The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's not going to rain in Chicago. Come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This morning's LOT AFD... not saying much at all. Pulled this from near the end... FURTHER UPSTREAM...COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 43.5N 140W EARLY THIS MORNING CROSSES THE CA COAST AND REACHES THE INTER-MOUNTAIN W BY 12Z MON. AS CERTAINLY WOULD BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FRAME SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE THOU BASICALLY HAVE SAME IDEA OF EJECTING A SHORT WAVE/UPR LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NE TO THE MID MS VALLEY 00Z-12Z WED. ROUGH CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AND PERTURBATIONS OF GFS ARE THAT SFC LOW TRACK WILL BE S OF THE OH RIVER WHERE BULK OF QPF PROGGED THO SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS OVER/NEAR THE LOCAL FA AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF PASSES OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY WED. WAA makes me nervous... I am watching this unfold with an admittedly jaded eye that I am keeping to myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I do, on this one. The synoptic pattern is exceedingly favorable, to an extent which I've not seen in some time. This is the perfect time for the NAO to go positive, and the PNA ridge looks to be in the ideal position. The PV is also in a great place to hold in a moderately strong elongated surface ridge to the north, thereby providing plenty of cold, dry northeasterly air, so no worries on that end. We're certainly going to be playing in the danger zone wrt model runs for the next 48 hours though, and feedback-type cyclogenesis is on the table, which is exciting and worrisome at the same time. I loathe the NAM past 48 hours, but it does seem to be in agreement with the Euro on deep and rapid lee-cyclogenesis across Texas. A few major concerns in general: 1) Sharp northern cut-off with precipitation is likely real. So, you've either not enough lift to overcome the dry air or you don't. A 50 mile zone from heavy snow to almost nothing is probably in the cards. 2) Feedback cyclogenesis can wreak havoc with the modeling. The fact that the Euro and NAM (higher res) are more wound up earlier than the lower res GEM and GFS says something in my book. 3) There's likely to be a tremendous amount of WAA aloft, and we all know how well the models do with that at this time frame. This needs to be watched very closely, as it will have serious consequences in terms of ice and mixing well north of the warm front. In this one regard it seems similar to the MSP blizzard, with the hi-res models nailing this aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's not going to rain in Chicago. Come on probably not plain old rain, but ZR is on the table and the threat is increasing IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 probably not plain old rain, but ZR is on the table and the threat is increasing IMO. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's not going to rain in Chicago. Come on don't be so sure. Maybe the pattern change is to a true La Nina pattern ala 3 winters ago. I'm sure Bowme can enlighten everyone. Would not be surprised to see the February pattern break off into this. With that said I still think Chicago looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Why? outlined at length above, the hi-res models that do a better job with explosive cyclogenisis along tight baroclinic zones are trending more agressive with the WAA ahead of the warm front to the east (not to mention that it is so often underdone). Not saying we're screwed, but it's a legit concern to watch. 12z NAM gets mixing to i80 or so before the NE winds send things back south. .50 from the NAM just in WAA snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm amazed at the warning criteria WAA snows the NAM has over MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 outlined at length above, the hi-res models that do a better job with explosive cyclogenisis along tight baroclinic zones are trending more agressive with the WAA ahead of the warm front to the east (not to mention that it is so often underdone). good new is a compromise between the further north solutions and the GFS makes us look good. Bad news is plenty of time for the warm air train to blast this thing further north with following runs. Recall the last La Nina winter where storms would start on EC and end up near or north of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM pretty aggressive with the WAA precip solid .25-.50 over much of IA,WI ,IL and .50-75 northern In and Southwesten and all of southern Mich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 probably not plain old rain, but ZR is on the table and the threat is increasing IMO. By the time that warm air makes it that far north on the frontal slope, you'd be looking at sleet (if it were to mix). I don't think it will, but I do think that the WAA with this system is going to be monstrous in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Geebus, that's 6-10" of JUST WAA snow in Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan. And that's assuming A CONSERVATIVE snow to liquid ratio of 12:1. It's easily 8-12" wiht a more realisitic ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM pretty aggressive withthe WAA precip solid .25-.50 over much of IA,WI ,IL and .50-75 northen In and Southwesten and all of southern Mich If anything has been consistent this winter, it's been the fact that WAA snows have not failed to come through. A decent WAA forced thump on Monday, ahead of the main system, is looking more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 By the time that warm air makes it that far north on the frontal slope, you'd be looking at sleet (if it were to mix). I don't think it will, but I do think that the WAA with this system is going to be monstrous in general. yeah, i want to make it clear i'm not whining just pointing out some concerns. Like i said, you have to gamble with some mixing to see the monster totals. Defo band from hell in the making. The baroclinic leaf on this thing will be sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Why? I'd be hoping for the GFS scenario in your camp, because otherwise, you're looking at a 2006-style ice-hell, and we all know how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM at 84 goes powder keg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 84 NAM looks like 996 entering se Missouri looks like most of missouri gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM at 84 goes powder keg the NAM implies the Euro's QPF totals were more than believeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'd be hoping for the GFS scenario in your camp, because otherwise, you're looking at a 2006-style ice-hell, and we all know how that turned out. 012z nam is ice to insane sleet to insane snow here. Not bad and the nam was warm to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Fortunately it looks like the 12z NAM is going to occlude early per 84hr So the WAA shouldn't make it too much further northward thank goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yeah, I'm loving the NAM this morning. More CAA down in my area. A shift SE. It's colder than the 00z NAM. A couple NWS offices mentioned thunder last night.. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Latest water vapor loop. The area that is spinning off the coast... Am I correct in assuming this is the system that could potentially cause all of this mayhem? Water Vapor Imagery http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/alwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 sick images all over the place on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM looks reminiscent of the EURO. That's an awesomely tight baroclinic zone. SREF mean is further SE but there's a fair bit of spread to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 sick images all over the place on this run. Wow, talk about an amazing jet structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Geebus, that's 6-10" of JUST WAA snow in Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan. And that's assuming A CONSERVATIVE snow to liquid ratio of 12:1. It's easily 8-12" wiht a more realisitic ratio. I'm seriously not gonna survive this weekened. I have never wished a weekend away so fast before. hope the models hold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nam would keep me home for a while 1.5 to 2 inches Of qpf all frozen. Good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm seriously not gonna survive this weekened. I have never wished a weekend away so fast before. hope the models hold! statement alert sometimes the big ones get pegged from pretty far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm predicting mass suicides when this thing shifts to MSP....should i order the body bags?? :lmao: No...but this does look good for CHI... Hope MKE gets 20 inches or more... Maybe 30 inches for Bow and 40 inches for Saukville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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