January 31-February 2 Major Winter Storm part 3

[Hoosier]

Because that piece that ejects into the plains might end up getting surpressed/flat with all that energy just lagging and hanging behind in Nevada.

I think suppression is becoming less of a threat. There have been positive trends in the height field/phasing in the last day or so.

[illinois]

I find it suspicious it ejects one big piece of energy but leaves alot of it behind. It may end up fizzling out.

Yikes, after three 50+ page threads that would be a real kick in the ba**s.

[weatherguru]

I think suppression is becoming less of a threat. There have been positive trends in the height field/phasing in the last day or so.

Yeah I noticed that. Hop it dont get out of hand. Worse case is it ends up tracking into NW IL.

[A-L-E-K]

Because that piece that ejects into the plains might end up getting surpressed/flat with all that energy just lagging and hanging behind in Nevada.

Since there's pretty good agreement on an original phase in the rockies, that should be good enough to initiate sufficient height rises in the east and less side storm generation. What the partial ejection would do is limit the amplification but there would still be a hell of storm.

[A-L-E-K]

I think suppression is becoming less of a threat. There have been positive trends in the height field/phasing in the last day or so.

Agree, i'd even say pretty damn unlikely based on the initial phasing of the pac and northern cylcones. There's going to be a storm in the middle of the country.

[wxdudemike]

HPC going with a south of the OH River track keeping all snow north of the river.

HPC FTW

[weatherguru]

Since there's pretty good agreement on an original phase in the rockies, that should be good enough to initiate sufficient height rises in the east and less side storm generation. What the partial ejection would do is limit the amplification but there would still be a hell of storm.

So what I been observing in the last 36hrs is tha models seem to amplify this system and looks like its about to explode up the eastern Lakes/Ohio Valley. It could go neg tilted in future runs and leave a strong heavy band of deformation snows from KS to northern IL.

[snowstormcanuck]

What did they look like?

Here's the mean H5 setup at 120

Notice, no closed off ul low over Vegas.

[A-L-E-K]

So what I been observing in the last 36hrs is tha models seem to amplify this system and looks like its about to explode up the eastern Lakes/Ohio Valley. It could go neg tilted in future runs and leave a strong heavy band of deformation snows from KS to northern IL.

What we've seen is agreement on intial phasing of the northern and pacific cyclones where as previous GFS runs shunted the northern vort east and surpressed the pac storm. The concensus now is for a phased vort to dive into the southwest and that's where the real major questions come out. When, where and how much of that piece ejects will dictate heights further east and drive storm development. It's worth noting again that resolving lee side cyclogensis from vorts emerging from the southwest mountains is somewhat of a model trouble spot.

[A-L-E-K]

The worm has turned for you. Yesterday it was supression, supression and more supression lol.

It could still end up too suppressed for mby, what i meant was real suppression as in deep south, Texas or Mexico probably isn’t happening. In other words it won't be storm cancel for the region as a hole. And yess, i still lean towards the southern envelope of guidance at this point, largely for reasons outlined by Baro yesterday and Organizing Low today.

[weatherguru]

Think DVN/LOT/GRR/DTX will hit hard with afternoon package.12z GFS might be in stages of developing nice TROWEL.

[A-L-E-K]

So when do you think will see a consensus here?

I think we have at least a couple days or more before we get a better picture on how they’ll want to handle the southwest ejection and then another couple days to converge on storm development and probable track, so no time soon.

Think DVN/LOT/GRR/DTX will hit hard with afternoon package.12z GFS might be in stages of developing nice TROWEL.

they’ll mention the players, the modeling and maybe say which way they’re leaning, probably taking the HPCs lead as they have before with this event.

[weatherguru]

All models show a nice healthy 500mb energy in southwest Sunday. That pretty exciting.

[baroclinic_instability]

What we've seen is agreement on intial phasing of the northern and pacific cyclones where as previous GFS runs shunted the northern vort east and surpressed the pac storm. The concensus now is for a phased vort to dive into the southwest and that's where the real major questions come out. When, where and how much of that piece ejects will dictate heights further east and drive storm development. It's worth noting again that resolving lee side cyclogensis from vorts emerging from the southwest mountains is somewhat of a model trouble spot.

You have become a non-met weather expert with your time on the weather forums.

[Srain]

HPC requesting a recon flight, hopefully in time for 0z Sunday run, per HPC.

Another mission is tasked for Monday as well.

[weatherguru]

You have become a non-met weather expert with your time on the weather forums.

Or prehaps a storm ends up like Baro avatar.

[baroclinic_instability]

Or prehaps a storm ends up like Baro avatar.

A different beast that storm but this one is actually bigger and has more GOM moisture feed.

[buckeye]

euro was interesting. I saw that 1055 pressing in from the northern plains and the trough splittin and thought uh oh...suppression. Low and behold it manages to send a powerhouse 1005 low from the southern plains right into that. Hmmm, seems odd. Comfort comes with the fact that the euro was consistently too warm and north with the storm earlier in the week.

more sushi for lunch for me today again!

[A-L-E-K]

Early on (probably it's only useful range) the 18z NAM looking robust with the interaction up in the Pac NW. Probably won't differ much in that regard as we're coming into some agreement with that. Will be interesting to see how much it will prepare to lose at the casino on its way through the desert.

can't say as i all too much care for that vort junk in texas early on, kinda wish that would get the hell out.

[pondo1000]

euro was interesting. I saw that 1055 pressing in from the northern plains and the trough splittin and thought uh oh...suppression. Low and behold it manages to send a powerhouse 1005 low from the southern plains right into that. Hmmm, seems odd. Comfort comes with the fact that the euro was consistently to warm and north with the storm earlier in the week.

more sushi for lunch for me today again!

I hope so buck, but pattern a bit different, no? We are in postive AO/NAO right now, right?

[Hoosier]

euro was interesting. I saw that 1055 pressing in from the northern plains and the trough splittin and thought uh oh...suppression. Low and behold it manages to send a powerhouse 1005 low from the southern plains right into that. Hmmm, seems odd. Comfort comes with the fact that the euro was consistently too warm and north with the storm earlier in the week.

more sushi for lunch for me today again!

Maybe a met can help but I didn't see anything weird about where it was taking the surface low. The H5 pattern looks kind of weird by day 5 but that's a separate issue.

[A-L-E-K]

18z similar to 12z, a little more robust with the early phase

[River Card]

If and when should the storm consolidate in the SW are we looking for it to spit out in chunks or in one massive storm. I am liking the GFS handling of the storm so far, and it sure looks like places from STL to PDH might get hammered big time should the storm evolve. As much as this winter has been a little bit of a let down for me in Chicago, as a former STL resident, and with family back there, all the years of heartbreak and anger that i went through there has me at least smiling with the conolation prize, glad to see them getting a good snowy winter. If they get a healthy storm next week, they could surpass ORD for snow tallies this year. Who would have thunk that..

Oh good news, was peeping at the long term weekly euro and by week 2 it shows what might be the beginning of a SE ridge forming...and with no blocking at all to be had this might be the period that us around here might get a cement type storm. Looks kinda warm the 3rd and 4th weeks of Feb though...

[buckeye]

I hope so buck, but pattern a bit different, no? We are in postive AO/NAO right now, right?

i think the nao was on its way positive if not neutral. the ao was positive.

I would think if the trough does split and sends a piece rather then the whole anchilada, itsgonna have to fight that arctic high pressing in....(which will continue to press and build southeast as long as that vortex is spinning over eastern canada). If that's the case you end up with a weaker low trying to attack a stronger high. (actually what the euro is showing), i just think the euro is giving too much credit to the weaker system and its ability to go due north and drive 850 warmth to n. ohio and n. indiana. The euro has already shown that error on the last storm.

I still think it's one or the other...either a full blown phase and chicago special or juicy, albeit weaker system riding somewhere along the southern OV.

[snowstormcanuck]

Early on (probably it's only useful range) the 18z NAM looking robust with the interaction up in the Pac NW. Probably won't differ much in that regard as we're coming into some agreement with that. Will be interesting to see how much it will prepare to lose at the casino on its way through the desert.

can't say as i all too much care for that vort junk in texas early on, kinda wish that would get the hell out.

Agree with all of this. For those of us on the northern flank of this storm, it'd be nice if that s/w over TX wasn't there knocking down the height fields. We can work around it, but it's not ideal.

[TimChgo9]

As usual, I feel like I am behind, or missing something, or maybe need to spend more time looking at the different model runs. Took a look at the GFS... noted that the 12z run keeps the precip south of the NE IL area (by a hair, mind you) Unless, it is yesterdays 12z I am looking at.

Images are for 114 and 120 hours

I also ran an 18z run of the GFS, and I suspect that it might be yesterdays, judging from the storm track (almost becomes a coastal)

So, color me confused. I am reading that NE IL and perhaps S WI are in the game, and then these maps show the precip just a hair to the south. I was expecting to see a large are of precip covering a good chunk of the region, include NE IL, but this map right now says "no!"

[buckeye]

Agree with all of this. For those of us on the northern flank of this storm, it'd be nice if that s/w over TX wasn't there knocking down the height fields. We can work around it, but it's not ideal.

its amazing but it seems every potential has had a spoiler either out in front or, like the last storm, on it's tail....f/\cking with the ability to create ridging

[Chicago Storm]

So, color me confused. I am reading that NE IL and perhaps S WI are in the game, and then these maps show the precip just a hair to the south. I was expecting to see a large are of precip covering a good chunk of the region, include NE IL, but this map right now says "no!"

Well, that's because you're looking at only one model.

[snowstormcanuck]

As usual, I feel like I am behind, or missing something, or maybe need to spend more time looking at the different model runs. Took a look at the GFS... noted that the 12z run keeps the precip south of the NE IL area (by a hair, mind you) Unless, it is yesterdays 12z I am looking at.

Images are for 114 and 120 hours

I also ran an 18z run of the GFS, and I suspect that it might be yesterdays, judging from the storm track (almost becomes a coastal)

So, color me confused. I am reading that NE IL and perhaps S WI are in the game, and then these maps show the precip just a hair to the south. I was expecting to see a large are of precip covering a good chunk of the region, include NE IL, but this map right now says "no!"

18z GFS doesn't come out until 3.30 your time, so that was definitely an old run.

EURO looks great for N IL/S WI. Other models are close with room for improvement. You're definitely in the game.

[wisconsinwx]

As usual, I feel like I am behind, or missing something, or maybe need to spend more time looking at the different model runs. Took a look at the GFS... noted that the 12z run keeps the precip south of the NE IL area (by a hair, mind you) Unless, it is yesterdays 12z I am looking at.

Images are for 114 and 120 hours

I also ran an 18z run of the GFS, and I suspect that it might be yesterdays, judging from the storm track (almost becomes a coastal)

So, color me confused. I am reading that NE IL and perhaps S WI are in the game, and then these maps show the precip just a hair to the south. I was expecting to see a large are of precip covering a good chunk of the region, include NE IL, but this map right now says "no!"

I've been a bit upset about that myself, but I think the rapid eastward progression of most of the solutions keep the heaviest snow just to our south with all but the Euro. That said, the Forecast Discussion for this afternoon for MKE said if the system doesn't shift further north, the factors are favorable for lake effect along the western shores of Lake Michigan. Sounds overall like a win-win, should that pan out. Either we get decent lake effect or a strong storm.