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January 31-February 2 Major Winter Storm part 3

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Central/Western States

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B-Rent

B-Rent

Posted
Posted

Its late, I dont know why I'm even up still. Gotta be in South Bend by 10am. 06z NAM looks like a major ice storm as surface temps actually fall a good bit here but 925-850 temps rise. It sucks, would love all snow. Guess we'll see soon enough.

Me too, I have to work no matter what, no calling off for weather. Its much easier to get there in 12" of snow than it is .5" of ice. I was around for the ice storm a few years back. Enough for me.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

GRR AFD

Doesn't look like they are budging from following the GFS, even with it nudging further North.

MKE will make it up enough for them lol. If not there is Davenport to.. If not them.. Well w/e because its all up in the air anyways. Nobody is right.. And anybody who thinks they're no matter what side you're on better check themselves.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

DTX AFD

THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A WINTER STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THEN WEIGHS HEAVILY ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY...ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN. STRONG UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL DROP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. A DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN FORM OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY (NOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA) DROPS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE RIDGING DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE. LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW UP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRACKING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS NOW FAVORED AMONG MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO EXACT LOW TRACK AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDS INTO MICHIGAN. 00Z GFS IS DROPPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FURTHER SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE (AND DRY FEED OF AIR) AND A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE WAY IT HANDLES THIS ENERGY WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEM/EURO/UKMET...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THESE OTHER SOLUTIONS. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE AREA...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS TO CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES MOVE ONSHORE AND BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR DATA. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR A DRY FEED OF AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...TO DEVELOP A SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. AS IT LOOKS NOW...WOULD SEE THERMAL CONVERGENCE INCREASE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT ON MONDAY AS IT VERY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD AND STALLS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN/OHIO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WOULD SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO RIDE OVER THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD INCREASE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...FGEN INCREASES...AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. EURO ALSO SHOWS VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WITH VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING TRANSITIONING TO A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE LATE. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONG DEFORMATION AND TROWAL CONTINUING TO SPREAD SNOW INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. AT THIS TIME MODEL THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINING ALL SNOW...BUT WILL WATCH TO SEE IF LOW TRACK SHIFT TO THE LEFT AND ALLOWS SOME WARMER AIR TO SNEAK UP INTO THE AREA. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AS FAR NORTH AS SAGINAW AND SANDUSKY BASED ON RUNS OF THE GEM AND EURO. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY AS IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE LOW TRACK. GFS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE MISSING US JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND KEEPS SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES LIMITED TO ONLY 2 G/KG. EURO SHOWS MORE OF A GULF TAP...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REACHING 3 G/KG THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. EURO ALSO SHOWS QPF IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS RUNNING AT ABOUT HALF OF THAT...AND ONLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. (18Z GFS WAS AROUND AN INCH FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.) THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIME TO WATCH THIS STORM SYSTEM EVOLVE...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AS IT COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA.

DTX going with the multi model consensus even mentions the potential of things getting a hair too warm.

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snowlord81

snowlord81

Posted
Posted

Me too, I have to work no matter what, no calling off for weather. Its much easier to get there in 12" of snow than it is .5" of ice. I was around for the ice storm a few years back. Enough for me.

Me on the other hand, if we go under a warning first thing Im doing is calling into work. Then stockpiling firewood and several oatmeal stouts to relax around the fire with! :drunk: I've been waiting all winter to do so as I just bought my first place.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

MKE will make it up enough for them lol. If not there is Davenport to.. If not them.. Well w/e because its all up in the air anyways. Nobody is right.. And anybody who thinks they're no matter what side you're on better check themselves.

DTX did, and MKX did too.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW KEYING ON UPPER JET ENERGY AND POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF COUPLED STRUCTURE WHICH FAVORS A EUROPEAN AND A SMIDGE OF THE CANADIAN MODEL FOR PLACEMENT OF KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GFS UPPER JET STRUCTURE TENDS TO POINT TO THE IDEA OF THE EUROPEAN AND THE DEGREE OF RAIN AMOUNTS/QPF AND PLACEMENT OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE HEAVIER SNOW AREA GETTING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. RAIN AMOUNTS/QPF SHOW WELL OVER 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA. IF THIS PANS OUT...YIKES! THE GFS MADE THEIR BIG JUMP YESTERDAY BUT HAVE STAYED FIRM ON KEEPING HEAVY SNOW SOUTH. EUROPEAN MODEL AGAIN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE CANADIAN LIES IN BETWEEN...BUT OF COURSE THE CANADIAN HAS BACKED OFF FROM WHERE IT WAS. AT THIS POINT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH AND LOWEST IN THE NORTH. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IS THERE TOO EVEN IF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS STAY FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN NUMERICAL MODEL SHOW NORTH/NORTHEAST PERSISTING THIS PERIOD WITH FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAKE TEMPERATURE AND ABOUT 5000 FEET.
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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

IWX AFD

...MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK... POTENT NORTHERN PAC UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTO THE CONUS. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE NOW LOCATED NEAR 140W 40N IS THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...CLEARLY WRAPPED UP IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE SW CONUS AS AN ASSOCIATED 100+ KNOT UPPER JET ADVECTS SOUTH ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT NE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WED AS A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES AND SUPPORTS LONG WAVE PHASING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A PORTION OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW AND A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT INTENSE POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF GOMEX ORIGIN AIRMASS...INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING PER HEIGHT ADJUSTMENT PROCESS WITH A LONG DURATION OF LIFT WILL FORCE RATHER INTENSE PROLONGED UPGLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND PUSHES NE ON WED. LINGERING ARCTIC AIRMASS AND A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE PER DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WARMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A ROUND OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE VERY SIMILAR IN SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WITH SOME SPREAD IN STORM TRACK/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/AND SFC WAVE INTENSITY. THE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM BEING A SW CONUS EJECTING HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FURTHER WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE SFC LOW. BUT GIVEN THE RATHER INTENSE ARCTIC SURGE PER THE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...ANY FURTHER TRENDS WEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL ATTM...WITH PREFERENCE TOWARD A SOLUTION AKIN TO 00Z GEM/ECMWF/18Z DGEX PROGS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH CURRENT CIPS ANALOGS...WHICH SUGGEST A STORM TRACK THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...PUTTING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA IN THE DIRECT PATH FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY PER THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE WHICH WILL BE RESOLVED THE NEXT FEW CYCLES...BEING AIDED BY NCEP DIRECTED RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO THE EASTERN PAC. A RATHER STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION..SETTING THE PATHWAY FOR WEAK FAST MOVING NW FLOW DISTURBANCES. HAVE RETAINED SNOW CHANCES WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST. THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING BY LATER TUE AS MAJOR HEIGHT ADJUSTMENT PER THE SW CONUS EJECTING DISTURBANCE WILL ENSUE. PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW AS UPGLIDE DEEPENS WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA POSSIBLY UNDER DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION. STRONG LLJ WITH GOMEX CONNECTION WOULD SUPPORT POTENT THETA-E ADV WITH HIGH QPF AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ECMWF PROGS ARE THE MOST WORRISOME AT THIS POINT...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT PROGGED OVER A PORTION OF THE FA. IN ADDITION...STAUNCH SFC PRESSURE FALLS PER THE DEEPENING UPPER IMPULSE WITH CLOSING OF THE H5 LOW NOTED IN SOME GEFS AND MODEL SOLUTIONS...WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING LL WINDS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BEING POSSIBLE.

SOME CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT MANY PLACES COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THINGS TAPER OFF LATER WED...AND IF THE WINDS DEVELOP AS IN MANY PROGS...THE REGION COULD CERTAINLY BE CRIPPLED. MIXED PRECIP IS STILL A CONCERN IF A WESTERN ADJUSTMENT TAKES PLACE...AND HAVE ADDED A CHANCE MENTION OF ZR/IP IN THE SE. CIPS ANALOGS DO POINT TOWARD SOLUTIONS SIMILAR TO GEM/ECMWF SYNOPTIC PROGS. HOWEVER...RESULTANT SYSTEM INTENSITY WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION...DICTATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND OVERALL IMPACT. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ADJUSTMENT LIKELY.

Certainly talked up from IWX and they are hedging their bets towards the GGEM EURO

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

How many times have we seen the NW trend before?

I don't need reasoning. It's logic imo. HPC, most of the mets here etc are all riding the euro and said a NW trend is very likley.

Anyways, think what you want. EURO will win out in the end.

And this is why it's ludicrous when you criticize the OH folks for being weenies.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

It's a pretty good potential, but at least for me being the far to the N & E I'm not too enamored with the responsible s/w shearing out in the confluence over Quebec/NNE. Seems like most of the models either shunt or weaken the QPF fields as they approach me. Now, in the EURO's case, that's not a problem because 2" goes to 1" lol, but if it's overdoing things like Justin mentioned, this might be ho hum around here. Would prefer if more of that northern s/w ejected out with the main one.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

DVN

...LIKELY SNOW EVENT MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY

FORECAST ISSUE...

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION ADEQUATE WITH DEEPLY

OCCLUDED LOW OFF CALIFORNIA STILL A QUESTION. INITIALIZATION AND

TRENDS PLUS 06Z VERIFICATION CONTINUE TO SUPPORT USING AT LEAST A

75/25 BLEND OF GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH

THERMAL INPUTS FROM 80 KM NAM-WRF. MOST SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT GFS...

SUGGEST A OVERLY OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH IS INCONSISTENT WITH EJECTING

SYSTEM IN FAST ZONAL FLOW. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TOTALS APPEAR ON

TAP OVER A 48 HOUR PLUS PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS AOA

6" POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTH 1/3 TO POSSIBLY 1/2 SECTIONS SUGGESTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MINOR CHANGES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS

AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM

NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO THE BEGINNING OF THE

EXTENDED PERIOD OF WEAK FORCING OR UPGLIDE AT 750 TO 850 MB LEVELS

WITH NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS. LIQUID TO WATER RATIOS OF 15-25+ TO 1 ARE

SUPPORTED WHICH MAY RESULT IN UP TO A HALF INCH OF A POWDERY DRY SNOW

IN THE FAR NORTHWEST BY MONDAY AM. WITH CLOUDS...SUGGESTION MINS MAY

STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL FOR LATER SHIFTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GFS BY FAR IS MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND

LOCAL TECHNIQUES ALSO SUGGEST A SLIGHT FURTHER SOUTH TREND MAY OCCUR

NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HENCE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE

POWDERY...DRY SNOW FOR A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD WITH BEST FORCING AND

HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL

LOCAL TOOLS SUGGEST NORTH 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA...OR SOUTH DOWN TO THE

HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR ON TAP TO RECEIVE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE

CENTRAL 1/3 OF THE AREA...OR THE HIGHWAY 30 TO HIGHWAY 34

CORRIDORS...APPEAR TO BE SLATED FOR 4 TO 7 INCHES. THE SOUTH 1/3

SECTIONS ARE FAVORED ATTM TO RECEIVE 6 TO 9 PLUS INCHES. THIS WOULD

SUPPORT THE RISK OF A HEADLINE OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTH 1/2 TO

POSSIBLY 2/3 SECTIONS. STILL...WE ARE 60 TO 72 HOURS OUT AND TRENDS

DO SUGGEST A SLIGHT SOUTH TREND. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR

LATER SHIFTS WITH DECISION TO GO WITH A WATCH 12 TO 24 HOURS AWAY.

MINS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW MAY STILL NEED UPPING A FEW DEGREES FOR

LATER SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25+ MPH TUESDAY

INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN DRIFTING OF THIS POWDERY SNOW WITH

POSSIBLY SOME MINOR BLOWING SNOW IN FAVORED OPEN AREAS FOR LATER

SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.

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