dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This thread is living proof that we need forum subsets like they have over in the NYC/PHILLY side of the board. Me thinks that this storm will be a major threat for much of the midwest/ohio valley, but its way to early to lock in on a more specific area. I would hope that we can stop focusing on IMBY as this makes the thread very hard to read. Made one before I even read this.. there is one for the OV now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 arw4 and rsn4 look amped to me, hard for me to compare to the euro since i only see the messy e-wall maps. yeah ure right ARW is well cranked you can tell we havent had a legit storm threat analyzing SREF 87 heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I agree with this and as I stated yesterday the energy that was diving SE off the "tail" of the Aleutians low which was heading for the Vancover low was completely missed yet was decently well defined and the jet was very much so. I haven't checked yet but if it did finally catch/get absorbed into the Vancover low making it stronger the models have just barely caught onto this in all likelihood so there are still plenty of things to watch for. I think what may happen is the system may be deeper dump more than currently forecast but it just depends how things play out obviously. :thumbsup:I am in weenie mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yeah ure right ARW is well cranked you can tell we havent had a legit storm threat analyzing SREF 87 heights true, i guess when we have the number of members showing that type of solution go from 1 to 8 we'll have something to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hey if anyone wants to aim me weatherguru25 go ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 [/b] :thumbsup:I am in weenie mode. Obvious post is obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know a good deal about S. Plains weather, but when it comes to "clippers" and OV weather I'm not too familiar. Would a slower/deeper/stronger/phased solution more than likely shift this baby mainly N of OK? Does the southern/northern route debate occur after this thing has done it's thing in OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like Paducah is going to have their handfuls. Their northern areas look like they are going to be dealing with a heavy ice/snowstorm potential. Then to their south, it's look like the ice/snow potential is going to have a sharp cutoff. I'm in one of their southernmost counties and it looks like were are one or 2 counties away from having heavy freezing rain. At this point, I think I want to have this bad boy move north unless there is a huge swing south otherwise I don't want another major ice-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z NAM running warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know a good deal about S. Plains weather, but when it comes to "clippers" and OV weather I'm not too familiar. Would a slower/deeper/stronger/phased solution more than likely shift this baby mainly N of OK? Does the southern/northern route debate occur after this thing has done it's thing in OK? It could shift it N of OK but what would more likely happen is a deeper system would still eject NE to the southeast of you....the stronger solution for you would allow more precip and at a heavier rate in the deformation zone especially as the baroclinic leaf structure develops. Also a stronger system would likely dump more warm air aloft into your region so with the developing trowal setup you may develop some CSI enhancing your chance for convective snow as the trowal would substantially decrease your static stability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Through 42hr on the NAM, the northern stream wave is about in the same spot as the 18z run with the pacific cyclone a tad east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What would be great is if we could get a storm taking a track similar to February 28-29,1984. I think both Buffalo and Ottawa got hit hard with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 h5 looks south, 850s warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z NAM running warm Looks a tad warmer at 54hr compared to the 18z run. tad lower pressures at 850mb in the central rockies into northeast CO and plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It could shift it N of OK but what would more likely happen is a deeper system would still eject NE to the southeast of you....the stronger solution for you would allow more precip and at a heavier rate in the deformation zone especially as the baroclinic leaf structure develops. Also a stronger system would likely dump more warm air aloft into your region so with the developing trowal setup you may develop some CSI enhancing your chance for convective snow as the trowal would substantially decrease your static stability. ...or ice 0_o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 southern stream a tad faster through 60hr and stronger low at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I wouldn't worry about warm air on this, the baroclinic zone will tighten, and if you look from 42 to 60hr the 0C line doesn't move at all, except in Kansas where it moves Southward, not Northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 southern stream a tad faster through 60hr and stronger low at 850mb. smells like something major cooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I wouldn't worry about warm air on this, the baroclinic zone will tighten, and if you look from 42 to 60hr the 0C line doesn't move at all, except in Kansas where it moves Southward, not Northward. we've got some wiggle room, but the plains cyclogensis hasn't even gotten going yet to really crank up the WAA machine, we might need all we can get. 0z NAM really sharpening the SW-NE baro zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z HR 72 has a 1004 or 1008 low in the TX/NM border. Near Clovis, New Mexico. 18z HR 78 had a 1012 low in NM it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 we've got some wiggle room, but the plains cyclogensis hasn't even gotten going yet to really crank up the WAA machine, we might need all we can get. Yes but unlike a normal plains storm there will be CAA driving in from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 continues to look stronger at 850mb at 66hr. heckuva baroclinic zone from the TX PH on northward into KS/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 there will be zero snow in STL from the nam unless it's on the backside. almost 5c 850s by 72 hours..give me a break. where is all that cold air the mets have been talking about..this is going to be a crippling ice storm if that is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z NAM running warm That is my biggest worry with this system. I keep watching, reading and looking, and so far, none of the models have shown much in the way of temp increases. I keep waiting for the run that is going to show either a warm shot at the surface, or the upper levels that can hurt the snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yes but unlike a normal plains storm there will be CAA driving in from the north. Like you mentioned too about the tightening boundary. This is what the 18z GEFS run was showing. Strong cold conveyor at 850, keeping that 0 C line pinned in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 where is all that cold air the mets have been talking about..this is going to be a crippling ice storm if that is the case. spilling down behind the developing low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 starting to cook at 72hr..1004mb sfc low along the NM/TX border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM breaking out serious WAA snows already. the juice is loose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 In OK, 850mb freezing line has made more progress south at HR72 on 0z as compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 starting to cook at 72hr..1004mb sfc low along the NM/TX border. 1005 L in c TX at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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