Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 does the precip ride the baroclnic zone or does the low follow it? or maybe a dumb question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 pretty impressive...been a while since I've seen isotherm packing like this in my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hey my apolytic bombgensis Chicago panhandle hooker (however you spell it) from late in Dec in Chicago might materalize! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well a one day trend is certainly been a huge jump not really a trend. There are a lot of players on the map here and everything will have to work perfectly, but this looks like a set up in the cold sector for a classic, historical snow storm....and a classic historical ice storm. Certainly looks like Kansas City, Quincy, Chicago, Detroit could be golden for some massive snows...but because of the WAA snows ahead of the main show that will cause wide, wide areas further North to have some impressive totals as well. With over an inch of ice just South of this area which will cause massive problems. Also most of our storms this year have been NW flow events, this one is not. We have a very tight baroclinic zone setting up from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes... thus a lot of potential to tap there and as such a track favoring more of a SW-NE or WSW-ENE track looking more likely. One concern I had last night was this thing phasing in such a spot that a lot of folks South and East of Iowa and Missouri potentially having mixing issues but I like we have a nice strong Arctic high up on the US Canadian border to funnel in cold air and dynamics on this type of a system will sometimes help out tremendously. I really have a feeling this will be a once in a 10-20 year storm for a good chunk of the region... specifically where that will be is still a question mark. If I lived in a zone that showed my 850's running -1 to -8 or so I might still be concerned the front end mid level warming could be under done and thus what looks like snow could end up sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's a truley intense run in terms of potential. We throw around epic storm comparisons a lot, but to end up on the right side of something like this really will be one for the ages. This one is going to break some hearts along the way no doubt. The potential of long duration WAA snows followed by an intense low with gulf connection riding a tight baro zone is so tantilizing. Yeah, I think there's real historic potential and I don't use that term lightly. But it's still just potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My "gut" says something like a Shreveport, LA to Cinci to Erie line....either there or a SE OK to Evansville to Toledo line. Lukily there is a huge cold air deposit moving south which will help push this further south then it may have been with marginal cold. I have seen this referenced in many places.. they said as the system deepens and moves east the cold air will push it south some. you can see on the NAM cold air at all levels crashing south between 72-84 hours...hell just look at 900mb to the surface...by 84 hours, we are almost at sleet in STL.... somewhere might get 6+ inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Weatherguru, please stop. This is still 4 days+ out. No need to get have that strong of a wording right now. Potential? Yeah. But that is all it is right now. Potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 pretty impressive...been a while since I've seen isotherm packing like this in my area I've heard that tight thermal environments like that are breeding grounds for slantwise elevated convection (CSI). Maybe one of the mets could explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My "gut" says something like a Shreveport, LA to Cinci to Erie line....either there or a SE OK to Evansville to Toledo line. Do you think if a major phase happens that this is the furthest west it could go with the high to the NW and the PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 TS12, where do you think this would go? I was thinking somewhere around E. Indiana or so. looping the 850mb maps from 72-84hr, the baroclinic zone stays about in the same spot from northern MO on east, would think the low would run northeast along that before turning a bit more east, tough to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well a one day trend is certainly been a huge jump not really a trend. There are a lot of players on the map here and everything will have to work perfectly, but this looks like a set up in the cold sector for a classic, historical snow storm....and a classic historical ice storm. Certainly looks like Kansas City, Quincy, Chicago, Detroit could be golden for some massive snows...but because of the WAA snows ahead of the main show that will cause wide, wide areas further North to have some impressive totals as well. With over an inch of ice just South of this area which will cause massive problems. Also most of our storms this year have been NW flow events, this one is not. We have a very tight baroclinic zone setting up from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes... thus a lot of potential to tap there and as such a track favoring more of a SW-NE or WSW-ENE track looking more likely. One concern I had last night was this thing phasing in such a spot that a lot of folks South and East of Iowa and Missouri potentially having mixing issues but I like we have a nice strong Arctic high up on the US Canadian border to funnel in cold air and dynamics on this type of a system will sometimes help out tremendously. I really have a feeling this will be a once in a 10-20 year storm for a good chunk of the region... specifically where that will be is still a question mark. If I lived in a zone that showed my 850's running -1 to -8 or so I might still be concerned the front end mid level warming could be under done and thus what looks like snow could end up sleet. Nice write up as always.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looking at 500mb vort I am worried this might end up furthur NW. Stop or explain reasoning. This run of the NAM we would be fine for snow I believe if extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 nice write up Justin gonna be a fun few days and lost sleep Cant wait to see the Storm Vista WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well a one day trend is certainly been a huge jump not really a trend. There are a lot of players on the map here and everything will have to work perfectly, but this looks like a set up in the cold sector for a classic, historical snow storm....and a classic historical ice storm. Certainly looks like Kansas City, Quincy, Chicago, Detroit could be golden for some massive snows...but because of the WAA snows ahead of the main show that will cause wide, wide areas further North to have some impressive totals as well. With over an inch of ice just South of this area which will cause massive problems. Also most of our storms this year have been NW flow events, this one is not. We have a very tight baroclinic zone setting up from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes... thus a lot of potential to tap there and as such a track favoring more of a SW-NE or WSW-ENE track looking more likely. One concern I had last night was this thing phasing in such a spot that a lot of folks South and East of Iowa and Missouri potentially having mixing issues but I like we have a nice strong Arctic high up on the US Canadian border to funnel in cold air and dynamics on this type of a system will sometimes help out tremendously. I really have a feeling this will be a once in a 10-20 year storm for a good chunk of the region... specifically where that will be is still a question mark. If I lived in a zone that showed my 850's running -1 to -8 or so I might still be concerned the front end mid level warming could be under done and thus what looks like snow could end up sleet. ok, no sleep tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lukily there is a huge cold air deposit moving south which will help push this further south then it may have been with marginal cold. I have seen this referenced in many places.. they said as the system deepens and moves east the cold air will push it south some. you can see on the NAM cold air at all levels crashing south between 72-84 hours...hell just look at 900mb to the surface...by 84 hours, we are almost at sleet in STL.... somewhere might get 6+ inches of sleet. I agree that is why I kind of think the southern track that I mentioned is more likely especially with the strength of the incoming high behind it. If I had to pick one of the two I would go south say somewhere along the Ohio river would be more likely (similar to the southern track that I mentioned). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well a one day trend is certainly been a huge jump not really a trend. There are a lot of players on the map here and everything will have to work perfectly, but this looks like a set up in the cold sector for a classic, historical snow storm....and a classic historical ice storm. Certainly looks like Kansas City, Quincy, Chicago, Detroit could be golden for some massive snows...but because of the WAA snows ahead of the main show that will cause wide, wide areas further North to have some impressive totals as well. With over an inch of ice just South of this area which will cause massive problems. Also most of our storms this year have been NW flow events, this one is not. We have a very tight baroclinic zone setting up from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes... thus a lot of potential to tap there and as such a track favoring more of a SW-NE or WSW-ENE track looking more likely. One concern I had last night was this thing phasing in such a spot that a lot of folks South and East of Iowa and Missouri potentially having mixing issues but I like we have a nice strong Arctic high up on the US Canadian border to funnel in cold air and dynamics on this type of a system will sometimes help out tremendously. I really have a feeling this will be a once in a 10-20 year storm for a good chunk of the region... specifically where that will be is still a question mark. If I lived in a zone that showed my 850's running -1 to -8 or so I might still be concerned the front end mid level warming could be under done and thus what looks like snow could end up sleet. Great write-up! Thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Stop or explain reasoning. This run of the NAM we would be fine for snow I believe if extrapolated. It closes off on hour 84 at 500mb, so east of the longitude of Chicago he may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lukily there is a huge cold air deposit moving south which will help push this further south then it may have been with marginal cold. I have seen this referenced in many places.. they said as the system deepens and moves east the cold air will push it south some. you can see on the NAM cold air at all levels crashing south between 72-84 hours...hell just look at 900mb to the surface...by 84 hours, we are almost at sleet in STL.... somewhere might get 6+ inches of sleet. At 850 MB at least, it is tightening and sinking SE from 78-84. Overall, in Kansas and Oklahoma, the NAM was colder than the 18z. The flip side is that eastern MO is a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ok, no sleep the next 3 nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 according to nam cmh surface temps actually fall from 27.4 to 25.5 hr 72-84. looks iceeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 At 850 MB at least, it is tightening and sinking SE from 78-84. Overall, in Kansas and Oklahoma, the NAM was colder than the 18z. The flip side is that eastern MO is a bit warmer. that will happen, the more agressive the solution get with plains cyclogenisis, the warmer it will be east and colder west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 im not going to try and extrapolate the 84 NAM but it does look impressive for a lot of folks...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have got alittle more tingely after this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have got alittle more tingely after this run.. I dont think we could ask for any better setup. I just hope it doesnt use up all of its energy in the plains and lose its strength as it heads NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 im not going to try and extrapolate the 84 NAM but it does look impressive for a lot of folks...... We'll probably get a "guesstimate" of what the 00z NAM will do on the 06z DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It closes off on hour 84 at 500mb, so east of the longitude of Chicago he may be right. Were watching the wave coming out of NM into TX.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Now that we are getting into the short range--there is one very clear thing--the low level baroclinic zone is going to be nearly epic scale type stuff. I haven't seen such a concentrated polar front that far S in a very long time. The moist low level theta-e field across the warm sector in the vicinity of the ejecting baroclinic wave will lend itself to rapid non-linear cyclogenesis development--and as a result--tiny changes in the strength of the Pacific cyclone, phasing, and eventual ejecting wave over the plains is something that should be monitored closely. This will have a significant impact on the development of the low level cyclone/track/intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I dont think we could ask for any better setup. I just hope it doesnt use up all of its energy in the plains and lose its strength as it heads NE. I dont think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM seems a lot more ambitious with the overrunning ahead of the main storm. Don't recall QPF like that on any of the other models. the euro free maps seems to indicate that potential also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Now that we are getting into the short range--there is one very clear thing--the low level baroclinic zone is going to be nearly epic scale type stuff. I haven't seen such a concentrated polar front that far S in a very long time. The moist low level theta-e field across the warm sector in the vicinity of the ejecting baroclinic wave will lend itself to rapid non-linear cyclogenesis development--and as a result--tiny changes in the strength of the Pacific cyclone, phasing, and eventual ejecting wave over the plains is something that should be monitored closely. This will have a significant impact on the development of the low level cyclone/track/intensity. fun fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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