cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Really pleased to see just a few subtle changes with the new 00z guidance so far. The GFS remains very consistent, with just some minor tweaks. Since this is a full-on SW flow system, I'm leaning more heavily towards a further NW solution in general. WAA looks to kick in for quite some time before the main energy kicks out. We all know how WAA can be underdone with these types of setups. If the strength of the high/cold conveyor is just slightly underdone, then the WAA will easily nudge north in time. Obviously it's all just speculation at this point. All in all I really like where we sit here in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know how you feel about the snow... here's a fun fact... we have not had an official snowfall of 10" or more since 1999. We are certainly due. That is amazing what a little latitude can do for big snow potential. I was unaware it had been that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know how you feel about the snow... here's a fun fact... we have not had an official snowfall of 10" or more since 1999. We are certainly due. Yeah that just seems impossible and I surely haven't forgot of all the letdowns you've had since I've known you on the board.. Hopefully this will be the one. I think you have to be right on or near the top of the most due list. If only momma nature cared about that list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM out to 60. Maybe a smidge east with the trough axis compared to the 12z, but it's a fairly minor change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know how you feel about the snow... here's a fun fact... we have not had an official snowfall of 10" or more since 1999. We are certainly due. I hear ya man. It seems like we have a tendency to do better with clipper type systems than with these ultra-dynamic SW flow storms. Our luck's bound to change at some point though. Past seasonal snowfall luck or not, everyone on this board wants to cash in with this puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I hear ya man. It seems like we have a tendency to do better with clipper type systems than with these ultra-dynamic SW flow storms. Our luck's bound to change at some point though. Past seasonal snowfall luck or not, everyone on this board wants to cash in with this puppy. The only cashing in I need is to watch the atmosphere run its course. It will be a beautiful thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM is coming in hot and heavy. Oh by the way, 1061mb high in Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM out to 60. Maybe a smidge east with the trough axis compared to the 12z, but it's a fairly minor change. The height field looks a little more NAMish rather than GFS imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM is coming in hot and heavy. Oh by the way, 1061mb high in Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The height field looks a little more NAMish rather than GFS imo. Everything looks more consolidated than with the GFS. I don't even see a distinct southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM is coming in hot and heavy. Oh by the way, 1061mb high in Montana. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looking much "better" for a major ice to snow event for Norman on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM also more aggressive with the overrunning precip in the WAA regime ahead of the main storm. Similar to the NAM and unlike the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GEM looks east at 96, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GEFS Mean continues to shift NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 00Z GEFS QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GEFS Mean continues to shift NW... Yup. Moved up three shades of green in the last three runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Eh, 00z GGEM doesn't look terribly different from the 12z run, just a bit weaker. Edit: Scratch that. If the 120hr map is correct, it cut NNE towards Cleveland/Erie. Still pretty weak however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GEM weaker and farther South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looking much "better" for a major ice to snow event for Norman on the 0z GFS. Agreed! Liking the tighter baroclinic zone and faster progression of the arctic front. Looks like I-35 is the dividing line (as it stands now) between a good winter storm to the west, and a major winter storm to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ORD-DET is nailed on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM further NW with QPF field than at 12z. Sfc low gets to ERI by 120. Looks like a 24mm (0.96") bullseye over TOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM blasts the warm air north. Looks like about 2" of qpf for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM further NW with QPF field than at 12z. Sfc low gets to ERI by 120. Looks like a 24mm (0.96") bullseye over TOL. Do we do good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GEM weaker and farther South i'd call it east vs south...lol. southern IN at 12z to central KY at 00z.....i know, splitt'n hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Do we do good? We got zilch on the GEM at 12z. This run looks like about 10-15mm through 0z Thu with some more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Gem is to warm... but what the heck? looks like a mess....super warm and suppressed? looks more like a major ice storm...screw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Strangely, the 12z GEM had a strong defo zone across MO and IL Wednesday morning, but on the 00z the defo zone has vanished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GEFS Mean continues to shift NW... very slightly if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Gem is to warm... but what the heck? looks like a mess....super warm and suppressed? looks more like a major ice storm...screw that. it was actually colder here in central OH at 12z even though the low track was much closer to us. I wouldn't trust temps on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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