January 31-February 2 Major Winter Storm part 3

[Thundersnow12]

Geez that guy who did the MKX briefing almost put me to sleep, sounds kinda like the teacher is bueller's day off lol. And I agree with Alek, it is too early to do a briefing.

[Northernohio]

Trent we may finally actually get a synoptic snow event! It would be a miracle. Whats your snowpack right now btw 5-6 inches?

[Organizing Low]

just checked into the MA thread

the references to Buckeye are hillarious

its a depressing place though

i cant imagine being a snow weenie and living there, they got lucky last year, but what a depressing way to live your whole life, at least they can have lifelong memories of last season i suppose, im happy for them for that.....

but to see some snow, and then there it goes a day or 2 later. and a board like this would only seem to make you more miserable overall. i can understand why they wanted their own subforum, seeing all the posts from other regions would be very depressing.

i give them credit though, they must really love snow, a lot more than i do, thats for sure.

[Thundersnow12]

18z GFS

[SEMIweather]

When I left work a few hours ago, HPC was riding the GEFS for their forecast. Taking a look at that, as an example there are a few things of note.

Placement of the high pressure: North and west of the developing system (not north and east). This will limit the amount of dry air feeding into the warm advection wing precipitation, so the northern extent of precip won't be as sharp.

Ensemble spread: The ensembles have a fairly large spread to the north and west of the low track. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the op come northwest.

Standardized anomalies: At 850 both the U (east/west) and V (north/south) anomalies were impressive. The 18z GEFS had a -3 to -4 sigma U anomaly and a 3 to 4 sigma V anomaly. Assuming a bell curve distribution (not always meteorologically accurate, but close enough) 3 sigmas should encompass 99.7% of the outcomes. So these are significant anomalies. The positive V means a stronger south wind (think Gulf moisture transport), and the negative U is a stronger east wind (think cold conveyor, def band). So wherever this system goes it will have plenty of moisture to work with, and an impressive deformation band.

Thanks for posting this.

[A-L-E-K]

True--but this is only considering what the GFS data assimilation system is ingesting and the outcomes it develops out of that data.

Maybe i'm off base but with the way the Euro and NAM have looked, i don't see why they wouldn't be as if not more impressive.

[OceanStWx]

True--but this is only considering what the GFS data assimilation system is ingesting and the outcomes it develops out of that data.

Which is why this is only an example. The CMC ensembles are showing similar features, but the placement is different.

[buckeye]

just checked into the MA thread

the references to Buckeye are hillarious

its a depressing place though

i cant imagine being a snow weenie and living there, they got lucky last year, but what a depressing way to live your whole life, at least they can have lifelong memories of last season i suppose, im happy for them for that.....

but to see some snow, and then there it goes a day or 2 later. and a board like this would only seem to make you more miserable overall. i can understand why they wanted their own subforum, seeing all the posts from other regions would be very depressing.

i give them credit though, they must really love snow, a lot more than i do, thats for sure.

yea, what's up with that ? Like a whole region of stalkers

[Thundersnow12]

UIN to PIA and then over to between VPZ and LAF do it real big, in the words of Joakim Noah.

18z GFS

[Powerball]

[Trent]

Trent we may finally actually get a synoptic snow event! It would be a miracle. Whats your snowpack right now btw 5-6 inches?

I measured 6 inches this morning after the clipper. Would be nice to get a decent snowstorm on top of a 6-8" snowpack.

I think it's always interesting with these types of events and snow already on the ground. The new snow tends to really compact the old snow below so that a new 8 inches on top of an 8 inch snowpack turns into just 10-12" or so on the ground.

[baroclinic_instability]

Which is why this is only an example. The CMC ensembles are showing similar features, but the placement is different.

I wasn't disagreeing--just mentioning so others know it doesn't mean all possibilities (99.7) are only within the GEFS spread.

[OceanStWx]

I wasn't disagreeing--just mentioning so others know it doesn't mean all possibilities (99.7) are only within the GEFS spread.

I certainly wouldn't be riding the GFS at this point. It has known southeast and convective biases that are concerning for one, so I'm definitely hedging northwest right now.

[wxologist]

All central domain ranks.

At 96 hours: http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=096&flg=new

1) 2/22/1994

2) 2/13/2007

3) 2/15/1987

4) 3/7/1998

5) 3/1/1994

At 120 hours: http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new

1) 2/16/1993

2) 1/3/1996

3) 1/31/1982

4) 2/13/2007

5) 2/16/2003

IMO...Feb 2007 should be given more weight as it's in both the F096 and F120. It's a pretty good analog too.

[Thundersnow12]

I certainly wouldn't be riding the GFS at this point. It has known southeast and convective biases that are concerning for one, so I'm definitely hedging northwest right now.

Agreed, I can give 1/31/08 for an example when the GFS was the southeast most of the models and verified alittle to the northwest.

Think our areas are sitting pretty regarding a good snow right now.

[A-L-E-K]

I certainly wouldn't be riding the GFS at this point. It has known southeast and convective biases that are concerning for one, so I'm definitely hedging northwest right now.

[Stevo6899]

I certainly wouldn't be riding the GFS at this point. It has known southeast and convective biases that are concerning for one, so I'm definitely hedging northwest right now.

How far NW we talking?

[wxdudemike]

I certainly wouldn't be riding the GFS at this point. It has known southeast and convective biases that are concerning for one, so I'm definitely hedging northwest right now.

Seems like we've also seen a north bias on a lot of the models this year too...(ie: SE trend)

[SEMIweather]

Seems like we've also seen a north bias on a lot of the models this year too...(ie: SE trend)

I think it's safe to say it's a different pattern at this point though IMO.

[okie333]

I certainly wouldn't be riding the GFS at this point. It has known southeast and convective biases that are concerning for one, so I'm definitely hedging northwest right now.

...which were fixed in the recent update. There is now a slight (or maybe not so slight) warm and dry bias on the GFS.

[prinsburg_wx]

21Z SREF mean & members 500 hr 87

[MoeWx]

My namesake is doing this storm proud.

LOL too funny. I hate to admit it, but the Northernwest Shift is the direction I am leaning :/ (partly because I don't want the ice and the possibility of some severe weather LOL.) But the pattern is not the same it has been on the past couple storms, blocking has broke down, AO and NAO positive territory. I am thinking a hook is the answer, where is the question. imo anyways. If its like December this could be in Minnesota >.> just sayin.

[ILSNOW]

This thread is living proof that we need forum subsets like they have over in the NYC/PHILLY side of the board. Me thinks that this storm will be a major threat for much of the midwest/ohio valley, but its way to early to lock in on a more specific area. I would hope that we can stop focusing on IMBY as this makes the thread very hard to read.

[OceanStWx]

How far NW we talking?

Well that's the million dollar question.

Considering the wave of interest is still spinning over the Pacific, we could still see some significant model changes in the next couple of days.

Seems like we've also seen a north bias on a lot of the models this year too...(ie: SE trend)

The difference with this system, in my opinion is the orientation of the baroclinic zone. Much of the last month has been northwest flow events, where they end up hugging the snowpack line (which is pretty far south). With this event, all models are hinting at the brunt of the Arctic air crashing down the lee of the Rockies, pumping up temperatures over the Mississippi Valley, and creating a southwest to northeast baroclinic zone that we haven't really seen in a while. Obviously things can change to keep this system southeast (say a stronger Canadian high to the northeast of the developing low), but as things stand right now the baroclinicity is farther north.

[A-L-E-K]

21Z SREF mean & members 500 hr 87

looking pretty fierce to me, a couple with extrermely cranked heights

[weatherguru]

LOL too funny. I hate to admit it, but the Northernwest Shift is the direction I am leaning :/ (partly because I don't want the ice and the possibility of some severe weather LOL.) But the pattern is not the same it has been on the past couple storms, blocking has broke down, AO and NAO positive territory. I am thinking a hook is the answer, where is the question. imo anyways. If its like December this could be in Minnesota >.> just sayin.

Agreed which is what I was saying earlier. Climo would not favor a track to MN in late Jan.

[weatherguru]

This thread is living proof that we need forum subsets like they have over in the NYC/PHILLY side of the board. Me thinks that this storm will be a major threat for much of the midwest/ohio valley, but its way to early to lock in on a more specific area. I would hope that we can stop focusing on IMBY as this makes the thread very hard to read.

Yes and No. Next time we get a storm like this will be 2015.

[Organizing Low]

looking pretty fierce to me, a couple with extrermely cranked heights

i may have missed

but a quick look i dont see anything more cranked than the 12z euro......could be wrong! point me too if you see something

overall mean is close to the euro but not quite as amped. PV a bit more suppressive too.....a bit.

[A-L-E-K]

i may have missed

but a quick look i dont see anything more cranked than the 12z euro......could be wrong! point me too if you see something

overall mean is close to the euro but not quite as amped. PV a bit more suppressive too.....a bit.

arw4 and rsn4 look amped to me, hard for me to compare to the euro since i only see the messy e-wall maps.

[patrick7032]

Well that's the million dollar question.

Considering the wave of interest is still spinning over the Pacific, we could still see some significant model changes in the next couple of days.

The difference with this system, in my opinion is the orientation of the baroclinic zone. Much of the last month has been northwest flow events, where they end up hugging the snowpack line (which is pretty far south). With this event, all models are hinting at the brunt of the Arctic air crashing down the lee of the Rockies, pumping up temperatures over the Mississippi Valley, and creating a southwest to northeast baroclinic zone that we haven't really seen in a while. Obviously things can change to keep this system southeast (say a stronger Canadian high to the northeast of the developing low), but as things stand right now the baroclinicity is farther north.

I agree with this and as I stated yesterday the energy that was diving SE off the "tail" of the Aleutians low which was heading for the Vancover low was completely missed yet was decently well defined and the jet was very much so. I haven't checked yet but if it did finally catch/get absorbed into the Vancover low making it stronger the models have just barely caught onto this in all likelihood so there are still plenty of things to watch for. I think what may happen is the system may be deeper and dump more than currently forecast but it just depends how things play out obviously.