February 1-3 Storm

[Srain]

Wow...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

320 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...

FIRE... THEN ICE. DRY BREEZY AND RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD WARM CONDITIONS

LEADING TO HOT SPOTS BREAKING OUT ALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS

AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTH

AS COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL/SW KS MOVES S THROUGH AREA TONIGHT

BRINGING FIRST SHOT OF COLDER AIR. UPPER SYSTEM OVER TX WILL

MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF -RA SE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

COLD SFC HIGH HAS BUILT NICELY OVER CANADA AND WILL PROVIDE THE

COLD AIR THROUGH MONDAY TO SET UP A POTENTIAL MAJOR MESS MONDAY

NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINTER STORM WATCH IS INEVITIBLE BUT WE WILL

HOLD OFF FOR NOW DUE TO THE WORST OF THE EVENT LIKELY UNFOLDING IN

PERIODS 5/6. STILL MANY VARIABLES AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING

PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS - ANOTHER REASON WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON

HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING. IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION FROM

RA/DZ TO ICE TO SNOW WILL BE RATHER SWIFT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FAVORS HEAVY

SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA BUT TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEM IS

UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE SO IS THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST

ACCUMULATIONS. STRONG WINDS LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND

POSSIBLY BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SOME AREAS BY

TUESDAY... AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS -10 TO -20 BY WED MORNING.

ALL RESOURCES TODAY ARE BEING BROUGHT TO BEAR ON THE COMPLEX

EVOLUTION OF EVENTS FROM NOW THROUGH TUE-WED... SO NO BIG CHANGES

AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THAT.

[Roger Smith]

So far I am seeing the trend expected from earlier comments and continue to believe that heavy snow will develop Feb 2-3 across most of PA, northern half of NJ and all of NY and New England. The frontal zone will be a tight temperature gradient with the arctic front about BWI-ACY and the modified polar front about DCA to Cape May NJ. This would argue for sleet and freezing rain in a narrow east-west band that might reach into the first tier of southern PA counties and across s.c NJ with heavy snow north of that. I would include NYC and LI in the heavy snow band looking at the wall of cold air to the north, the northeast wind flow and the pressure transfer late 2nd from PA/MD border to south of LI. Long way out yet, and expect the models to intensify this storm on a track very slightly south of the current 12z GFS. Looks like this one could generate 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates with some thunder-snow and totals 20-30 inches not out of the question in parts of central to eastern PA, northern NJ, metro NYC, LI, CT to 15-20 inches se MA (due to shorter duration more than intensity).

Meso-scale banding from Long Island Sound across NYC into northern NJ may be the jackpot for amounts in this storm. If pressure drops much lower than progged, we could see 40-60 mph winds generated at height of the storm, on current models would say 30-45 mph. Would expect frequent thunder-snow reports in the NYC region night of Feb 2-3.

Another area to watch for very heavy snow would be Hamilton-Niagara in southern Ontario as intense cold in strong northeast flow generates heavy lake enhancement of what would otherwise be 3-5 inches towards 15-25 inches At an earlier stage Chicago to Milwaukee could be seeing considerable lake enhancement also, with bitterly cold air mass in place, could increase roughly similar scale to above.. Same effect less potent in northwest OH (due to frozen surfaces of Lake Erie) but this may merely blend into the synoptic scale which will be heavier to south anyway. Saginaw Bay could see the northeast wind lake enhancement spreading into s/c MI for an extra 3-5 inches there. Parts of western NY could pick up some of this lake enhancement too, as winds turn more northerly. Synoptic scale snowfall likely to be about 8-12 inches in SYR-ALB trending down to 3-5 in northern NY.

Should also mention PIT with the potential to see 18-24 inches of snow on the current track.

[A-L-E-X]

There's very little difference between the GFS/ECM/GEFS/ECENS. Working out the p-type issues will remain tricky, but it's highly likely places like St Louis, Champaign, Indianapolis, and Columbus see a major snowfall out of this storm. The I-95 corridor, except maybe BOS, will probably see too much warming to get a significant snow, but interior sections that have been in a "snow hole" have another shot this week.

AMPSU, looks like the people in our subforum are already shifting focus to the coastal threat for next weekend, although by reading Roger's post, that might change

[MJO812]

Roger, that is a really bold cold. None of the models show that happening for the coast. All the models agree on snow/ice to rain for NYC. I can see this changing by the way this winter has gone.

[riverrat]

This would argue for sleet and freezing rain in a narrow east-west band that might reach into the first tier of southern PA counties and across s.c NJ with heavy snow north of that. I would include NYC and LI in the heavy snow band looking at the wall of cold air to the north, the northeast wind flow and the pressure transfer late 2nd from PA/MD border to south of LI. Long way out yet, and expect the models to intensify this storm on a track very slightly south of the current 12z GFS.

Sounds like HPC's thinking as of now. They were pretty good 3 days out on the last storm in this neck of the woods (or lack of.)

[Ellinwood]

So far I am seeing the trend expected from earlier comments and continue to believe that heavy snow will develop Feb 2-3 across most of PA, northern half of NJ and all of NY and New England. The frontal zone will be a tight temperature gradient with the arctic front about BWI-ACY and the modified polar front about DCA to Cape May NJ. This would argue for sleet and freezing rain in a narrow east-west band that might reach into the first tier of southern PA counties and across s.c NJ with heavy snow north of that. I would include NYC and LI in the heavy snow band looking at the wall of cold air to the north, the northeast wind flow and the pressure transfer late 2nd from PA/MD border to south of LI. Long way out yet, and expect the models to intensify this storm on a track very slightly south of the current 12z GFS. Looks like this one could generate 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates with some thunder-snow and totals 20-30 inches not out of the question in parts of central to eastern PA, northern NJ, metro NYC, LI, CT to 15-20 inches se MA (due to shorter duration more than intensity).

Meso-scale banding from Long Island Sound across NYC into northern NJ may be the jackpot for amounts in this storm. If pressure drops much lower than progged, we could see 40-60 mph winds generated at height of the storm, on current models would say 30-45 mph. Would expect frequent thunder-snow reports in the NYC region night of Feb 2-3.

Another area to watch for very heavy snow would be Hamilton-Niagara in southern Ontario as intense cold in strong northeast flow generates heavy lake enhancement of what would otherwise be 3-5 inches towards 15-25 inches At an earlier stage Chicago to Milwaukee could be seeing considerable lake enhancement also, with bitterly cold air mass in place, could increase roughly similar scale to above.. Same effect less potent in northwest OH (due to frozen surfaces of Lake Erie) but this may merely blend into the synoptic scale which will be heavier to south anyway. Saginaw Bay could see the northeast wind lake enhancement spreading into s/c MI for an extra 3-5 inches there. Parts of western NY could pick up some of this lake enhancement too, as winds turn more northerly. Synoptic scale snowfall likely to be about 8-12 inches in SYR-ALB trending down to 3-5 in northern NY.

Should also mention PIT with the potential to see 18-24 inches of snow on the current track.

All that description... make a map

[SnowMan]

So far I am seeing the trend expected from earlier comments and continue to believe that heavy snow will develop Feb 2-3 across most of PA, northern half of NJ and all of NY and New England. The frontal zone will be a tight temperature gradient with the arctic front about BWI-ACY and the modified polar front about DCA to Cape May NJ. This would argue for sleet and freezing rain in a narrow east-west band that might reach into the first tier of southern PA counties and across s.c NJ with heavy snow north of that. I would include NYC and LI in the heavy snow band looking at the wall of cold air to the north, the northeast wind flow and the pressure transfer late 2nd from PA/MD border to south of LI. Long way out yet, and expect the models to intensify this storm on a track very slightly south of the current 12z GFS. Looks like this one could generate 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates with some thunder-snow and totals 20-30 inches not out of the question in parts of central to eastern PA, northern NJ, metro NYC, LI, CT to 15-20 inches se MA (due to shorter duration more than intensity).

Meso-scale banding from Long Island Sound across NYC into northern NJ may be the jackpot for amounts in this storm. If pressure drops much lower than progged, we could see 40-60 mph winds generated at height of the storm, on current models would say 30-45 mph. Would expect frequent thunder-snow reports in the NYC region night of Feb 2-3.

Another area to watch for very heavy snow would be Hamilton-Niagara in southern Ontario as intense cold in strong northeast flow generates heavy lake enhancement of what would otherwise be 3-5 inches towards 15-25 inches At an earlier stage Chicago to Milwaukee could be seeing considerable lake enhancement also, with bitterly cold air mass in place, could increase roughly similar scale to above.. Same effect less potent in northwest OH (due to frozen surfaces of Lake Erie) but this may merely blend into the synoptic scale which will be heavier to south anyway. Saginaw Bay could see the northeast wind lake enhancement spreading into s/c MI for an extra 3-5 inches there. Parts of western NY could pick up some of this lake enhancement too, as winds turn more northerly. Synoptic scale snowfall likely to be about 8-12 inches in SYR-ALB trending down to 3-5 in northern NY.

Should also mention PIT with the potential to see 18-24 inches of snow on the current track.

for the call of 20 to 30 inches...

[Master of Disaster]

Going by the GFS runs only, I would be concerned about icing in the DC area. Lots of cold air in place aided by the snowpack and the E canadian PV, but the sfc/upper low tracks to the west of the area as an inland/apps runner. 850-700 thicknesses may appear to be warm enough for rain in DC, but the first blue 1000-850 thickness runs right throough DC and a bit south, raising the potential for sleet or freezing rain after an initial dose of a little snow if this pans out.

Jesus Christ NOOO!! We just closed the EOC this morning from a freakin 7" snowstorm that took 126,000 customers out for 5 days. No ICE!!

[Hoosier]

This looks massive...possibly one of the great storms of all-time in the lower lakes/OV.

[MJO812]

This looks massive...possibly one of the great storms of all-time in the lower lakes/OV.

You are due for a major snowstorm.Good luck.

[Hoosier]

You are due for a major snowstorm.Good luck.

Thanks. I had a huge one in '07 and big storm climo isn't that good, but it makes this potential more exciting. Discussion among some pro mets in the central subforum is that higher-res models may handle this type of setup better so take that for what it's worth.

[earthlight]

Thanks. I had a huge one in '07 and big storm climo isn't that good, but it makes this potential more exciting. Discussion among some pro mets in the central subforum is that higher-res models may handle this type of setup better so take that for what it's worth.

What the climo like out there? 12z GFS 96 hour depiction must be getting everybody really stoked out there.

[baroclinic_instability]

Thanks. I had a huge one in '07 and big storm climo isn't that good, but it makes this potential more exciting. Discussion among some pro mets in the central subforum is that higher-res models may handle this type of setup better so take that for what it's worth.

What the climo like out there? 12z GFS 96 hour depiction must be getting everybody really stoked out there.

It is going to be ridiculous barring any odd synoptic evolutions.

[A-L-E-X]

This looks massive...possibly one of the great storms of all-time in the lower lakes/OV.

Up there with November 1950 and the OV bomb of 1978? There's a couple of more recent ones I can think of-- I believe one happened around Christmas and deposited like three feet of snow in Indiana (07 or 08) and the other one hit Buffalo really hard (might have been 09).

[Hoosier]

What the climo like out there? 12z GFS 96 hour depiction must be getting everybody really stoked out there.

Biggest storm on record is a little over 20", although if you go north or south it gets more into the 24+ range. 10" storms happen perhaps a few times per decade here. There's still some uncertainty on where the heavy band will set up, but there's good model consensus of 1.5-2" qpf in the heaviest band with a broader area of 1-1.5". If ratios are better than 10:1 (and they should be in many areas), you see the potential.

[Hoosier]

Up there with November 1950 and the OV bomb of 1978? There's a couple of more recent ones I can think of-- I believe one happened around Christmas and deposited like three feet of snow in Indiana (07 or 08) and the other one hit Buffalo really hard (might have been 09).

Probably not quite in that league but still very good. The pre Christmas 2004 event dropped a small area of 2+ feet in Indiana/Ohio.

[earthlight]

Biggest storm on record is a little over 20", although if you go north or south it gets more into the 24+ range. 10" storms happen perhaps a few times per decade here. There's still some uncertainty on where the heavy band will set up, but there's good model consensus of 1.5-2" qpf in the heaviest band with a broader area of 1-1.5". If ratios are better than 10:1 (and they should be in many areas), you see the potential.

If the models have any clue somebody is probably going to at least come near 2 feet which seems pretty fair given the analogs of the big ones you mentioned. The H5 trough depiction is nearly classic. You have to at least hope the general idea holds; because that's a well developed and mature cyclone with a beast of a CCB. Closed H5 trough is rather anomalous as well, there will probably be some awesome deformation bands should this storm develop as modeled.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f96.gif

[baroclinic_instability]

Storm MODE! We have to be getting close. This storm is going to be something else.

[ravensrule]

Storm MODE! We have to be getting close. This storm is going to be something else.

There is only a storm mode if it is going to be something else on the east coast .

[Ellinwood]

There is only a storm mode if it is going to be something else on the east coast .

Did you hear that? It was the sound of a hundred Midwest posters cursing your name.

[Guru Of Reason]

These servers will be sent to a fiery hell.

[ravensrule]

Did you hear that? It was the sound of a hundred Midwest posters cursing your name.

Hey i only speak the truth, if we get 1,900 members on Board to match our record then i will give props to the Midwest.

Until then i am convinced the only place people reside in this country is the east coast .

[wxmx]

Euro, Ukie and to a lesser extent the CMC are hinting at a winter storm somewhere else Feb 3-4

[Guest stormchaser]

So far I am seeing the trend expected from earlier comments and continue to believe that heavy snow will develop Feb 2-3 across most of PA, northern half of NJ and all of NY and New England. The frontal zone will be a tight temperature gradient with the arctic front about BWI-ACY and the modified polar front about DCA to Cape May NJ. This would argue for sleet and freezing rain in a narrow east-west band that might reach into the first tier of southern PA counties and across s.c NJ with heavy snow north of that. I would include NYC and LI in the heavy snow band looking at the wall of cold air to the north, the northeast wind flow and the pressure transfer late 2nd from PA/MD border to south of LI. Long way out yet, and expect the models to intensify this storm on a track very slightly south of the current 12z GFS. Looks like this one could generate 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates with some thunder-snow and totals 20-30 inches not out of the question in parts of central to eastern PA, northern NJ, metro NYC, LI, CT to 15-20 inches se MA (due to shorter duration more than intensity).

Meso-scale banding from Long Island Sound across NYC into northern NJ may be the jackpot for amounts in this storm. If pressure drops much lower than progged, we could see 40-60 mph winds generated at height of the storm, on current models would say 30-45 mph. Would expect frequent thunder-snow reports in the NYC region night of Feb 2-3.

Another area to watch for very heavy snow would be Hamilton-Niagara in southern Ontario as intense cold in strong northeast flow generates heavy lake enhancement of what would otherwise be 3-5 inches towards 15-25 inches At an earlier stage Chicago to Milwaukee could be seeing considerable lake enhancement also, with bitterly cold air mass in place, could increase roughly similar scale to above.. Same effect less potent in northwest OH (due to frozen surfaces of Lake Erie) but this may merely blend into the synoptic scale which will be heavier to south anyway. Saginaw Bay could see the northeast wind lake enhancement spreading into s/c MI for an extra 3-5 inches there. Parts of western NY could pick up some of this lake enhancement too, as winds turn more northerly. Synoptic scale snowfall likely to be about 8-12 inches in SYR-ALB trending down to 3-5 in northern NY.

Should also mention PIT with the potential to see 18-24 inches of snow on the current track.

After reading your thread about lunar forcing i must say you a very intelligent individual. You put great effort and time into your work obviously. I have much respect for you and appreciate the research. I wish you the best with your forecast and hope it works out even though I cant see it happening.

[michsnowfreak]

What the climo like out there? 12z GFS 96 hour depiction must be getting everybody really stoked out there.

The climate here is one that favors tons of nickel and dime snowfalls (1-3/2-4/3-6"), decent snowcover, but not massive snowstorms. DTW's 44" seasonal average includes an average of 1-2 storms per season of 6"+, and a 10"+ storm every 5 years or so. So when you have most models saying 2 feet of snow is a possibility, it is bordering epic. Snow depths right now in metro-Detroit are between 6 and 9 inches, so we also could be looking at epic snow depths come Thursday if it pans out

[am19psu]

Two feet plus in ORD and DTW? And a foot in STL? It's on the table. I guess the only thing that sucks for the Midwest posters is that the stronger trends mean the R/S line is going to be farther north than the OH River.

[Srain]

LRGV appears to have Hard Freeze warnings ahead in Deep S TX...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX

400 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

TXZ248>257-301800-

ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-

INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...

SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...

MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...

PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...

LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA

400 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

...MASSIVE COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH-

CENTRAL CANADA...WILL RAPIDLY PLUNGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED

STATES AND INTO TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. VERY COLD AND DRY

AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO POUR

INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COLD

FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM WEST TO EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW

TO MID 40S DUE TO THE MASSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR WITH PARTLY TO

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERHEAD. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S WITHIN ZAPATA...JIM

HOGG...BROOKS...AND KENEDY COUNTY...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S

WITHIN STARR...HIDALGO...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTY. THE ENTIRE

RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WILL LIKELY BE

UNDER A FREEZE WARNING OR HARD FREEZE WARNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

MORNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREDIBLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING

THOSE TIMES.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER

SITUATION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND ARE ADVISED TO DEVELOP PLANS

TO PROTECT PEOPLE...PLANTS...PETS...AND PIPES FROM THE FREEZING

TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK.

[am19psu]

I guess the other big story is the potential for significant FZRA in DC/Philly/NYC on Tuesday. It's not an easy forecast, but those places could see a quarter to a third of an inch of ice (or more if everything falls just right).

[donsutherland1]

Two feet plus in ORD and DTW? And a foot in STL? It's on the table. I guess the only thing that sucks for the Midwest posters is that the stronger trends mean the R/S line is going to be farther north than the OH River.

It would be nice if ORD and DTW could experience a blockbuster snow event to ease the pain from the torture of what has been persistent cold but little snowfall.

[TUweathermanDD]

I guess the other big story is the potential for significant FZRA in DC/Philly/NYC on Tuesday. It's not an easy forecast, but those places could see a quarter to a third of an inch of ice (or more if everything falls just right).

Yeah I''ve been looking at that am19psu, I think DC/BAL could get .2-.4'' of ice potentially if the CAD is as modeled on the GFS and if the final solution is a bit colder.