B-Rent Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 rather terrifying ice potential for LAF on the 00z Euro How does that look across this way? Are we in the same gradient or does it split us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 YYZ: 1.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 1.71 QPF for DET...and I thought the 12Z couldn't get any better ok, freeze this and warp us ahead 4 days please. :wub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 EC text is showing about 2.00 qpf for Midway - Chicago guessing close to if not all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thats cool and all but it can only get worse from here. Once its onshore and a day before I feel a lot better if we lose 1/2 that we are still in the .9 range, which would be over 10" of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The NWS watch/warning map is going to look like a Christmas tree in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 1.10" Humdinger. I can only imagine what that amount would be if the EURO didn't attach a jet pack to the low after 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ok, freeze this and warp us ahead 4 days please. :wub: Possibly the most historic amount of snow for DTW? Wheres michsnowfreak at!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 LAF could be crippled if the Euro verifies. Have to hope that it would rain hard enough to prevent maximum accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's all snow easily imo. 850 is below freezing and surface is probably like 30 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow, even I get .5-.75 qpf according to Bow. Euro remains pretty consistent in terms of the track, just a tad fast compared to 12z. Tainted with clipper fail and WAA... Not shutout but need help in round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 MDW raw data....this is just insane... TUE 06Z 01-FEB -5.9 -7.8 1026 74 100 0.04 553 532 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -6.2 -8.3 1025 81 94 0.10 552 533 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -4.7 -6.7 1023 77 91 0.04 552 534 WED 00Z 02-FEB -4.3 -7.3 1017 84 95 0.15 549 536 WED 06Z 02-FEB -4.6 -10.0 1009 86 100 0.61 542 535 WED 12Z 02-FEB -5.0 -13.3 1008 85 86 0.74 534 527 WED 18Z 02-FEB -3.9 -13.8 1015 72 83 0.41 535 523 THU 00Z 03-FEB -6.2 -12.2 1023 73 27 0.03 541 523 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The ice storm potential with this thing is huge. Where this all lays out will be very tricky to pin down all the way up to the event, but wherever it does it could be quite damaging. It's really too bad that ice storms like these cause so many problems cause they're actually very cool to witness firsthand. Hopefully there will be more sleet than freezing rain in the areas that will be impacted by the layer of warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Still scratching my head how this came in so wet.. thought for sure watching come in it would be se of 12z... Every run of the Euro has had me thinking naso good and then the last moment it makes a move. I suck at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Seems like a lot of QPF with a storm moving that fast. I'm guessing a decent amount of the QPF falls with the WAA/isentropic lift QPF about 24 hours in advance of the main storm lifting out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Tainted with clipper fail and WAA... Not shutout but need help in round 2. Not looking good for us in South Central Indiana according to the EURO. So, I am rooting for the GFS/UKMET, although I may be rooting for an ice storm. Maybe I should just root for the EURO then??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 How does that look across this way? Are we in the same gradient or does it split us? You're in a similar situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Question now becomes, what model do you guys think is right so far? What model makes the most sense. Euro/NAM would be the most farthest northwest, while GFS/UKIE/GEM takes the low through KY. while EURO takes it through S/C IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Humdinger. I can only imagine what that amount would be if the EURO didn't attach a jet pack to the low after 96 hours. I just got home in time for great news. I wonder if there will be any lake enhancement off Lake Ontario. If yes, things could get rather interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 MDW raw data....this is just insane... TUE 06Z 01-FEB -5.9 -7.8 1026 74 100 0.04 553 532 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -6.2 -8.3 1025 81 94 0.10 552 533 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -4.7 -6.7 1023 77 91 0.04 552 534 WED 00Z 02-FEB -4.3 -7.3 1017 84 95 0.15 549 536 WED 06Z 02-FEB -4.6 -10.0 1009 86 100 0.61 542 535 WED 12Z 02-FEB -5.0 -13.3 1008 85 86 0.74 534 527 WED 18Z 02-FEB -3.9 -13.8 1015 72 83 0.41 535 523 THU 00Z 03-FEB -6.2 -12.2 1023 73 27 0.03 541 523 That second set of - numbers is 850mb temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Skilling is up late tonight watching the models just like us lol.. "Big precip numbers out of the latest Canadian & European Center models on precip with next week's storm. Between Mon & Mon night, when a lead disturbance could lay down several inches of snow ahead of the main event later Tue into Wed, these models are kicking out water equiv precip values in excess of 1". These totals--if they verify--are stunning." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFK: 0.03" OMA: 0.60" MSP: 0.28" LSE: 0.44" DSM: 1.25" JLN: 1.28" OKC: 0.69" STL: 1.19" DVN: 1.81" MSN: 0.98" MKE: 1.26" FLD: 0.52" ORD: 2.13" DTW: 1.70" LAF: 1.50" IND: 1.42" PAH: 1.09" CMH: 1.15" DAY: 1.36" YYZ: 1.10" GRR: 1.45" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I just got home in time for great news. I wonder if there will be any lake enhancement off Lake Ontario. If yes, things could get rather interesting. Hmm...sounds really good but I'm kind of skeptical. I'd probably take the GFS QPF, add a tenth or two and go with that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That second set of - numbers is 850mb temp? yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Question now becomes, what model do you guys think is right so far? What model makes the most sense. Euro/NAM would be the most farthest northwest, while GFS/UKIE/GEM takes the low through KY. while EURO takes it through S/C IND. I think the Euro is likely a tad too fast with the southern stream wave ejecting into the plains--and it eventually tracks a tad farther N since that southern wave tracks ahead of the trough across the intermountain W unimpeded by the northern stream as it ejects into the plains. Euro is close--perhaps slow it down a tad. NAM is close too--but perhaps a tad too far S with the southern stream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFK: 0.03" OMA: 0.60" MSP: 0.28" LSE: 0.44" DSM: 1.25" JLN: 1.28" OKC: 0.69" STL: 1.19" DVN: 1.81" MSN: 0.98" MKE: 1.26" FLD: 0.52" ORD: 2.13" now can we hold this for 4 days!! DTW: 1.70" LAF: 1.50" IND: 1.42" PAH: 1.09" CMH: 1.15" DAY: 1.36" YYZ: 1.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Question now becomes, what model do you guys think is right so far? What model makes the most sense. Euro/NAM would be the most farthest northwest, while GFS/UKIE/GEM takes the low through KY. while EURO takes it through S/C IND. I'd take a stab that the Euro/NAM combo will be closest to correct. I won't list the reasons why so I don't make a fool of myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Question now becomes, what model do you guys think is right so far? What model makes the most sense. Euro/NAM would be the most farthest northwest, while GFS/UKIE/GEM takes the low through KY. while EURO takes it through S/C IND. I'm probably biased, but I'd go with a blend of the NAM/Euro at this point. I'm probably jaded from the many years of NW trends with SW flow systems, but it sure seems like the Euro has been on this thing from several days back. It did have a run or two that indicated a further south track, but it's basically been locked in for the last 3 days. I think the GFS is not nearly as dynamic with this storm as what it should be, and for that reason I expect it to adjust a bit northwest in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yes sir. Wow the ratios with this would be something then. Certainly over 12:1 maybe over 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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