Mallow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 this is suppose to be your signature winter. Strong La Nina 1949-50 analog. Anyway..-NAO in the long range gfs? Far from it. Certainly no 1949-50. We even had more snow last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Anyway..-NAO in the long range gfs? Indeed... this time around, anyway: (Image courtesy of MDA/EarthSat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 All I ask for is this pattern: Is that too much to ask for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 There seems to be little doubt now that the 13th-17th of the month are going to average out above to well above normal in the eastern half of the CONUS, but all of the ensemble guidance continues to point toward the establishment of a -NAO, even if it is a bit east based, with the polar vortex heading back towards Hudson Bay as the -EPO builds in at the same time (the EPO signal is weakly supported by tropical convection, too, giving the solution more credence). It's certainly looking more likely that the last 8-10 days of the month are headed back towards cooler temperatures across the Great Lakes and Northeast, and maybe the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Yeesh, we're really going to need the -NAO after President's Day, because there is little forcing for a -AO unless something comes from the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Yeesh, we're really going to need the -NAO after President's Day, because there is little forcing for a -AO unless something comes from the sun. Sounds like your confidence for the return of winter is waning compared to your post from yesterday. I see no sign of a -ao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Sounds like your confidence for the return of winter is waning compared to your post from yesterday. I see no sign of a -ao Not really. Probably compared to where I was at the end of January, it's less, but I've been on -NAO bandwagon for a week now. I'm just not particularly skillful at forecasting the NAO, so my confidence is less. I feel more confident that, after President's Day, the -EPO will return and the Pacific will be set up for cold into the northern half of the country. If the -NAO doesn't materialize, you're just going to have to wait a bit longer for winter to return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Not really. Probably compared to where I was at the end of January, it's less, but I've been on -NAO bandwagon for a week now. I'm just not particularly skillful at forecasting the NAO, so my confidence is less. I feel more confident that, after President's Day, the -EPO will return and the Pacific will be set up for cold into the northern half of the country. If the -NAO doesn't materialize, you're just going to have to wait a bit longer for winter to return. Like 10 months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Not really. Probably compared to where I was at the end of January, it's less, but I've been on -NAO bandwagon for a week now. I'm just not particularly skillful at forecasting the NAO, so my confidence is less. I feel more confident that, after President's Day, the -EPO will return and the Pacific will be set up for cold into the northern half of the country. If the -NAO doesn't materialize, you're just going to have to wait a bit longer for winter to return. there is no sign of a -NAO coming back either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 there is no sign of a -NAO coming back either hang in there. JB is honking HARD about the next two winters!!! ..oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 hang in there. JB is honking HARD about the next two winters!!! ..oh wait sounds like next year is a nuclear fallout type of winter. I am already buying supplies. He actually had a good idea on the superstorm for this week. It wouldnt of taken much to create one and some of the southern plains are getting destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 folks its a bad sign when me and buckeye start communicating again on the main message board. That means there is absolutely nothing going on in our regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 sounds like next year is a nuclear fallout type of winter. I am already buying supplies. He actually had a good idea on the superstorm for this week. It wouldnt of taken much to create one and some of the southern plains are getting destroyed. you give him way too much credit. If this streak continues in which the opposite of what he forecasts.....continues. We have some pretty dismal winters ahead. He said winter is basically over for 40 south. Betcha you guys end up seeing a KU event very late Feb - Mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 folks its a bad sign when me and buckeye start communicating again on the main message board. That means there is absolutely nothing going on in our regions. yea it was this or clean up my computer desktop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 EURO DC! ~50 sun 50+ mon 50+ tue 55+ wed ~60 thur 65-70 fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 yea it was this or clean up my computer desktop next step--trolling. Probably next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 EURO DC! ~50 sun 50+ mon 50+ tue 55+ wed ~60 thur i bet it dosent screw up that forecast from 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 next step--trolling. Probably next week Trolling isn't as fun when there's nothing to track. Hell there's not even a 360 hr gfs event i can congratulate you on for being in the bullseye...there's nothing, nada, zilch. Now that the wx is non existent, I've gotta be strong and keep from wandering back in and joining that sesspool of idiots banging their heads against a wall, (otherwise known as AP). I've been clean now for nearly 6 weeks....although i've had a few small relapses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 EURO DC! ~50 sun 50+ mon 50+ tue 55+ wed ~60 thur 65-70 fri Love it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 The models have really backed off any emergence of a -NAO over the last 3 days; from Monday, when most of the ensemble guidance showed the Greenland block by the 19th, to today, where they all show ridging over Scandanavia on the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 The models have really backed off any emergence of a -NAO over the last 3 days; from Monday, when most of the ensemble guidance showed the Greenland block by the 19th, to today, where they all show ridging over Scandanavia on the 20th. I think the -NAO will wait until early March to manifest itself, I really don't see the signals for a fully fledged -NAO (transient slightly negative maybe). Only hope for east of the Rockies is that the high latitude Aleutian ridge progresses east, toward Alaska. There might be some MJO help, but it won't be as strong as the previous one, so the push might be limited...and this is all after the 20th, probably closer to the 25th, if any. Until then, embrace 565+dm heights with love (except for 40N+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 I think the -NAO will wait until early March to manifest itself, I really don't see the signals for a fully fledged -NAO (transient slightly negative maybe). Only hope for east of the Rockies is that the high latitude Aleutian ridge progresses east, toward Alaska. There might be some MJO help, but it won't be as strong as the previous one, so the push might be limited...and this is all after the 20th, probably closer to the 25th, if any. Until then, embrace 565+dm heights with love (except for 40N+) Yeah, the MJO is not exerting much influence on the extratropics at all. New Euro weeklies never show a true -EPO ridge going up and, consequently, everywhere east of the Rockies is above normal through mid-March. It's certainly within the realm of possibility with no signs of a -AO anytime soon and a weak tropical influence. The weeklies do show a weak -NAO after President's Day, but it really only saves New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Yeah, the MJO is not exerting much influence on the extratropics at all. New Euro weeklies never show a true -EPO ridge going up and, consequently, everywhere east of the Rockies is above normal through mid-March. It's certainly within the realm of possibility with no signs of a -AO anytime soon and a weak tropical influence. The weeklies do show a weak -NAO after President's Day, but it really only saves New England. It seems like just when spring is supposed to start we head back towards cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SacrydDreamz Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I don't know about you guys, but having not seen the ground in forever I really am looking forward to 40s and 50s... I'd like to go to the park,, go for a walk, hell -- just simply go outside without having to have my kids look like marshmallows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I don't know about you guys, but having not seen the ground in forever I really am looking forward to 40s and 50s... I'd like to go to the park,, go for a walk, hell -- just simply go outside without having to have my kids look like marshmallows. I'm ready for some new vegetation. Been ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Yeah, the MJO is not exerting much influence on the extratropics at all. New Euro weeklies never show a true -EPO ridge going up and, consequently, everywhere east of the Rockies is above normal through mid-March. It's certainly within the realm of possibility with no signs of a -AO anytime soon and a weak tropical influence. The weeklies do show a weak -NAO after President's Day, but it really only saves New England. Weak MJO close to phases 8-1, weak -EPO and weak -NAO are showing in the models and their ensembles in the mid range. This might mean the big W coast trough might dig and swing east, pushing the strong SE ridge to the east (-NAO might weaken it's anchor). The N Plains will see a brief warmup before turning colder, the C and S Plains, as well as the Mid West might see a lengthier warmup, while the E third, specially the SE might not see something significantly colder, but that's more of a toss up. My guess is that it's transient, and not a turn over pattern to cold overall in the eastern 2/3s of the CONUS. Weak -OLR anomalies near the dateline at day 10+. This might be MJO induced (phases 8-1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 It looks to me that the best shot for a tropically induced cold snap in the East will be in about 15-25 days, depending on the phase speed of this wave over Africa. It appears to be a stronger push than the current wave over Australia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Also, if this Asian mountain torque can sustain itself, we could see a -AO return for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Also, if this Asian mountain torque can sustain itself, we could see a -AO return for March. The upper stratosphere has been having periodic warmings all year, but not strong enough to propagate down. There was a significant solar flare yesterday (M6.6) and a CME which is earth directed, and the sun is still producing upper end C flares at the moment. I think that might be the catalyst for a stronger stratospheric warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SacrydDreamz Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 am, you have any links for any good peer-reviewed articles relating to mountain torquing and/or MJO forcing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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