wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know this is probably a bit early to be a major consideration, but in the band of the heaviest snow, what do you think the heaviest winds will be? Could they approach blizzard levels in some areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 FWIW...HPC going with a NAM/ECMWF blend, with a non-GFS solution at least at first... http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html Basically a LAF special. with a Chicago getting nailed and STL ice to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GUYS and Gals if your here. a very large area is going to get hammered with this system. the nam is strongest and west, but it's also bleeding cold south and would rail a large area with a huge ice storm and snow. the gfs nails a large area with 8+ the gfs ensemble mean is absurd. the gem is absurd a huge ice and snow storm. well the ukmet is the same, YES the Nogaps which is always DRY! and it's a major ice and snow event as well. game over. it's kinda lost that reputation lately. It's had several wound up too far nw solutions this year. Either way you're right...massive widespread winterstorm coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I would also go with a NAM/EURO blend. GFS has had a SE bias all winter (imo) and then the ukie/gem aren't good models at all. Euro is still the king. We'll see what it shows coming up in 30 mins or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It will be interesting to see how strong and deep this thing gets, but there definitely could be a strong gradient between the low and high, so winds could be an issue. Not only blowing snow, but gusty winds on top of an ice storm = not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know this is probably a bit early to be a major consideration, but in the band of the heaviest snow, what do you think the heaviest winds will be? Could they approach blizzard levels in some areas? Pressure gradient is large. It will be on the breezy side. If we get a sufficiently deepening storm, then I wouldn't doubt blizzard conditions in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I would also go with a NAM/EURO blend. GFS has had a SE bias all winter (imo) and then the ukie/gem aren't good models at all. Euro is still the king. We'll see what it shows coming up in 30 mins or so. The nam would end up colder and further south then the euro I think. by quite a bit....the nam is warm but has cold air moving south fast at 84 in the face of WAA....so the gradient would be insane.. probably a 200 mile wide area of 8+ inches of snow with 15-20 inches somewhere. and then a crippling ice storm south of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know this is probably a bit early to be a major consideration, but in the band of the heaviest snow, what do you think the heaviest winds will be? Could they approach blizzard levels in some areas? I have been watching this too. Currently the ice threat will limit some areas--and there isn't a ton of mixing potential for extreme winds. That said--the gradient wind alone combined with strong CAA and subsequent downward horizontal momentum transport towards the surface low on the cold side may develop borderline blizzard conditions across the flat central plains states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So far I like what I have seen with everything tonight, the NAM in particular could be huge, the GGEM is fairly huge also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 The surface high is actually 1063 mb on the color map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I like the Dr. too, but the GFS has been the most consistent so far with track of this system. Not saying it'll be right, but if consistency counts for anything, it's been pretty good up to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The surface high is actually 1063 mb on the color map wow, imagine the winds if this low actually bombed to like 980 with a 1063 high on it's backside...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I like the Dr. too, but the GFS has been the most consistent so far with track of this system. Not saying it'll be right, but if consistency counts for anything, it's been pretty good up to now. If you count being consistently too far south for a few days then trending northward towards most other guidance as consistent, then you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If you count being consistently too far south for a few days then trending northward towards most other guidance as consistent, then you're right. The Euro had a Mexico snowstorm a few runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 EURO has also been consistent. Remember when it had 5 runs of the lake cutter idea, a few days ago? The reason why it went suppresed so much was because it didn't phase in the pacific. It had the suppressed idea for 2 runs, and then the last 3 runs (12z, 0z, 12z) the past 3 days went back to the cutter idea. Baro said how huge the phase was in the pacific, and that was the reason it was so dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 wow, imagine the winds if this low actually bombed to like 980 with a 1063 high on it's backside...lol It would be a true continental Category 6 weenie-cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 EURO has also been consistent. Remember when it had 5 runs of the lake cutter idea, a few days ago? The reason why it went suppresed so much was because it didn't phase in the pacific. It had the suppressed idea for 2 runs, and then the last 3 runs (12z, 0z, 12z) the past 3 days went back to the cutter idea. Baro said how huge the phase was in the pacific, and that was the reason it was so dramatic. has the euro ever actually brought the low into the greatlakes, ie n. of OH or IN for instance? I'm trying to remember, but i thought it took it to central IN or OH then shunted it east. I can't keep track lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It would be a true continental Category 6 weenie-cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This will have to cut NNE to be a western lakes storm. which is a very possible solution..probably similiar to a 2006 track and SLP ..maybe not as deep. but now the models want a weaker track to the NE and ENE.. but if a storm is stronger..it will dig more south..come out of SE Texas/LA and come NNE into AR/TN/KY maybe end up in SE Indiana? maybe a bit west of there like Indy itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 has the euro ever actually brought the low into the greatlakes, ie n. of OH or IN for instance? I'm trying to remember, but i thought it took it to central IN or OH then shunted it east. I can't keep track lol Don't think so. I think the EURO had the low to Chicago to like somewhere in Michigan or so for awhile. Then it went suppressed, now it's back to the low to near chicago idea. I remember two runs where it had 1.5-2 inch qpf here. Was a Madison special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 has the euro ever actually brought the low into the greatlakes, ie n. of OH or IN for instance? I'm trying to remember, but i thought it took it to central IN or OH then shunted it east. I can't keep track lol SE Michigan once maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 wow, imagine the winds if this low actually bombed to like 980 with a 1063 high on it's backside...lol GGEM might be a little bullish with the strength but most others are showing 1050 mb or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Don't think so. I think the EURO had the low to Chicago to like somewhere in Michigan or so for awhile. Then it went suppressed, now it's back to the low to near chicago idea. I remember two runs where it had 1.5-2 inch qpf here. Was a Madison special. The most northern solution the Euro ever had was through Saginaw, MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z ECMWF looks very similar to the 0z NAM with 500mb heights in the Pac NW through 30hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GEM Ensemble mean is like the GFS ensemble mean..STL to LAF special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Don't think so. I think the EURO had the low to Chicago to like somewhere in Michigan or so for awhile. Then it went suppressed, now it's back to the low to near chicago idea. I remember two runs where it had 1.5-2 inch qpf here. Was a Madison special. It did. That's why I think it has been more consistent with this system SO FAR. Considering the GFS' initial ideas of suppression look to be farther from the truth than the Euro's initial cutters, I'm inclined to believe the Euro a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 has the euro ever actually brought the low into the greatlakes, ie n. of OH or IN for instance? I'm trying to remember, but i thought it took it to central IN or OH then shunted it east. I can't keep track lol Yeah... I think the next run after that missed the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What is everyone's gut say the Euro does? I am going with the nam but a bit weaker and SE. but stronger then rest of them with STL in the ice and north snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hmm. The Euro is very fast with the southern stream through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What is everyone's gut say the Euro does? I think it will maintain relative consistency with the last 3 runs. Maybe a minor shift here or there, but ultimately little change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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