patrick7032 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Now that we are getting into the short range--there is one very clear thing--the low level baroclinic zone is going to be nearly epic scale type stuff. I haven't seen such a concentrated polar front that far S in a very long time. The moist low level theta-e field across the warm sector in the vicinity of the ejecting baroclinic wave will lend itself to rapid non-linear cyclogenesis development--and as a result--tiny changes in the strength of the Pacific cyclone, phasing, and eventual ejecting wave over the plains is something that should be monitored closely. This will have a significant impact on the development of the low level cyclone/track/intensity. It is the weather gods giving me an epic snowstorm before I move to Alaska....maybe I will get a good storm well NW of us in early March so while I am driving my vehicle to Seattle I can get a tor on the way since I will not get them up there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It is the weather gods giving me an epic snowstorm before I move to Alaska....maybe I will get a good storm well NW of us in early March so while I am driving my vehicle to Seattle I can get a tor on the way since I will not get them up there.... Haha true--maybe no tornadoes--but the Pacific will likely send you a few marine hurricane strength superbombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. AT THIS TIME...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER WEST INTO THE PLAINS...OR FURTHER EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. That is from the NWS in Wilmington OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Stop or explain reasoning. This run of the NAM we would be fine for snow I believe if extrapolated. He's back in the restricted group. I'm not out to embarrass people but I don't want people to think that it's a free for all. We're all excited at this mega storm opportunity, but please, a little reasoning helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Now that we are getting into the short range--there is one very clear thing--the low level baroclinic zone is going to be nearly epic scale type stuff. I haven't seen such a concentrated polar front that far S in a very long time. The moist low level theta-e field across the warm sector in the vicinity of the ejecting baroclinic wave will lend itself to rapid non-linear cyclogenesis development--and as a result--tiny changes in the strength of the Pacific cyclone, phasing, and eventual ejecting wave over the plains is something that should be monitored closely. This will have a significant impact on the development of the low level cyclone/track/intensity. Excellent point, and spot on. Little changes here and there, will have huge huge impacts downstream. Still a lot of wiggle room with this but it has been getting a little more clear today. But a long time to go between now and potential storm. That baroclinic zone is just damned impressive. Combined with all the dynamics there will likely be a tremendous amount of instability in the cold sector too thus thundersnow potential esp. in the South edge of the heavy snows which will potentially yield some unheard of totals in uncommon spots. Again folks, all potential at this point. But we won't need a lot of moisture in the cold sector to fluff up some impressive accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 pretty impressive...been a while since I've seen isotherm packing like this in my area Get your skates ready. Pretty awesome thermal gradient...and 2m temps running "chilly" on the south end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Excellent point, and spot on. Little changes here and there, will have huge huge impacts downstream. Still a lot of wiggle room with this but it has been getting a little more clear today. But a long time to go between now and potential storm. That baroclinic zone is just damned impressive. Combined with all the dynamics there will likely be a tremendous amount of instability in the cold sector too thus thundersnow potential esp. in the South edge of the heavy snows which will potentially yield some unheard of totals in uncommon spots. Again folks, all potential at this point. But we won't need a lot of moisture in the cold sector to fluff up some impressive accumulations. the NAM spits out .58 in my area between hrs 51-84 and tmps in the teens or below so could be a nice event even up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 that will happen, the more agressive the solution get with plains cyclogenisis, the warmer it will be east and colder west. yep, it had a big impact though down here. What was rain on earlier runs (Tulsa) is now freezing rain this run. 1/4 inch or so by 84 and more precip on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Get your skates ready. Pretty awesome thermal gradient...and 2m temps running "chilly" on the south end. NAM looks like it wants to mix some sleet in by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Excellent point, and spot on. Little changes here and there, will have huge huge impacts downstream. Still a lot of wiggle room with this but it has been getting a little more clear today. But a long time to go between now and potential storm. That baroclinic zone is just damned impressive. Combined with all the dynamics there will likely be a tremendous amount of instability in the cold sector too thus thundersnow potential esp. in the South edge of the heavy snows which will potentially yield some unheard of totals in uncommon spots. Again folks, all potential at this point. But we won't need a lot of moisture in the cold sector to fluff up some impressive accumulations. Totally agree--the potential is massive--and I am interested to see what the meso models suggest as we get closer since both warm sector convection and the moist baro zone will give the non-hydrostatic models an overall edge on deepening rate/intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS looks about the same as the 18z run so far through 36hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Is there any chance that thunderstorms on the southern edge of the storm could rob the storm of moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 00Z UKMET HR 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Is there any chance that thunderstorms on the southern edge of the storm could rob the storm of moisture? I know theres a chance that thunderstorms may come up into the cold air. (henry style) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Any thoughts on the UKIE/RGEM so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 00z NAM total WAA snows through 84hr. Ratios at this point are at least 15:1 on average. Chicago & Madison aren't available yet. Everyone else is sleet. Findlay, OH (0.33") Detroit, MI (0.17") Des Moines, IA (0.21") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Is there any chance that thunderstorms on the southern edge of the storm could rob the storm of moisture? I would have to look at the severe weather parameters but generally speaking with a system like this I would say yes that is a threat but with the strength of the baroclinic zone that may help offset that some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Any thoughts on the UKIE/RGEM so far? A bit early for me to even start looking at... I'll wanna see it when it gets out to three or four days and see whats going on atmospherically. Watch where the path of least resistance sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 00Z UKMET HR 72 Looking at the surface maps the uk is weaker with the HP, but the trade off is it's further east with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I would have to look at the severe weather parameters but generally speaking with a system like this I would say yes that is a threat but with the strength of the baroclinic zone that may help offset that some. Its always a risk, but generally you'd need a good MCS/MCC sitting E-W along the gulf/in the warm sector to sufficiently rob transport. Linear convection tends to rob less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 00z NAM WAA snows through 84hr (assuming 15:1 ratios). Madison is the winner so far. Chicago, IL (0.19") Madison, WI (0.45") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Its always a risk, but generally you'd need a good MCS/MCC sitting E-W along the gulf/in the warm sector to sufficiently rob transport. Linear convection tends to rob less. Yeah I wasn't worried about a lot being robbed but he was asking in general. With a system like this even if that occurred it would be fast moving so any moisture reduction would likely be 20% of potential but the "overly strong" baroclinic zone would compensate 10% so net result would be minimal say 10% or ~1.5 inch reduction. That's my guess if it occured but what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Through 84hrs, the GFS is coming a hair south of the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 If we get the stronger arctic plunge into the Plains, I wonder if we will start out with a farther south position/track but maybe not continue like that downstream. IOW more of a hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ukie didnt look to me as amped up as the NAM neither is the GFS so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah I wasn't worried about a lot being robbed but he was asking in general. With a system like this even if that occurred it would be fast moving so any moisture reduction would likely be 20% of potential but the "overly strong" baroclinic zone would compensate 10% so net result would be minimal say 10% or ~1.5 inch reduction. That's my guess if it occured but what do you think? That is a good and reasonable reduction due to storms. I think dynamics will truly offset any rubbing of moisture. I think it'll be an excellent snow producer quite honestly. My only true concern with this is a phase further West than what is depicted and we see a further N or W solution. That high in Canada holds a lot of cards in where the storm and upper air features go. I'd probably still give a blend with 60% GFS and 40% Euro right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Through 84hrs, the GFS is coming a hair south of the 18z. SLP in the exact location the 18z had it by 102hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is a MAJOR snow storm for the STL metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 850mb temps are colder in OK than the 12z run...could mean all the difference for ptype. I'll have to check it out more after the run is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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