A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 wow every model run delivered while i slept. insane looking setup. I'm honestly thrilled the GFS is a little south, helps temper rain concerns. What a monster in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This thing is being pumped moisture by a 65kt jet at 850mb on the NAM at 84hr...impressive. Only going to get more epic as we get into future runs. now back to bed till the 12z NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 wow every model run delivered while i slept. insane looking setup. I'm honestly thrilled the GFS is a little south, helps temper rain concerns. What a monster in the making. easily the most excited I've ever been in the winter over one run even though its still a few days out. 0z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 easily the most excited I've ever been in the winter over one run even though its still a few days out. 0z Euro I'm playing catchup here but i'll say this, the 2"+ QPF on the Euro is not at all unbelievable with those insane vectors deep into the gulf. Really just hope we can stay snow at this point. What an incredible run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I support this message. I second that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 iwx's morning discussion mentioned blizzard, crippling, and over a foot a possibility. at this point it isn't if there's a huge storm, just where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I support this message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 iwx's morning discussion mentioned blizzard, crippling, and over a foot a possibility. at this point it isn't if there's a huge storm, just where. I believe those were my exact words to my brother last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I support this message. Oh lovely LOL map how I :wub: the. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Setup looks like the potential for a historical midwest snowstorm or at least a major midwest snowstorm. Historic potential indeed. wow every model run delivered while i slept. insane looking setup. I'm honestly thrilled the GFS is a little south, helps temper rain concerns. What a monster in the making. All rain shouldn't be your concern...like 5% chance IMO. Realize that even with the Euro's track (farthest NW) it's a pretty serious/major ice/mix storm here. Even in the worst case scenario (another good bump NW from its current track), you'd be facing what we're staring down the barrel right now. But nah, it's got potential to be...well, I really like where you're sitting. Look where this low is originating and think back to the big dog snowstorms in Chicago's past. But like anything in weather, nothing ever is set in stone. Hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Some thoughts. Phasing of the great basin and pacific cyclones over the mountain west looks like almost a lock. Right there I think this takes anyone looking for something far south out of the game. Second is that we see a solid trend towards ejecting a good piece out of the southwest away from the retro grading. To me this makes explosive lee side cyclogenisis likely. Lots of offices are mentioning the thermal fields on the nam for good reason. For these reasons I'm leaning hard towards the euro and nam and wouldn't be shocked to see them come more northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I support this message. Well if nothing else, it makes for a nice wallpaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well if nothing else, it makes for a nice wallpaper. Reminds me of 2/13-14/07 image.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Historic potential indeed. All rain shouldn't be your concern...like 5% chance IMO. Realize that even with the Euro's track (farthest NW) it's a pretty serious/major ice/mix storm here. Even in the worst case scenario (another good bump NW from its current track), you'd be facing what we're staring down the barrel right now. But nah, it's got potential to be...well, I really like where you're sitting. Look where this low is originating and think back to the big dog snowstorms in Chicago's past. But like anything in weather, nothing ever is set in stone. Hope for the best. Yeah, all rain is unlikely. I like where I sit but have some concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah, all rain is unlikely. I like where I sit but have some concerns. I understand your bit of concern, but I guess it's easier for me to tell you not to worry. Your previous post makes good sense, but I really think the initial push of cold will turn this thing southeast earlier, but in the end we'll end up close to what the Euro is showing once it gets to IN/OH...if you know what I mean. I just really really like Chicago's position right now...I'm pretty excited for you all. BTW, the 0z Euro ensemble mean at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I support this message. That is why I love the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Oh lovely LOL map how I :wub: the. Is it safe to just use a blend of the EURO and GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I understand your bit of concern, but I guess it's easier for me to tell you not to worry. Your previous post makes good sense, but I really think the initial push of cold will turn this thing southeast earlier, but in the end we'll end up close to what the Euro is showing once it gets to IN/OH...if you know what I mean. I just really really like Chicago's position right now...I'm pretty excited for you all. BTW, the 0z Euro ensemble mean at 96 hours. If i had to pick anywhere to be right now, it would be Chicago, you have to gamble with rain if your want the big dogs. Either way, the likelihood that someone between say Champaign and Daddylonglegs sees 12"+ is pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I woke up this morning not knowing what to expect... This is insane. Last QPF value I read for Chicago before going to bed was like 1.10 or something... Now, with the latest Euro run it's 2.13?? That's insane. With 10:1 ratios thats 20" of snow! That is unbelievable. Obviously, with this storm, someone is getting clocked, I just can't believe it could be a good portion of the GL As far as track goes..I figure we will wind up with little corrections between now and Tuesday, but I will feel better once the energy is onshore and sampled, but the way the models to one degree or another seem to agree, there is little to argue with. Besides that, I have no reasoning at all for a saying "this thing trends way NW" or "Look out for the SE jump"... so I am not even going to speculate like that. I am thinking that maybe the QPF might be overdone, simply from the standpoint that I don't believe we see 2.13" over us. 20" of snow would be unreal. Just looking over the snow fall maps, even some small track adjustments could drop anywhere from 6-12" around here, and that is nothing to sneeze at either. I am just sitting here in awe, watching the potential for this thing unfold. I guess I always figured if we got a big snow here in NE IL, it would be the result of a sudden shift in storm track, or an overperformer or something. (Dec 15, 2007 I think was like that, we were forecast for 3-5" or something and got 10", I think) Anyway, I can see the maps, get the logic, and read everyone's analysis, and know that something is coming this way. Snow is in the cards, that's almost a lock.... How much? God only knows. 2.13" of qpf?? I'm speechless.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If i had to pick anywhere to be right now, it would be Chicago, you have to gamble with rain if your want the big dogs. Either way, the likelihood that someone between say Champaign and Daddylonglegs sees 12"+ is pretty damn good. Here's my "heavy" snowfall zone north/south borders for ishts and giggles. Always subject to change, but I feel pretty good about it right now. -north end: OMA to DSM to DBQ to MSN to GRR to FNT to YYZ -south end: MCI to PIA to GUS to TOL to etc. -certainly expect 6-10"+ amounts in this zone, if not totals approaching/exceeding 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If i had to pick anywhere to be right now, it would be Chicago, you have to gamble with rain if your want the big dogs. Either way, the likelihood that someone between say Champaign and Daddylonglegs sees 12"+ is pretty damn good. I'm here to talk you down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm here to talk you down. Because i get up so often I was out last night, have you shared any thoughts with this one yet, you like where we sit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I support this message. sexiest damn map I have seen this season. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Through 54...slightly more amplified, little more WAA...colder air coming in slightly faster on the backside...hell of a baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I suppopse the 00z NAM would have done something similar to what the 06z DGEX shows if extrapolated. It's a very Nice hit for the Chciago-Detroit-Toronto corridor, but there's absolutely NO ROOM for a northward adjustment when it comes to Detroit with the 0*C 850mb stretching from Ohio to just NE of Lake Erie (same with 540m). So yeah, lock it all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Through 54...slightly more amplified, little more WAA...colder air coming in slightly faster on the backside...hell of a baroclinic zone. a good bit more, it's trending warmer out east with each run. At this rate, Chicago will be above 0 at 850 by the 0z run. On the plus side WAA snows looking better and better and might still be underdone with that kind of flow, might need headlines just for these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Because i get up so often I was out last night, have you shared any thoughts with this one yet, you like where we sit? I do, on this one. The synoptic pattern is exceedingly favorable, to an extent which I've not seen in some time. This is the perfect time for the NAO to go positive, and the PNA ridge looks to be in the ideal position. The PV is also in a great place to hold in a moderately strong elongated surface ridge to the north, thereby providing plenty of cold, dry northeasterly air, so no worries on that end. We're certainly going to be playing in the danger zone wrt model runs for the next 48 hours though, and feedback-type cyclogenesis is on the table, which is exciting and worrisome at the same time. I loathe the NAM past 48 hours, but it does seem to be in agreement with the Euro on deep and rapid lee-cyclogenesis across Texas. A few major concerns in general: 1) Sharp northern cut-off with precipitation is likely real. So, you've either not enough lift to overcome the dry air or you don't. A 50 mile zone from heavy snow to almost nothing is probably in the cards. 2) Feedback cyclogenesis can wreak havoc with the modeling. The fact that the Euro and NAM (higher res) are more wound up earlier than the lower res GEM and GFS says something in my book. 3) There's likely to be a tremendous amount of WAA aloft, and we all know how well the models do with that at this time frame. This needs to be watched very closely, as it will have serious consequences in terms of ice and mixing well north of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Much stronger WAA snows in IL/WI/MI by HR 60/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Reminds me of 2/13-14/07 image.. CIPS top analog is 2/13/2007! http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=096&flg=new Imagine that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Mixing knocking on the door by hr 60. Going to have to watch for some convective elements in that WAA action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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