buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That looks like it's assuming ratios of 15:1 or better. brutal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Seasonal south trend FTW You can't quite call it a seasonal trend since the trend is for storm threats to fizzle out by day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol... you have to understand...since we are the southeastern most zone of our region, we are outnumbered severely by those rooting for nw or a gfs hold. I gotta do what i gotta do...and if it means pulling the nocraps out of my asss, i will it's all good. its a tough dilemma you are in stuck between the MW and the MA. at least i can fit in without causing too much of a scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 wow i wake up in the AM and its the first thing i think of......but your taking it to another level i usually get my coffee then check the 0z and 06z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 You can't quite call it a seasonal trend since the trend is for storm threats to fizzle out by day 3. On a scale of 1-10 with 10 being all out apocalypse, where are you right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 its a tough dilemma you are in stuck between the MW and the MA. at least i can fit in without causing too much of a scene. meh it's all good. ....although if that earl barker map verifies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ottawa your gain is our loss lol if this shifts any further northward will be on the warm side not necessarily the euro was snow for both locations and some ensemble members have shown that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That looks like it's assuming ratios of 15:1 or better. That what I thought looking at it, seems too high up by here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I wasn't trying to diss you guys in the OH area or anything. I just find it funny how the MW posters are rooting hard for a NW trend, while it's the opposite for you guys. Someone is gonna be dissapointed in the end though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That what I thought looking at it, seems too high up by here. 8-10 off .5+ isn't unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 On a scale of 1-10 with 10 being all out apocalypse, where are you right now? The sheer projected size and the southern extent of the ejecting wave will cover such a large area. It is pretty high (the rating) for this time period 4 days out. A solid 7, but that is mostly because a lot needs to be cleared up. Most widespread threat in a long time--definitely this winter. Track remains an issue--but this won't be fizzling out like other threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 8-10 off .5+ isn't unheard of. true. can't wait for this thread to get crazy in a few hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 true. can't wait for this thread to get crazy in a few hours lol Agree, just woke up from my pre-work nap, and saw the 18z GFS and ensembles all trending to the good. I have to admit I am definitely an 8 on the excitement scale for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 true. can't wait for this thread to get crazy in a few hours lol It's a Friday night, I'm likely looking at a few inches of snow at best...and I'll still be in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Oh hey, baroclinic zone. SREF also hinting at some big WAA snow amounts into SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Oh hey, baroclinic zone. SREF also hinting at some big WAA snow amounts into SD. My namesake is doing this storm proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ....This is off topic but if trying to kill time until the next model runs go to the off topic forum and you will see raw footage that you do not see every day from a Detroit police station shootout.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm out with the wife and am killing time while she shops for shoes. Anyway anyone check the analogs? CWIPS? Posted from my Incredible HTC Droid. All central domain ranks. At 96 hours: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=096&flg=new 1) 2/22/1994 2) 2/13/2007 3) 2/15/1987 4) 3/7/1998 5) 3/1/1994 At 120 hours: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new 1) 2/16/1993 2) 1/3/1996 3) 1/31/1982 4) 2/13/2007 5) 2/16/2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My namesake is doing this storm proud. yep lol fueling our fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 true. can't wait for this thread to get crazy in a few hours lol The Guru police is on stand by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Guru police is on stand by. then watch yourself and make sure to not throw out any "historic chicago snowstorm" or "perfect cutter track for chicago to get into the trowel" and BTW....its trowal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 then watch yourself and make sure to not throw out any "historic chicago snowstorm" or "perfect cutter track for chicago to get into the trowel" and BTW....its trowal.. I been a member for over a month now and only mentioned this crap a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 All central domain ranks. At 96 hours: http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=096&flg=new 1) 2/22/1994 2) 2/13/2007 3) 2/15/1987 4) 3/7/1998 5) 3/1/1994 At 120 hours: http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new 1) 2/16/1993 2) 1/3/1996 3) 1/31/1982 4) 2/13/2007 5) 2/16/2003 I'm liking the Feb 2007 analog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 When I left work a few hours ago, HPC was riding the GEFS for their forecast. Taking a look at that, as an example there are a few things of note. Placement of the high pressure: North and west of the developing system (not north and east). This will limit the amount of dry air feeding into the warm advection wing precipitation, so the northern extent of precip won't be as sharp. Ensemble spread: The ensembles have a fairly large spread to the north and west of the low track. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the op come northwest. Standardized anomalies: At 850 both the U (east/west) and V (north/south) anomalies were impressive. The 18z GEFS had a -3 to -4 sigma U anomaly and a 3 to 4 sigma V anomaly. Assuming a bell curve distribution (not always meteorologically accurate, but close enough) 3 sigmas should encompass 99.7% of the outcomes. So these are significant anomalies. The positive V means a stronger south wind (think Gulf moisture transport), and the negative U is a stronger east wind (think cold conveyor, def band). So wherever this system goes it will have plenty of moisture to work with, and an impressive deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I wasn't trying to diss you guys in the OH area or anything. I just find it funny how the MW posters are rooting hard for a NW trend, while it's the opposite for you guys. Someone is gonna be dissapointed in the end though. yup...nature of the beast. WTOD is always a real issue in these setups for ohio. I still haven't seen anything that makes me ready to jump off my idea that it trends either weaker and thus further south or blows up west of us. The fact that this is the first threat with a true arctic push coming down from the northern plains is what makes me leary of anything being able to crawl too far north unless it's really strong. Im leary of these depictions of a 1004+ low bullying north with the 850 0 line. The gfs takes a 1008 low and drives it north to 1004 into central OH. just seems crazy aggressive for the strength of the low and lack of ridging out ahead. but who knows for sure...def not me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Guru police is on stand by. :lmao: I want to see an epic battle between you and The Guru of Reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 When I left work a few hours ago, HPC was riding the GEFS for their forecast. Taking a look at that, as an example there are a few things of note. Placement of the high pressure: North and west of the developing system (not north and east). This will limit the amount of dry air feeding into the warm advection wing precipitation, so the northern extent of precip won't be as sharp. Ensemble spread: The ensembles have a fairly large spread to the north and west of the low track. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the op come northwest. Standardized anomalies: At 850 both the U (east/west) and V (north/south) anomalies were impressive. The 18z GEFS had a -3 to -4 sigma U anomaly and a 3 to 4 sigma V anomaly. Assuming a bell curve distribution (not always meteorologically accurate, but close enough) 3 sigmas should encompass 99.7% of the outcomes. So these are significant anomalies. The positive V means a stronger south wind (think Gulf moisture transport), and the negative U is a stronger east wind (think cold conveyor, def band). So wherever this system goes it will have plenty of moisture to work with, and an impressive deformation band. thanks for checking in, appreciate the thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 When I left work a few hours ago, HPC was riding the GEFS for their forecast. Taking a look at that, as an example there are a few things of note. Placement of the high pressure: North and west of the developing system (not north and east). This will limit the amount of dry air feeding into the warm advection wing precipitation, so the northern extent of precip won't be as sharp. Ensemble spread: The ensembles have a fairly large spread to the north and west of the low track. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the op come northwest. Standardized anomalies: At 850 both the U (east/west) and V (north/south) anomalies were impressive. The 18z GEFS had a -3 to -4 sigma U anomaly and a 3 to 4 sigma V anomaly. Assuming a bell curve distribution (not always meteorologically accurate, but close enough) 3 sigmas should encompass 99.7% of the outcomes. So these are significant anomalies. The positive V means a stronger south wind (think Gulf moisture transport), and the negative U is a stronger east wind (think cold conveyor, def band). So wherever this system goes it will have plenty of moisture to work with, and an impressive deformation band. True--but this is only considering what the GFS data assimilation system is ingesting and the outcomes it develops out of that data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 When I left work a few hours ago, HPC was riding the GEFS for their forecast. Taking a look at that, as an example there are a few things of note. Placement of the high pressure: North and west of the developing system (not north and east). This will limit the amount of dry air feeding into the warm advection wing precipitation, so the northern extent of precip won't be as sharp. Ensemble spread: The ensembles have a fairly large spread to the north and west of the low track. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the op come northwest. Standardized anomalies: At 850 both the U (east/west) and V (north/south) anomalies were impressive. The 18z GEFS had a -3 to -4 sigma U anomaly and a 3 to 4 sigma V anomaly. Assuming a bell curve distribution (not always meteorologically accurate, but close enough) 3 sigmas should encompass 99.7% of the outcomes. So these are significant anomalies. The positive V means a stronger south wind (think Gulf moisture transport), and the negative U is a stronger east wind (think cold conveyor, def band). So wherever this system goes it will have plenty of moisture to work with, and an impressive deformation band. nice stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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