2.5 0.5 1024 92 98 0.06 558 539 TUE 06Z 01-FEB -2.6 2.9 1022 95 93 0.12 558 541 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -3.8 2.4 1023 96 96 0.05 558 541 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -2.4 2.1 1022 93 92 0.04 558 541 WED 00Z 02-FEB -1.8 1.5 1017 99 99 0.51 556 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB -1.8 2.3 1007 99 99 0.67 552 546 WED 12Z 02-FEB -0.1 2.6 997 100 57 0.35 539 543 WED 18Z 02-FEB -7.2 -10.1 1007 95 84 0.06 534 529 = 1.80 ICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Definitely another step in the right direction for northern IL. The GFS crushes central Missouri through southern Michigan. It looks like the 850s stay below freezing at LAF too. Certainly looking more and more likely that we'll see a band of 10-15" setup. Easily. I wouldn't doubt a narrow zone of 18-24" or more but too early to pinpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sampling on tonights runs? I know we have recon scheduled sometime this weekend, so that should be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have been staying pretty calm so far, but dangit, this eastward trend must stop. Omaha has already been taken out of this storm on all the models and the same thing will happen to much of Iowa if the trend continues. I'm going to puke if the one big, wet storm of the entire winter misses to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 and there you have it.... by hr 90, the GFS has indeed capitualted towards the Euro and NAM idea wrt to the trough and resultant amplification.the NAM remains on the deeper side, with the euro not far off. the GFS has closed the gap significantly, pending the 12z euro run today. Agreed completley. I still see a slight NW trend in each run from here on out with the GFS. It's in catchup mode right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My area GFS MOS DATA Hamilton, Ohio TUE 00Z 01-FEB -2.5 0.5 1024 92 98 0.06 558 539 TUE 06Z 01-FEB -2.6 2.9 1022 95 93 0.12 558 541 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -3.8 2.4 1023 96 96 0.05 558 541 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -2.4 2.1 1022 93 92 0.04 558 541 WED 00Z 02-FEB -1.8 1.5 1017 99 99 0.51 556 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB -1.8 2.3 1007 99 99 0.67 552 546 WED 12Z 02-FEB -0.1 2.6 997 100 57 0.35 539 543 WED 18Z 02-FEB -7.2 -10.1 1007 95 84 0.06 534 529 = 1.80 ICE A very large area in the midwest would be absolutely paralyzed if the GFS is right. Epic icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If things are on the right track, I wouldn't be surprised to see Environment Canada issue a Special Weather Statement as early as tomorrow morning, or tomorrow afternoon at the latest. I remember for the Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005 storm they issued an SPS like 4 days in advance. Of course, that storm ended up being run of the mill. But if the models trend towards the more impressive WAA snows on Tuesday like the NAM is showing, I think they will. If the ratios are the same as the 6z GFS BUFKIT were indicating, that ~0.80" of precip on the 12z GFS is probably 12-14" of snow. And that's the "too far east" model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z GFS is further nw and stronger at 90/96hr. 998mb in western KY. love where we are sitting Alek I don't think i've ever felt better about an event 84hrs out, not just because we're sitting good, but because the potential prize looks EPIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Gfs shows barely anything. I think that will be more of a nowcast event and seeing where the bands setup. WOuld be a sweet appetizer. lol 9" of snow as an appetizer! I am starting to get excited, if all goes well we could be seeing some INSANE snow depths here! The 7" depth right now is quite heavy and i cannot see it settling anymore than at most to 6" before the WAA then storm arrives. Dont want to get too excited yet it is far out..but its hard not to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I would say the chances of Chicago receiving 10 or more inches from this system is probably 90% right now. The worst case scienaro in the GFS, still gives them 1+ inch of QPF. While EURO/NAM would be over 1.75. Besides a late trend either way (NW or SE) Chicago is in the perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't think i've ever felt better about an event 84hrs out, not just because we're sitting good, but because the potential prize looks EPIC. Is it time yet to start to talk about ratios on the NW of the low? 1.25 with ratios 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Agreed completley. I still see a slight NW trend in each run from here on out with the GFS. It's in catchup mode right now. It's been creeping north for like what seems a dozen runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS keeps wanting to blow this thing up just barely east of OKC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not going to be any fundamental shifts with the GFS, but since only 25-50 miles in the track could make a huge difference for some people's sensible wx, that's not saying much. 12z GFS shows the low passing from central/NE Arkansas through NW Tennessee and directly into extreme SW Kentucky. Literally CRUSHES St. Louis with 2 to 2.5 inches of liqued. If that's all snow, you're looking at 20-30 INCHES. I can't believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have been staying pretty calm so far, but dangit, this eastward trend must stop. Omaha has already been taken out of this storm on all the models and the same thing will happen to much of Iowa if the trend continues. I'm going to puke if the one big, wet storm of the entire winter misses to the southeast. I think eastern Iowa's in pretty good shape. Everything seems to be slowly trending towards the Euro, which lambastes most of Iowa. I prefer to be on the northwest side of these SW flow systems. We've been burned too many times by a last minute nudge to the left leaving us with pingers/dry slot. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 massive difference in the thermal profiles with the GFS and NAM at 60 hours. GFS has LAF almost -4C while the NAM is +4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Is it time yet to start to talk about ratios on the NW of the low? 1.25 with ratios 15? ratios are complicated and yeah it's probably too early. I'll say that someone who is in the heart of the defo/trowal and sees some convective snows will see ratios well in excess of 15:1 for a period during the heart of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 gfs gives me 2 feet of snow.. 2 freaking feet...WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Is it time yet to start to talk about ratios on the NW of the low? 1.25 with ratios 15? NAM and GFS are indicating 20:1 ratios but I've rarely seen those types of value verify outside of LES. I think 15:1 is a good call. Maybe a little higher. I'd expect in a setup like this the DGZ is going to be saturated and pounded by omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't think i've ever felt better about an event 84hrs out, not just because we're sitting good, but because the potential prize looks EPIC. You sound more confident than I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.