Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the euro is way diff then the other guidance.. Kind of like back in Dec. when the GFS/UKIE/GEM were all in Kentucky or OTS and the Euro had a storm near Chicago for 8-9 runs in a row. What model ended up right? I second what Stevo said about the no blocking, positive AO etc. It's just a set up for the NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I second this.. HPC was going with a track through central KY earlier with snow north of the OH river.. so if they updated tonight, then they did an awfully big flop. plz keep your garbage in your own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 In this pattern with no block, positive AO and possible phasing NW trends are more likely thats all. Sure a further SE track is posible but thats only if a weaker phase occurs or if the PV unexpectedly moves. Still plenty of outcomes. Why all the bitterness and arguing? Not arguing or bitter.. Just a freindly conversation when nothing else is going on.. lol.. And hey I'm a gambler.. Never made a bet on weather lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 In this pattern with no block, positive AO and possible phasing NW trends are more likely thats all. Sure a further SE track is posible but thats only if a weaker phase occurs or if the PV unexpectedly moves. Still plenty out outcomes Pretty much. I'm leaning northwest largely due to this although I doubt there will be a major shift at this point. I wouldn't guarantee it and I could be wrong but just calling it like I see it...and keep in mind a northwest solution would probably give me much less snow. Relax guys, this is still days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 06z NAM is rolling the H5 vort is much further south out west..in North Mexico now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Kind of like back in Dec. when the GFS/UKIE/GEM were all in Kentucky or OTS and the Euro had a lake cutter for 8-9 runs in a row. What model ended up right? I second what Stevo said about the no blocking, positive AO etc. It's just a set up for the NW trend. I understand what your saying, but it is still completely irrelevant. It's just model fantasy talk. That storm and which models did what mean nothing with this, I guarantee this will be different, every weather system is different. Every single one. That is all I am saying..all we can do right now is use guidance and see how it correlates to real time weather. Using model runs from months ago on a completely different event is not the right way to look at the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Why go against the best model though. That's why I am saying. EURO makes complete sense, and we all know how these type of storms love to trend NW in later runs. Outside of 2 runs, the best model has been the most consistent. Why bet against it? It's obviously seeing something differen't then the other models, but it has the best scores for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pretty much. I'm leaning northwest largely due to this although I doubt there will be a major shift at this point. I wouldn't guarantee it and I could be wrong but just calling it like I see it...and keep in mind a northwest solution would probably give me much less snow. Relax guys, this is still days away. Agree, Im not trying to argue. Im trying to get some logic besides "I think all storms trend NW, so will this one". Where dealing with phasing and what have models screwed up with more than anything this year so far? Phasing. Wait till were within 72 hrs to celebrate. Whichever way it goes Im all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Im not happy with how the euro looks up here in Omaha Nebraska. Just skims us. Here's hoping for a more northwest track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Why go against the best model though. That's why I am saying. EURO makes complete sense, and we all know how these type of storms love to trend NW in later runs. Outside of 2 runs, the best model has been the most consistent. Why bet against it? It's obviously seeing something differen't then the other models, but it has the best scores for a reason. One small change could blow the euro up.. it isn't even being sampled on land yet, so fact is it is hard to tell what's going to happen. We know we're going to get a phase. That is the one consistency. After that is up in the air. If its weaker it will go se, stronger prolly nw.. its a toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Euro would be a beautiful birthday present for me on 2/1. I just can't fathom that kind of QPF its unreal. I usually like to take the insane QPF's for Winter events and cut them by 1/3. That would be a more realistic solution. Keep this in mind... with the strong high nosing down out of Canada that axis of the cold air coming down will likely move/drive Southward first before bleeding/moving Southeastward. That axis of coldest air would tend to cause the path of least resistance to the NNE of the storm center, initially. Then as the cold air is drawn Southeastward the storm center/low would have to respond by having a bit of a more Eastward component. With this all in mind and where the jet streaks are setting up, and where phasing is occurring I would tend to favor a track from the North Central Texas area up to Southwest Indiana before a turn more towards the ENE begins. Thus a bit to the SE of the Euro and a bit NW of the GFS. Of course once all this gets on shore I expect some adjustments from the models. Everyone from the Ohio River all the way up to OMA DSM MSN is still in the game. Usually I like having the Euro on my side though, always been a bit of a personal opinion. I'm happy with just 0.70" of water because that would get me close to 10" and we finally break our stretch of 12 years without a 10" storm. I really would hate to see my area shut down from nearly two feet of snow for two or three days. I saw those QPF outputs and had to pick my bottom lip up off the floor, then had a laugh. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z EURO Thursday night had 2.00" qpf here in Omaha then went to only about .15 for tonights 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Euro would be a beautiful birthday present for me on 2/1. I just can't fathom that kind of QPF its unreal. I usually like to take the insane QPF's for Winter events and cut them by 1/3. That would be a more realistic solution. Keep this in mind... with the strong high nosing down out of Canada that axis of the cold air coming down will likely move/drive Southward first before bleeding/moving Southeastward. That axis of coldest air would tend to cause the path of least resistance to the NNE of the storm center, initially. Then as the cold air is drawn Southeastward the storm center/low would have to respond by having a bit of a more Eastward component. With this all in mind and where the jet streaks are setting up, and where phasing is occurring I would tend to favor a track from the North Central Texas area up to Southwest Indiana before a turn more towards the ENE begins. Thus a bit to the SE of the Euro and a bit NW of the GFS. Of course once all this gets on shore I expect some adjustments from the models. Everyone from the Ohio River all the way up to OMA DSM MSN is still in the game. Usually I like having the Euro on my side though, always been a bit of a personal opinion. I'm happy with just 0.70" of water because that would get me close to 10" and we finally break our stretch of 12 years without a 10" storm. I really would hate to see my area shut down from nearly two feet of snow for two or three days. I saw those QPF outputs and had to pick my bottom lip up off the floor, then had a laugh. Wow. Appreciate the logical response. I was thinking a compromise between the ECM and GFS would work. Would still probably give me an ice storm and maybe a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thoughts on the NAM so far? HR 81 has a 1004 low in NE Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z EURO Thursday night had 2.00" qpf here in Omaha then went to only about .15 for tonights 0z Dont worry though, it makes complete sense. Dont bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HR 84 has a sub 1000 mb low in E. OK. Heading NE from 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thoughts on the NAM so far? HR 81 has a 1004 low in NE Texas. 1st wave is rain for ohio with the exception to northern OH.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Doesn't seem like the NAM would have any problem cutting some cheese.. Talking the NAM at full weenie extension tho. SV, NAM maps have always screwed with me and I have no clue with this thing.. So its probably worse than the gfs lol.. I should just stick to NCEP maps. or better yet not even commenting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The 6z NAM is DEF much more northwest; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 1st wave is rain for ohio with the exception to northern OH.. Surface temps look to stay below 32 degrees. Probably ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 06z nam would have a deadly and flat out amazing ice storm for STL. would probably be historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 they are still cooling there...we would be freaking destroyed guys, flat out destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 One small change could blow the euro up.. it isn't even being sampled on land yet, so fact is it is hard to tell what's going to happen. We know we're going to get a phase. That is the one consistency. After that is up in the air. If its weaker it will go se, stronger prolly nw.. its a toss. This applies to every model so its irrelevent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Man last few pages people getting a little hostile, I think its early to call anything in any direction really. I mean some of us are going to hedge our bets one way or another. But there shouldn't talk in definite on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This applies to every model so its irrelevent. You're right about the first part. But it isn't irrelevent. It just shows that it's pointless to hug one run this far out. As stated earlier, it was giving some members here 60" and now giving them pretty much nothing. Just goes to show nothing is set in stone.. Don't worry I'm throwing in the towel by 12z Sunday if the Euro hasn't budged or if other guidance moves toward the euro tomorrow. We'll know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Man last few pages people getting a little hostile, I think its early to call anything in any direction really. I mean some of us are going to hedge our bets one way or another. But there shouldn't talk in definite on anything. Its late, I dont know why I'm even up still. Gotta be in South Bend by 10am. 06z NAM looks like a major ice storm as surface temps actually fall a good bit here but 925-850 temps rise. It sucks, would love all snow. Guess we'll see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM is definitely the farthest nw of all the models. Its 850 freezing line goes from se KS to Hannibal, MO to northern IN and OH, and it doesn't budge from 72 to 84 hrs as the low shoots up along it. Extrapolated, this would be a big hit for the Omaha to Chicago corridor. I'm still not getting excited, although it's nice to have the NAM and Euro on my side for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GRR AFD THE EURO CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE SFC LOW NEXT WEEK AND WOULD BRING A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS WOULD KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST REASONING IS THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT. THAT IS...BASED ON THE ANTECEDENT ARCTIC SFC RIDGING WITH DRY NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...HAVE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE DRIER...FURTHER SOUTH GFS AND BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ADDED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS TO ALLOW FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO MOISTEN UP THE DRIER LOW LEVELS AND HAVE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT THERE. WENT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD WIN OUT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AOB 5 KFT AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST SO LAKE EFFECT SHOULD NOT BE TOO HEAVY. FLOW IS NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY THEN SWINGS SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE WELL INLAND. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. Doesn't look like they are budging from following the GFS, even with it nudging further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GRR AFD Doesn't look like they are budging from following the GFS, even with it nudging further North. The gfs I think went a little south compared to the 18z run didn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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