patrick7032 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If we get the stronger arctic plunge into the Plains, I wonder if we will start out with a farther south position/track but maybe not continue like that downstream. IOW more of a hook. As long is that plunge is more southerly (in terms of track of the high) than pure southeasterly that is a possibility....I just hope it doesn't plunge southeasterly so fast that the system gets suppressed to the SE of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 SLP in the exact location the 18z had it by 102hrs. Yep, looking fairly close to the 18z run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yep, looking fairly close to the 18z run so far. Besides a few wobbles and the usual QPF differences, it ends up fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well, no huge NW shift with this run. Comparing how the UKIE and the GFS look at 72 though I'd guess the Ukie is going to be at least a little NW of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well, no huge NW shift with this run. Comparing how the UKIE and the GFS look at 72 though I'd guess the Ukie is going to be at least a little NW of the GFS. UKIE's bias.. "Seems better than GFS with forecast of phasing of systems in northern and southern branch of jet" "When GFS is showing phasing of systems beyond 84 hours, check UKMET to see if solution is consistent" http://www.hpc.ncep..../biastext.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well, no huge NW shift with this run. Comparing how the UKIE and the GFS look at 72 though I'd guess the Ukie is going to be at least a little NW of the GFS. Ends up slightly better than the 12Z, slightly worse than 18Z (QPF wise)...track is pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUWeatherFan Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 850mb temps are colder in OK than the 12z run...could mean all the difference for ptype. I'll have to check it out more after the run is done. Please Do! Most of the moisture appears to be drawn towards Eastern Oklahoma, but the dynamics still look supportive for widespread precipitation throughout Oklahoma. Tulsa area totals look relatively high compared to the central and western portion of Oklahoma. Precipitation type will be crucial with this much moisture possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS gives me 12-15 inches verbatim if its all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks to me like it also tried to do something w/ the energy hanging back in the SW but that gets squashed by the 1036mb high over TX/OK @ 123 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So much potential.. Hate to see this just be a run of the mill high end GL/OV storm. GFS isn't budging for nothing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So much potential.. Hate to see this just be a run of the mill GL/OV storm. GFS isn't budging for nothing yet. The GFS wouldn't be run of the mill with a wide area of 8-12 inches or more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Here is the fifth run in a row that shows Major/Crippling Ice Storm for the Cincinnati area. I would like this to go a tick south by lets say 50 miles to put us in snow. Data will be in shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yuck. Most of the posters here would get 6-8+ and WI will be cold and dry. Onto the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So much potential.. Hate to see this just be a run of the mill GL/OV storm. GFS isn't budging for nothing yet. Bow this storm is still what 90ish hours out still. To much time for something to change. These things can change as the storm is ongoing. It was a midwest/western great lakes winter the last few years if we get missed South its alright, gotta spread the wealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 And yeah GFS is pretty similar no huge hiccups from previous runs. Nothing of huge substance that I can see so far when trying to analyze everything out and see if it makes good meteorological sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 one image says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GFS wouldn't be run of the mill with a wide area of 8-12 inches or more! Yeah, I added the high end to late.. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 LOL storm is TOTALLY different in the eastern lake completely different orientation of PV which tries to get involved completely different angle of approach and exit needless to say, no idea whats gonna happen once it gets up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 So much potential.. Hate to see this just be a run of the mill high end GL/OV storm. GFS isn't budging for nothing yet. Like baro suggested, it might not be able to capture the cyclogenesis potential with this event. I'm really curious to see what future runs of the NAM and especially higher res models will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS solution won't cut it for the Omaha to Chicago corridor. A more northerly extreme(last two Euro runs, probably latest NAM extrapolated) will be needed to get deep moisture up this far north. If the NAM and Euro start backing off it'll be a big downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Bow this storm is still what 90ish hours out still. To much time for something to change. These things can change as the storm is ongoing. It was a midwest/western great lakes winter the last few years if we get missed South its alright, gotta spread the wealth. Doesnt the GFS usually has a SE bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yuck. Most of the posters here would get 6-8+ and WI will be cold and dry. Onto the GEM. And I would have all rain with maybe a little bit of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 one image says it all. That stiff/cold NE wind could prove to be sneaky for folks who are basically riding the mixing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yuck. Most of the posters here would get 6-8+ and WI will be cold and dry. Onto the GEM. You know, it's just hard for me to trust the GFS, as this is the 2nd major Great Lakes/Ohio Valley potential storm this year, and in the first, the Euro was largely consistent the whole way, while the GFS was way south and east most of the way before correcting. ATM, this looks to be a very similar scenario. Therefore, let's forget about the GFS. We may not get a major storm here, but I don't think we'll be largely dry either. My early rational stab would be 3-7 inches in general across Southern Wisconsin. Obviously, not an expert opinion, but my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Like baro suggested, it might not be able to capture the cyclogenesis potential with this event. I'm really curious to see what future runs of the NAM and especially higher res models will show. Ya really curious to what the 12z NAM tomorrow shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 FWIW...The 0z nocraps came back north. 1004mb SLP centered near Louisville 102hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Doesnt the GFS usually has a SE bias? I guess that truly depends, the model was tweaked to give it better handling of features. I wouldn't say it has a huge SE bias. As has been pointed out... it was a bit of a SE outlier on a couple systems earlier in the Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Bow this storm is still what 90ish hours out still. To much time for something to change. These things can change as the storm is ongoing. It was a midwest/western great lakes winter the last few years if we get missed South its alright, gotta spread the wealth. I agree.. Lotta time... And if I have to wait to a 3rd winter for a storm much over 7" so be it. I knew climo would catch up after the epic 07/8 winter as it always does. Guess after catching up in the thread after the NAM came out and knowing the potential this thing has, the GFS just was kinna like waking up next to a beer goggles woman. its still a heck of a storm for a lot on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I agree.. Lotta time... And if I have to wait 3 winters for a storm much over 7" so be it. I knew climo would catch up after the epic 07/8 winter as it always does. Guess after catching up in the thread after the NAM came out and knowing the potential this thing has, the GFS just kinna was like waking up next to a beer goggles woman. its still a heck of a storm for a lot on the GFS. I know how you feel about the snow... here's a fun fact... we have not had an official snowfall of 10" or more since 1999. We are certainly due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I would figure around 00Z on sunday will know what the heck will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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