snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Geebus, that's 6-10" of JUST WAA snow in Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan. And that's assuming A CONSERVATIVE snow to liquid ratio of 12:1. It's easily 8-12" wiht a more realisitic ratio. If the EURO holds with the insane QPF, I'll bite but the NAM has a habit of being overjuiced. I'd probably cut those numbers by 40%, at least for the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm amazed at the warning criteria WAA snows the NAM has over MI. I remain skeptical but that has .75+. How does it dump so much before the low even arrives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 statement alert sometimes the big ones get pegged from pretty far out The good news is there's been a great general consensus on the track with not alot of deviation the past few runs. And I'm not shy, yes I'm a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I remain skeptical but that has .75+. How does it dump so much before the low even arrives? a WAA flow with vectors into the yucatan jungle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The good news is there's been a great general consensus on the track with not alot of deviation the past few runs. And I'm not shy, yes I'm a weenie Can't wait to run the BUFKITs for the 12z NAM, sure to be some eye candy in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Columbia MO might make out with 2 feet on this run of the nam or more. stl would see a crippling heavy rain with temps in the upper 20s, then a ton of sleet, then accum snow, probably 4-6 inches, but it wont feel like much compared to the 1-2 feet NW of me. oh well...this is still NW guidance, so taking it verbatim would be wrong...a blend so far would lend the heaviest snows in the Columbia, mo to LAF section..could be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Anyone care to share where they get those colorful nam and gfs maps. (kuchera methord or not). Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 RGEM at 48. Looks good. Moderate snow with the overrunning into SW MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like a cold rain here near IND, but LAF looks like ice ice baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z NAM BUFKIT is pretty sweet with the ratios. About 20:1 here in Toronto using a couple of different techniques. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Which ones? The one I posted is from www.wright-weather.com - used with permission. The map on the first post in page 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptown Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like a cold rain here near IND, but LAF looks like ice ice baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM is just amazing. Wow. Pretty similar to the EURO in terms of where the low goes through hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm for those maps Stevo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 PSU isn't displaying the individual 9z SREF members. Maybe if prinsburg_wx is around she could be so kind to GEMPAK it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z NAM BUFKIT is pretty sweet with the ratios. About 20:1 here in Toronto using a couple of different techniques. Mega low aside, the WAA snows are looking more and more interesting and not as far away. With the WAA as progged, i smell an overperformer right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 09z SREF has the earth ending ice event, and major snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Mega low aside, the WAA snows are looking more and more interesting and not as far away. With the WAA as progged, i smell an overperformer right there. YOU using that word makes me believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks to me we either have the faster solution with the NAM/Euro which brings the warm air further north or the slower GFS which is all snow OKK/LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 PSU isn't displaying the individual 9z SREF members. Maybe if prinsburg_wx is around she could be so kind to GEMPAK it for us. 09z 72 & 87 500 sref...i can run the sfc maps too if you like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks to me we either have the faster solution with the NAM/Euro which brings the warm air further north or the slower GFS which is all snow OKK/LAF. Regardless of which solution though, the precip looks frozen from LAF to OKK.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm for those maps Stevo Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm predicting mass suicides when this thing shifts to MSP....should i order the body bags?? :lmao: No...but this does look good for CHI... Hope MKE gets 20 inches or more... Maybe 30 inches for Bow and 40 inches for Saukville nice of you to let them down gently...you know how this ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 09z 72 & 87 500 sref...i can run the sfc maps too if you like Yes please. I'd like to see which members are causing that spread to the NW on the mean sfc map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yes please. I'd like to see which members are causing that spread to the NW on the mean map. sure, be about 5 min or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The NWS watch/warning map is going to look like a Christmas tree in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the southern vort is now progged to go to threw Northern Mexico. this is going to help SLP form pretty far south and we get a Nam like track. that is nice and will allow a ton of cold air to get into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Question now becomes, what model do you guys think is right so far? What model makes the most sense. Euro/NAM would be the most farthest northwest, while GFS/UKIE/GEM takes the low through KY. while EURO takes it through S/C IND. E-E rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Skilling is up late tonight watching the models just like us lol.. "Big precip numbers out of the latest Canadian & European Center models on precip with next week's storm. Between Mon & Mon night, when a lead disturbance could lay down several inches of snow ahead of the main event later Tue into Wed, these models are kicking out water equiv precip values in excess of 1". These totals--if they verify--are stunning." love it! somebody should tell him about Americanwx......could you imagine him weenieng it out at 1am on the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Regardless of which solution though, the precip looks frozen from LAF to OKK.. I just want the white powder. The NAM is all sleet this run. (I need the 12z Euro to blink and move south.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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