LizardMafia Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I just want the white powder. The NAM is all sleet this run. (I need the 12z Euro to blink and move south.) No doubt... But, I think the chances of that happening are about as likely as winning the lottery.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Everything looks on target with the GFS through 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 while its exciting watching these model runs, ill probably have to wait until the00z or 12z runs tomorrow, when the system is better sampled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z NAM is still pretty good for the southeast half of Iowa, but it has certainly been nudged a little to the east. Iowans need the surface low to track no farther southeast than southeast Missouri so any further eastward shift needs to halt. Quad Cities nws is definitely favoring a farther southeast solution like the GFS. The very early snow amount they are throwing out for Cedar Rapids is about 4 inches, which is close to what the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 As we get closer to the event do you think models will get stronger and more organized? GGEm and GFs seemed rather unorganized with the euro more together. this is certainly an interesting question. im sure one of the mets can chime in better, but with the intensity of the BZ, i think this storm appears to be a good candiate for one that the models may never quite catchup too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This may be the first time in awhile where GRR isn't onboard and excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yes please. I'd like to see which members are causing that spread to the NW on the mean sfc map. 72 & 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm gonna have to examine the soundings in more detail, but the 12z NAM is showing a surface temp still in the mid 20's at LAF at 84 hours. There appears to be a lot of cold air in the lowest 50-100 mb but the warm layer aloft might be getting warm enough to allow for complete melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The 12z NAM is absolutely insane at 84hr. I have to admit, I'm getting more and more excited with each 6hrs that pass. The WAA snows could easily be 4-5"+ for some areas and the defo band that the NAM is showing would continue on northeast and im guessing crush this area around here. maybe this would be like the 1/31/08-2/1/08 storm, 5" of WAA snow and then almost 7" under the defo band. but this one has the potential to be bigger than that one and the NAM is already coming in stronger at the sfc than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 72 & 87 Thank you. Further south than the NAM with the overrunning precip as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 850 thermals very similar on the 12z NAM and GFS by hr 48, NAM a bit warmer, but the layout is quite similar. Height field more amped on 12z GFS compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm gonna have to examine the soundings in more detail, but the 12z NAM is showing a surface temp still in the mid 20's at LAF at 84 hours. There appears to be a lot of cold air in the lowest 50-100 mb but the warm layer aloft might be getting warm enough to allow for complete melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm gonna have to examine the soundings in more detail, but the 12z NAM is showing a surface temp still in the mid 20's at LAF at 84 hours. There appears to be a lot of cold air in the lowest 50-100 mb but the warm layer aloft might be getting warm enough to allow for complete melting. I looked at that, it's really close and pretty hard to say.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not going to be any fundamental shifts with the GFS, but since only 25-50 miles in the track could make a huge difference for some people's sensible wx, that's not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not going to be any fundamental shifts with the GFS, but since only 25-50 miles in the track could make a huge difference for some people's sensible wx, that's not saying much. So far we've avoided any major shifts across the board model wise for a few runs now, helds lend some confidence that we're narrowing things down a bit. GFS should still deliver to a widespread area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I looked at that, it's really close and pretty hard to say.. I'm gonna have to get a refresher on forecasting sleet/zr, but either way, this run is an epic sleet or zr event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The baroclinic zone at 850mb on the NAM is just insane. Not only is it going to make for intense precipitation, but there will be very sharp cutoffs to precip type for a given area. An area could be sitting in an amazing sleet storm, while just 50 miles west they're getting buried by very heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 9.1" of WAA snows from BUFKIT on NAM for Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Chicago gets hit good on the GFS. STL gets just crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 84hr NAM precip type FWIW.. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=eta_sfc_ptyp&hours=hr84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sfc low at 84 on the 12z looks like it's a bit east of the same time at 6z, but the H5 s/w looks a lot sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I looked at that, it's really close and pretty hard to say.. BUFKIT shows more than enough warm air to melt hydrometeors (on the order of 100-120 J/kg of heat -- you only need 10-12). The question on the NAM would be sleet versus freezing rain, as LAF appears to ride the line between FZRA and PL for a while on Mon night and early Tues with the initial batch. The end of the run shows 180 J/kg of negative energy under the warm layer, indicating sleet for the start of the second part of the system (at 84 hr). Edit: I should also mention that there's some theta-e folding on the Bufkit profile here too Monday night, which indicates the possibility of some convective elements to the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GFS continues the baby step climb north, looking like a more impressive storm each time as the baroclinic zone gets sharper each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 alot of people do quite well in the WAA snow department as the intense defo band gets going. 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 9.1" of WAA snows from BUFKIT on NAM for Detroit Gfs shows barely anything. I think that will be more of a nowcast event and seeing where the bands setup. WOuld be a sweet appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 just 1 run, Wouldnt take much for this to shift nw or se a little bit. looking forward to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Closed H5 center at 96. That's new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm gonna have to get a refresher on forecasting sleet/zr, but either way, this run is an epic sleet or zr event. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/100/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The WAA snows with this sort of remind me of the December 8 2009 storm. We had several inches fall in a large swath ahead of the storm a day or so before the main show arrived. Of course then it ended up cutting pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well, still a fair bit east of the NAM/EURO but with the GFS closing off the H5 low it's increasing the impressiveness of the mid-level deformation zone. If that's your worse case scenario, you're sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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