weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I doubt this will transfer. I bet it will be a full blown lakes cutter. TX style panhandle hooker. Going down memory lane of 99 blizzard and Dec 11,000 snowstorm. Took similar tracks to this one we might end up seeing. Could it be the 3rd Chicago blizzard of 2011 all-time? I bet the GFS will continue to trend more NW and show a more narrow stripe of deformation band of snow.TROWEL set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Does anyone know of a site that shows freezing rain/sleet accums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think your safe where you sit now but any more of a north trend and you would have to worry about it. It always seems like the warm push from around 700mb-850mb is underdone but we'll see. quite the turning in the wind profile! too bad its not spring! Hope you're right. It's already borderline on the GGEM and especially Euro. Seems like the NAM is able to resolve the waa better so I'll be interested to see what it shows when it gets in the timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Skilling is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I woke up in the middle of the night and actually thought of this storm...several days out...what a sick hobby. I know... I can't sleep in, when my area has a chance at severe weather or a snowstorm. My internal clock wakes me up way to early/often to check models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z GFS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I doubt this will transfer. I bet it will be a full blown lakes cutter. TX style panhandle hooker. Going down memory lane of 99 blizzard and Dec 11,000 snowstorm. Took similar tracks to this one we might end up seeing. Could it be the 3rd Chicago blizzard of 2011 all-time? I bet the GFS will continue to trend more NW and show a more narrow stripe of deformation band of snow.TROWEL set-up. please stop with the whole historic storm setup and such. its 100hrs+ away still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 you are certainly having a steller season compared to us canuck. When's the last time you can remember Toronto getting more snow than Ottawa in a winter? I can't imagine there was ever one. We tend to be in the same boat. If it's a bad winter there, it's a bad winter here, and vice versa. Climo takes it from there to ensure you have more snow in both scenarios. This might be a first, but I'm confident you'll pull it out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 please stop with the whole historic storm setup and such. its 100hrs+ away still. Agree. I'm fed up hearing him say every single storm is going to be a lakes cutter when it is 5 days out. No reasoning behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I doubt this will transfer. I bet it will be a full blown lakes cutter. TX style panhandle hooker. Going down memory lane of 99 blizzard and Dec 11,000 snowstorm. Took similar tracks to this one we might end up seeing. Could it be the 3rd Chicago blizzard of 2011 all-time? I bet the GFS will continue to trend more NW and show a more narrow stripe of deformation band of snow.TROWEL set-up. I hope you're right! I remember the Dec 11th storm, my first snow day! As for Jan 1999, don't remember it but believe it was over a foot of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 15z sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z nocraps... south and weaker from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=webbriefing MKE muti-media briefing going with 6+ with lake enhancement Madison to Milwauckee southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 http://www.crh.noaa..../?n=webbriefing MKE muti-media briefing going with 6+ with lake enhancement Madison to Milwauckee southward. way too early IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I love how all the Ohio people are saying weaker/farther southeast and all the midwest people saying stronger/farther nw. Gonna be a long few days. Just let it all play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I love how all the Ohio people are saying weaker/farther southeast and all the midwest people saying stronger/farther nw. Gonna be a long few days. Just let it all play out. lol... you have to understand...since we are the southeastern most zone of our region, we are outnumbered severely by those rooting for nw or a gfs hold. I gotta do what i gotta do...and if it means pulling the nocraps out of my asss, i will it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 way too early IMO. Yeah I know it looks promising though ecp 72hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I love how all the Ohio people are saying weaker/farther southeast and all the midwest people saying stronger/farther nw. Gonna be a long few days. Just let it all play out. They get that way because while guidance has suggested a north movement to this, everything but the euro is quite a bit colder and south. the gem and GFS ensemble means suggest a I70 major snow storm with ice all the way into Kentucky and Arkansas. the OP's are warmer and north but still have a major ice and snow storm for I 70. then the euro is by itself and is warm and rain. Yet all the talk is a Lakes cutter and big snow. I can understand why it can get extremely frustrating to listen to when your from Ohio where that solution brings you rain and warmth and the rest are colder and wintry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lets just nip any regional bickering in the bud now....or take it to OT and fire away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol... you have to understand...since we are the southeastern most zone of our region, we are outnumbered severely by those rooting for nw or a gfs hold. I gotta do what i gotta do...and if it means pulling the nocraps out of my asss, i will it's all good. I like it where it is... a blend of all would be perfect here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lets just nip any regional bickering in the bud now....or take it to OT and fire away. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 They get that way because while guidance has suggested a north movement to this, everything but the euro is quite a bit colder and south. the gem and GFS ensemble means suggest a I70 major snow storm with ice all the way into Kentucky and Arkansas. the OP's are warmer and north but still have a major ice and snow storm for I 70. then the euro is by itself and is warm and rain. Yet all the talk is a Lakes cutter and big snow. I can understand why it can get extremely frustrating to listen to when your from Ohio where that solution brings you rain and warmth and the rest are colder and wintry.... Friv, relax...take a deep breath. This thing is far from settled with respect to who gets what and how much. Despite that, everyone wants their backyard to be the bullseye...there is no denying that. Regardless, it doesn't mean that if someone says it over and over, without any reason, it's going to happen that way. The big weenies come out with the potential big dogs. Just let it play out, discuss the possibilities with everyone and don't let any BY bias get to you. You're better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Does anyone have the 18Z GFS freezing rain accumulation?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 That looks like it's assuming ratios of 15:1 or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Seasonal south trend FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Does anyone have the 18Z GFS freezing rain accumulation?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm out with the wife and am killing time while she shops for shoes. Anyway anyone check the analogs? CWIPS? Posted from my Incredible HTC Droid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Seasonal south trend FTW It could happen but we're not in the blocking regime we were in. This looks more like the systems we saw in the last couple Ninas, and any significant southeast trends were hard to come by then. If something gets screwed up in the phasing process, then it becomes more likely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I woke up in the middle of the night and actually thought of this storm...several days out...what a sick hobby. wow i wake up in the AM and its the first thing i think of......but your taking it to another level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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