Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 1.5" liquid would be a good start Its the NAM that is a given that 1.5" liquid will be coming, probably as early at 12z later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know its early, but good luck up there. If it pans out please take plenty of pictures so I can see what Im missing out on! I'm cautiously optimistic. I would like to see the GFS come onboard. If anything near the ECMWF were to verify i'd stream live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm cautiously optimistic. I would like to see the GFS come onboard. If anything near the ECMWF were to verify i'd stream live. party in streamwood ftw lol ok now bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Congrats man! Thanks. Third time is a charm. Our cyclone. Sweetness. http://cimss.ssec.wi...g11_wv_anim.gif That is an amazing loop. Will be interesting to see what hpc has to say about the models in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Several of the GFS ensemble members are really juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How juiced? Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How juiced? Link? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopnew.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm cautiously optimistic. I would like to see the GFS come onboard. If anything near the ECMWF were to verify i'd stream live. Well one minor detail I forgot, if the EURO verifies...I wont be watching anything, I'd prolly have no power...I guess I'm SOL. I cant be to greedy, been a decent nickel and dime winter here and my last 12+ snow was only about this time 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Quite a few of them look like the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 you guys are nutz i left like 5 hours ago and you added 24 pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Quite a few of them look like the EURO. Someone mentioned the NAM earlier...given how it can get qpf happy, I won't be surprised if a future run tries to annihilate somebody with 2" qpf in a 12 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 you guys are nutz i left like 5 hours ago and you added 24 pages. Want a cinnabon? http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/110128_g11_wv_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the backyardism is insane with the euro run. again.. I guess my region needs its own thread, wont be much posting in it though. the euro is way diff then the other guidance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Someone mentioned the NAM earlier...I won't be surprised if a future run tries to annihilate somebody with 2" qpf in a 12 hour period. 00z had a huge omega explosion all over at 84 hrs. I wouldnt either. Its tough to judge where the NAM would end up extrapolated out further. As much as the DGEX sucks, I wish it ran 4 times a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the backyardism is insane with the euro run. again.. I guess my region needs its own thread, wont be much posting in it though. the euro is way diff then the other guidance.. I agree with you. More posters are affected with massive snows with the EURO run so it seems as though thats the only track on the table, but we all know its not. Dont get caught up in the hype. Granted, The EURO is one that you want on your side. Its only two consistent runs were the 12z yesterday and this morning 00z which was a bit further south. It went from OTS via Mexico to north of me in one run. Give it time and watch the trends, thats all we can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I agree with you. More posters are affected with massive snows with the EURO run so it seems as though thats the only track on the table, but we all know its not. Dont get caught up in the hype. Granted, The EURO is one that you want on your side. Its only two consistent runs were the 12z yesterday and this morning 00z which was a bit further south. It went from OTS via Mexico to north of me in one run. Give it time and watch the trends, thats all we can do. The EURO is the one that even HPC is going with. It's been the most consistent outside of 2 runs. Do you think a storm is going to be modeled perfectly for over 200 hours without it making drastic changes at all? Euro has been better then the GFS in terms of consistency besides for 2 runs. EURO/NAM should be the ones that everyone watches. GFS/UKIE/GEM will trend farther NW, I pretty much gurantee that. We have seen this situation before earlier this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The EURO is the one that even HPC is going with. It's been the most consistent outside of 2 runs. Do you think a storm is going to be modeled perfectly for over 200 hours without it making drastic changes at all? Euro has been better then the GFS in terms of consistency besides for 2 runs. EURO/NAM should be the ones that everyone watches. GFS/UKIE/GEM will trend farther NW, I pretty much gurantee that. We have seen this situation before earlier this winter. you just gave zero scientific reasoning for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How many times have we seen the NW trend before? I don't need reasoning. It's logic imo. HPC, most of the mets here etc are all riding the euro and said a NW trend is very likley. Anyways, think what you want. EURO will win out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 you just gave zero scientific reasoning for this. I second this.. HPC was going with a track through central KY earlier with snow north of the OH river.. so if they updated tonight, then they did an awfully big flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The EURO is the one that even HPC is going with. It's been the most consistent outside of 2 runs. Do you think a storm is going to be modeled perfectly for over 200 hours without it making drastic changes at all? Euro has been better then the GFS in terms of consistency besides for 2 runs. EURO/NAM should be the ones that everyone watches. GFS/UKIE/GEM will trend farther NW, I pretty much gurantee that. We have seen this situation before earlier this winter. The GFS has been furthest south the entire time, for days making only minor adjustments. I believe it was 12z 1/27 the Euro was south in Mexico, and then 00z the 28th was on top of KIND. Rather large change IMO. Of course its last two runs 12z the 28th and 00z the 29th were fairly consistent. Im not saying anything other than lets not jump to conclusions 120hrs out. Everyone is off having wet dreams over one run of the EURO the same model that showed 60 inches of snow for Omaha last night? Please. BTW, The HPC from what I read took a blend of the 12z GFS ens. mean and the Euro ens. mean. But that was at 1:36pm Friday. Who knows...Dont get to uptight. I know Im not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How many times have we seen the NW trend before? I don't need reasoning. It's logic imo. HPC, most of the mets here etc are all riding the euro and said a NW trend is very likley. Anyways, think what you want. EURO will win out in the end. Put 10 on it says the euro don't stay in its current position? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC updated like an hour ago before the new 0z EURO came out and said they were taking a blend of the 0z NAM and the 12z EURO. Said the GFS was too far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Put 10 on it says the euro don't stay in its current position? Lol I would put 10 dollars on it that the storm track will end up more towards the EURO then the GFS. I'm liking a track like the EURO but maybe a TAD farther SE. It's not gonna end up in Kentucky though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Put 10 on it says the euro don't stay in its current position? Lol Dont worry about it. This is coming from the same guy thats been bitching about boring weather and SE trends all winter. One decent run of the EURO and his mind is made up. The only logic from this winter is for storms to fall apart once there within a certain time frame. Not shift NW. Who cares though, I'll take whatevers thrown my way by mother nature and not complain. Good luck to you OV guys (I guess Im included) We will need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I second this.. HPC was going with a track through central KY earlier with snow north of the OH river.. so if they updated tonight, then they did an awfully big flop. In this pattern with no block, positive AO and possible phasing NW trends are more likely thats all. Sure a further SE track is posible but thats only if a weaker phase occurs or if the PV unexpectedly moves. Still plenty of outcomes. Why all the bitterness and arguing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 please use some sort of fact base claims..saying the hpc says this or that means nothing. unless you can break down charts and ideas you can';t use BS as wish-casting. this is a science class not a poker table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I would put 10 dollars on it that the storm track will end up more towards the EURO then the GFS. I'm liking a track like the EURO but maybe a TAD farther SE. It's not gonna end up in Kentucky though. I just went to hpc and the most current I found was this EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 136 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 VALID 12Z MON JAN 31 2011 -12Z FRI FEB 04 2011 Could be wrong but that's the newest I found. And Ill take a bet that the euro goes towards the gfs, not the other way around.. this can't be based off of 1 set of runs either.. Meaning if say euro comes out at 12z and is more south the bet isn't over til we are 100% sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC updated like an hour ago before the new 0z EURO came out and said they were taking a blend of the 0z NAM and the 12z EURO. Said the GFS was too far SE. The HPC are just as big of model huggers as we are. Thats all we can do though. I partially agree and have said several times that I'd rather have the EURO on my side also. It seems the gfs and euro will never agree but a track split between the 2 would be good for most of us. This storm is just barely showing up on the NAM, we cant even see what happens with it so why even include it? Extrapolating is pointless as models usually have a mind of their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I just went to hpc and the most current I found was this EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 136 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 VALID 12Z MON JAN 31 2011 -12Z FRI FEB 04 2011 Could be wrong but that's the newest I found. And Ill take a bet that the euro goes towards the gfs, not the other way around.. this can't be based off of 1 set of runs either.. Meaning if say euro comes out at 12z and is more south the bet isn't over til we are 100% sure. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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