The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WOW. THAT IS EPIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 very slightly if at all. QPF fields have. No doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Initially the GGEM is more SE with the low, but it ends up NW of the 12Z and more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 it was actually colder here in central OH at 12z even though the low track was much closer to us. I wouldn't trust temps on it. Never bet against the Ohio Valley warm tongue of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah, GGEM was more a "runner" like storm. i think models are sniffing out that pushing baro zone. I'm not seeing any of the models strengthening the low, only the cold air and high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 We got zilch on the GEM at 12z. This run looks like about 10-15mm through 0z Thu with some more to come. Yeah I didn't like that 12z GEM from this afternoon. Next up let's see what the Euro brings. Hopefully looks like the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Never bet against the Ohio Valley warm tongue of death. its a given.... i assume its there until proven gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Now the 00z GGEM verbatim is probably a foot and a half of all snow for Detroit. Half of it comes from WAA/front thumping snows and the other half comes from trowal/deformation snows. If only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Now the 00z GGEM verbatim is probably a foot and a half of all snow for Detroit. If only... deformation band does look nice. Seems like we aren;t getting any closer to this event and it just keeps getting delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z ggem 850 96-108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Strangely, the 12z GEM had a strong defo zone across MO and IL Wednesday morning, but on the 00z the defo zone has vanished. yeah that's very strange, not exactly sure what causes that this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 deformation band does look nice. Seems like we aren;t getting any closer to this event and it just keeps getting delayed. Don't think that's correct. Still a Tuesday-Wednesday event for you guys in SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Now the 00z GGEM verbatim is probably a foot and a half of all snow for Detroit. Half of it comes from WAA/front thumping snows and the other half comes from trowal/deformation snows. If only... Euro agreed earlier today.. Nice partner to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Any news of the UKMET beyond 72? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Strangely, the 12z GEM had a strong defo zone across MO and IL Wednesday morning, but on the 00z the defo zone has vanished. It looks like the GEM sends out several smaller waves out of the long wave trough with this run instead of one or two big waves. It would be more of a prolonged moderate type snow event, but in the end the amounts still look very impressive. Definitely a difference when compared to the 12z version, but in the grand scheme of things it's fairly similar in the end results for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z ggem 850 96-108 pretty darn good track for here at 850mb, we stay at about -6 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM absolutly kills all of N. Ohio and most of SE Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Any news of the UKMET beyond 72? Not yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM looks very sleety/icy here. Precip type plots even try to change to plain rain for a time but I don't buy it if the low takes that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not yet... pretty big diff from ggem at 72 hr. Trough looks much more pos. tilted. I'm guessing the ukie is southeast or a bit more progressive then the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 At about what time does the 00z ukmet model come out? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 At about what time does the 00z ukmet model come out? Thanks Should be any minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z Ukie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 uk western TN to Piitt very DEC '04 looking track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 uk western TN to Piitt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 pretty big diff from ggem at 72 hr. Trough looks much more pos. tilted. I'm guessing the ukie is southeast or a bit more progressive then the ggem Looks like a carbon copy of the 12z. Maybe a touch weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Reading all of this and looking at the models and maps, it's hard not to get excited for what could amount to a huge event... However, my gut is telling me to stay calm until the energy is better sampled. I'm not saying anything bad is going to happen, I think some changes might be upcoming, but based on the consistency of the models so far, I think the changes could be minimal. The only thing I am hoping for is for the better qpf to come farther north into N IL and S WI. Like Justin said, this is going to be a 10-20 year storm for someone. This is exciting... I haven't had a storm like this to track since last winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 FWIW...HPC going with a NAM/ECMWF blend, with a non-GFS solution at least at first... http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like a carbon copy of the 12z. Maybe a touch weaker? it's a touch east and weaker like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GUYS and Gals if your here. a very large area is going to get hammered with this system. the nam is strongest and west, but it's also bleeding cold south and would rail a large area with a huge ice storm and snow. the gfs nails a large area with 8+ the gfs ensemble mean is absurd. the gem is absurd a huge ice and snow storm. well the ukmet is the same, YES the Nogaps which is always DRY! and it's a major ice and snow event as well. game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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