Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 nice trajectories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z GFS doesn't come out until 3.30 your time, so that was definitely an old run. EURO looks great for N IL/S WI. Other models are close with room for improvement. You're definitely in the game. As far as the 18z goes.. I figured it was an old one. I guess I will go have a look at what the other models are showing. With those maps, a 40 mile shift north puts NE IL in the thick of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 As far as the 18z goes.. I figured it was an old one. I guess I will go have a look at what the other models are showing. With those maps, a 40 mile shift north puts NE IL in the thick of it. Date/Time are usually at the top so you can tell whether it's an old run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I am guessing the euro far NW track compared to everything else is the standard now? I just looked at the GEM ensemble mean and its south of the OP by quite a bit...the GFS ensembles are south as well..the ukmet, GFS, GEM also have the storm south of the EURO. what does the Euro ensembles say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Here's the mean H5 setup at 120 the 120 ggem 500 members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I've been a bit upset about that myself, but I think the rapid eastward progression of most of the solutions keep the heaviest snow just to our south with all but the Euro. That said, the Forecast Discussion for this afternoon for MKE said if the system doesn't shift further north, the factors are favorable for lake effect along the western shores of Lake Michigan. Sounds overall like a win-win, should that pan out. Either we get decent lake effect or a strong storm. Def. snow weenie doing that AFD.. He gets a 12 pack of weenie buns just for the LES. THE TREND HAS BEEN CLEAR...AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE FORECAST SCENARIO. THE GFS HAS TRENDED NORTH ON THE LOW TRACK FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS...NOW TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KY. THE ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED NORTH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...TAKING THE LOW ACROSS IN. THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE. OBVIOUSLY THE ECMWF IS A VERY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS A VERY ANOMALOUS 60 KNOT EASTERLY 850 MB JET ACROSS THE CHICAGO AND MILWAUKEE AREAS...TYPICAL OF MAJOR WINTER STORMS. GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH THIS STORM IS RATHER HIGH. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY AS IT NOW STANDS AND NOT TREND NORTH...850 MB TEMPERATURES AND DEEP CONSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD. SO IF THE STORM DOES NOT CONTINUE TO TREND NORTH...THERE COULD BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT OVER A PERIOD OF 4 DAYS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 They are going to do a special flight in to gather better data for the 0z suite? It said it wouldn't get in there until the 00z Sunday run at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 nam looks like its digging that sw even further back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Updated Hazards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 would it be possible to end up with 2 closed lows, one in the sw and one over the n. rockies? if so, wonder how that would play out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Def. snow weenie doing that AFD.. He gets a 12 pack of weenie buns just for the LES. maybe Aleking is right and MKE took on Torchartie once he received his Met. designation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 nam looks like its digging that sw even further back Def going to start our further south then 12z. It is also colder out front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Pure speculation but it looks like the NAM would perhaps not hang it back quite as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Def going to start our further south then 12z. It is also colder out front. Friv, I just looked at the 12z GFS for the first time and wow...it really buries STL south to me, then pretty much south until you hit the rain/snow line. Could be great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 LOL at the NAM. That would be plains armageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 great gulf flow advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 maybe Aleking is right and MKE took on Torchartie once he received his Met. designation... Not to far off from the HA map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not sure if this was posted (just got home) but here is MKE AFD: THE GFS HAS TRENDED NORTH ON THE LOW TRACK FORTHE PAST 18 HOURS...NOW TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KY. THE ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED NORTH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...TAKING THE LOW ACROSS IN. THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE. OBVIOUSLY THE ECMWF IS A VERY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS A VERY ANOMALOUS 60 KNOT EASTERLY 850 MB JET ACROSS THE CHICAGO AND MILWAUKEE AREAS...TYPICAL OF MAJOR WINTER STORMS. GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH THIS STORM IS RATHER HIGH. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY AS IT NOW STANDS AND NOT TREND NORTH...850 MB TEMPERATURES AND DEEP CONSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD. SO IF THE STORM DOES NOT CONTINUE TO TREND NORTH...THERE COULD BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT OVER A PERIOD OF 4 DAYS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 You know, it's about time we had a MASSIVE center-of-the-country storm that shuts us down for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 great gulf flow advertised. All that juice overrunning that tight baroclinic zone. It's almost sexual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 wow that looks like the makings of a triple phaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 panhandle area getting ready to go off here, flow just starting to back in far west TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 that looks like the makings of a triple phaser I dunno. It's be tough to phase with the PV given its positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 that 850 0 line across IL IN OH is trembling with fear ready to tuck tail and run north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I dunno. It's be tough to phase with the PV given its positioning. maybe a 2.5 phaser.....just a piece of the pv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 All that juice overrunning that tight baroclinic zone. It's almost sexual. It's almost scary to think of how good this could be if things were to break right. Just an outstanding setup that has been teased on some runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not to far off from the HA map. :guitar: Now that is a map I can live with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I noticed while looping the NAM at H5 that the last frame has the northern low moving westward. Leads me to believe that it would continue that retrogression beyond 84 similar to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I noticed while looping the NAM at H5 that the last frame has the northern low moving westward. Leads me to believe that it would continue that retrogression beyond 84 similar to the other models. i figured it was ready to drop right into the sw opening up the gates to invite in the big daddy to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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