Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hoosier Storm ’11 rolls on. I'm sure we'll have more wackiness by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Going to be a long weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 With high snow ratios and lake enhancement/LES we could be looking at major accumulations around NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hoosier sent you a pm. BTW, Tom Skilling says a system that bears watching. Significant winter storm possible or close nearby. Mentions on one of models that by Monday night Neberaska and IA getting smoked. Yes Tony as always a system like this does merit the potential of Lake effect enhancement. Systems like these is our biggest lake enhancement producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hoosier sent you a pm. BTW, Tom Skilling says a system that bears watching. Significant winter storm possible or close nearby. Mentions on one of models that by Monday night Neberaska and IA getting smoked. Yes Tony as always a system like this does merit the potential of Lake effect enhancement. Systems like these is our biggest lake enhancement producers. Putting the cart before the horse here but lake temps are down to the mid upper 30s with a pretty good amount of near shore ice. Late January is typically the low point for lake enhancement because the fetch is shortened by ice and high delta Ts are harder to obtain. We’d probably see some added moisture but it wouldn’t be a ton. Back to the storm, after looking at it a bit, the 12z GFS isn't as bad as i though and i think might be a little stingy on the QPF up this way based on the 700mb low. Really a ton to watch the next few days and plenty of time for significant swings each way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Putting the cart before the horse here but lake temps are down to the mid upper 30s with a pretty good amount of near shore ice. Late January is typically the low point for lake enhancement because the fetch is shortened by ice and high delta Ts are harder to obtain. We’d probably see some added moisture but it wouldn’t be a ton. Back to the storm, after looking at it a bit, the 12z GFS isn't as bad as i though and i think might be a little stingy on the QPF up this way based on the 700mb low. Really a ton to watch the next few days and plenty of time for significant swings each way. That is a downfall but I am sure it wont take much sypnotic snow to bring heavy accumulations. Hopefully will see a beauitful scenery Tuesday and a nice cool NE lake breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Amazing that we're already on the third thread for a storm that's still at least 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Putting the cart before the horse here but lake temps are down to the mid upper 30s with a pretty good amount of near shore ice. Late January is typically the low point for lake enhancement because the fetch is shortened by ice and high delta Ts are harder to obtain. We’d probably see some added moisture but it wouldn’t be a ton. Back to the storm, after looking at it a bit, the 12z GFS isn't as bad as i though and i think might be a little stingy on the QPF up this way based on the 700mb low. Really a ton to watch the next few days and plenty of time for significant swings each way. Yeah I agree...maybe some lake contribution but probably not a lot. Also, since I see some bringing up possible ratios, don't forget to look at the whole column. Even if surface temps are cold, the ratios might not be as good as one would think if there's a lot of mid level warming occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Amazing that we're already on the third thread for a storm that's still at least 5 days out. It's an actual storm with a lot of precip and a large geographical area in the threat. No crappy clipper here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Amazing that we're already on the third thread for a storm that's still at least 5 days out. Well it's looking to be either "EPIC" or an "EPIC FAILURE".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 HPC requesting a recon flight, hopefully in time for 0z Sunday run, per HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I have a funny feeling this may end up being a full blow phase and northern stream gets better sampled later in the time period. I dont doubt a Indy to Detroit track in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It is going to be a long weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What worries me is SW shortwave might stall and give ample time to amplify and make run for Chicago track in the next 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's an actual storm with a lot of precip and a large geographical area in the threat. No crappy clipper here. Yeah, but 2 or 3 years ago, even for a whopper it wouldn't have been this active. It's a shame we can't confirm it, but IIRC we kept discussion for the Dec 15-16, 2007 storm confined to two threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well it's looking to be either "EPIC" or an "EPIC FAILURE".. Hopefully the former. Assuming the solutions stay somewhat stable, I'd have to think that watches will be flying at fairly long lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 HPC requesting a recon flight, hopefully in time for 0z Sunday run, per HPC. Nice to hear. I have a funny feeling this may end up being a full blow phase and northern stream gets better sampled later in the time period. I dont doubt a Indy to Detroit track in the end. How am I not surprised. Amazing that we're already on the third thread for a storm that's still at least 5 days out. the action will probably slow somewhat as geographic contenders fall off the map when track is narrowed down more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah, but 2 or 3 years ago, even for a whopper it wouldn't have been this active. It's ashame we can't confirm it, but IIRC we kept discussion for the Dec 15-16, 2007 storm confined to two threads. Well this one will need 6 or 7 parts when its all done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Very interesting looking storm. The Euro would deliver a huge snow for this particular area. Nice to see something like this in the forecast again, even if it doesn't pan out. The endless parade of clippers has been mildly entertaining, but this type of storm system is what we all look forward to tracking. My main concern at this point is with the amount of energy that hangs back behind the main lead wave. I think that may create some havoc with how the models handle this in coming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It is going to be a long weekend! No football either.. Pro Bowl for some bears players Looking like a nice saturday to enjoy the mini thaw.. Get out and enjoy the snow or w/e folks! Don't be like me today and fook up one of the nicest days to ice fish with friends over the stupid weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Nice to hear. How am I not surprised. Stop it. It's not the snow weenie. I gave another option to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 HPC going with a south of the OH River track keeping all snow north of the river. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 136 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 VALID 12Z MON JAN 31 2011 - 12Z FRI FEB 04 2011 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM SETTING UP NEXT WEEK FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHEAST... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS AGREEABLE WITH THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO OF AN ELONGATED MEAN TROF EXTENDING FROM NERN CANADA SWWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS... LIKELY WITH SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN SRN CANADA/NRN TIER CONUS FLOW AND WRN/SRN CONUS FLOW. THIS TROF WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MEAN RIDGE THAT SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE ERN PAC/WRN CANADA ALBEIT WITH SOME CHANGE IN SHAPE OVER TIME. WHILE A GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS WITH THE LARGE SCALE MEAN EVOLUTION... THERE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS DUE TO THE SPLIT FLOW NATURE OF THE NOAM PATTERN AND ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTIES PRESENTED BY ERN PAC ENERGY THAT MAY TRY TO PASS THRU THE MEAN RIDGE BY MID-LATE WEEK. THE MOST PROMINENT SFC SYSTEM FOR WHICH SHRTWV UNCERTAINTIES COME INTO PLAY IS FCST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TUE ONWARD. TO VARYING DEGREES THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE MADE MEANINGFUL NWWD ADJUSTMENTS FROM FAIRLY SUPPRESSED TRACKS IN MULTIPLE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF TREND IS MORE EXTREME AS ITS PREVIOUS TWO RUNS WERE ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE NEW 00Z RUN IS NOW ON THE NWRN SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE CANADIAN IS A FAST EXTREME TO BRING SWRN CONUS ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS AND IS ALSO IN THE NWRN PART OF THE SPREAD... WHILE THE UKMET TRACK IS NOT QUITE AS FAR NWWD AS ITS PREVIOUS RUN. OVERALL PREFER A GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN THAT FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF LATEST AND RECENT GUIDANCE GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY OF SHRTWV DETAILS AND SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... BY WED NIGHT-FRI THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING ENERGY THAT MAY TRY TO PASS THRU THE ERN PAC MEAN RIDGE. THE 00Z ECMWF AND SLOWER 00Z GFS BOTH SEEM A LITTLE STRONG SO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND USED FOR THE PLAINS/ERN CONUS SYSTEM PROVIDES A MORE TOLERABLE SOLN AT THIS TIME. THE GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE EXTREME WITH ITS SLOWER TIMING/WWD ELONGATION OF THE TROF SETTLING OVER THE SWRN CONUS SO INCLUSION OF THE ECMWF MEAN TONES DOWN THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST. WHILE DAYS 5-7 WED-FRI FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEANS... MISSING DATA DUE TO EARLIER COMMS ISSUES PRECLUDED USE OF THE ECMWF MEAN FOR DAYS 3-4. THUS THE EARLIER PART OF THE FCST STARTED WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SOLNS TO ARRIVE AT AN ACCEPTABLE COMPROMISE. UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS USE A MULTIMODEL BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/GFS ENS MEAN. THE RESULT IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE EARLIER USED SOLUTION. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND A COMPOSITE OF THE RUNS WOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD THE BLENDED SOLUTION OF HPC. NO CHANGES FOR AFTERNOON FINALS. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUESDAY AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGES DEEP INTO THE PLAINS WITH GREATER THAN 20 DEGREE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. THIS WILL BRING STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CO ROCKIES FRONT RANGE WITH MDT/HVY SNOWFALL TO THE SRN ROCKIES SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS OUT EWD AND A MDT SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN TX BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW MOVES NEWD INTO KY/TN WED AND REFORMS OFF THE MID ATLC CAPES AND RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD OFF NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY. MDT TO HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE INTO NEW ENG. HEAVY SNOW THREAT INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS QPF OUTPUT/ANALOGS AND FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH ICING THREAT ALONG THE CHANGE OVER AND THEN THE DAMMED IN AREA IN THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT. PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS REQUESTED INTO THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. IF A FLIGHT IS AVAILABLE THIS DATA COULD GET INTO THE MODEL SYSTEMS BY THE RUNS OF SUNDAY 00Z/12Z 30 JAN. RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah, but 2 or 3 years ago, even for a whopper it wouldn't have been this active. It's ashame we can't confirm it, but IIRC we kept discussion for the Dec 15-16, 2007 storm confined to two threads. It's the huge potential, lack of a big storm for most of us this winter, and the fact that the original thread was started about 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well this one will need 6 or 7 parts when its all done. I'm not giving a preference. There are ups and downs to more more/less members/posts. I'm just pointing it out as a fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I find it suspicious it ejects one big piece of energy but leaves alot of it behind. It may end up fizzling out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 I find it suspicious it ejects one big piece of energy but leaves alot of it behind. I don't see why it isn't possible. Still a lot to be figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I don't see why it isn't possible. Still a lot to be figured out. Because that piece that ejects into the plains might end up getting surpressed/flat with all that energy just lagging and hanging behind in Nevada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's the huge potential, lack of a big storm for most of us this winter, and the fact that the original thread was started about 10 days out. That's a good point. In last year or so there's been a propensity to start threads way out in advance. In contrast, the thread for 12/07 was started only 5 or 6 days out (No earlier than that 18z/10 run of the GFS that showed it crippling the east coast). But even accounting for that, there's much more posting now than there was then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 lol, I doubt it fizzles out. It is still possible I suspect the whole thing ejects out. We will have to wait and see, but we don't need the whole thing anyway. A lot of the GEM ensembles (maybe half or so) were ejecting the entire ul trough out. Take it fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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