SNE Obs and Banter

[Tropopause_Fold]

I really think if we had this a month from now, things may be a little different. Not only are we trying to adjust to Nina winter....Mother Nature itself is also adjusting to the winter season. The sh*t is hitting the fan all at once so to speak, and models are clearly struggling.

I think the NAO has a better correlation with temps for us for DJFM. The GOA will play games with us for the next couple of weeks, but if we continue to play around with this type of pattern....I feel pretty good that it will pay off eventually. Could I be wrong, and we get less than 6" of snow for December?? Sure, but I'll play the hand given to me. We'll have a battle potentially, because the risk is to the warm side...at least for the next 2 weeks.

what i don't understand is why suddenly everyone thinks we are toast. i understand being disappointed that it looks like it warms up behind the late week cool shot, but i get lost in the thought process that implies winter is over because of that.

[moneypitmike]

It gets exhausting trying to calm people down, but in the end weenies will be weenies. I don't blame them however. We all thought the pattern was ripe with potential last year, and look what happened. I know I was one of those leading the charge for that last year, with Cweat trying to make some digs about the upcoming potential. Well, we really did have potential, but no human can predict if a random lobe of vorticity would be the culprit of an ultimate screw job...two weeks out. You just can't tell two weeks out if a storm will miss by 100 miles...what are you goona do.

So I understand if people get upset seeing a promising pattern, become not so promising. But lets just see how the next few weeks play out. Despite the risk to the warm side, I also think at some point the block may pay off. Perhaps we get heights to rise out west temporarily. It only takes a 10 day period for people to really cash in.

It's still promising--we're just disappointed in what it's promising. lol

[weatherwiz]

It gets exhausting trying to calm people down, but in the end weenies will be weenies. I don't blame them however. We all thought the pattern was ripe with potential last year, and look what happened. I know I was one of those leading the charge for that last year, with Cweat trying to make some digs about the upcoming potential. Well, we really did have potential, but no human can predict if a random lobe of vorticity would be the culprit of an ultimate screw job...two weeks out. You just can't tell two weeks out if a storm will miss by 100 miles...what are you goona do.

So I understand if people get upset seeing a promising pattern, become not so promising. But lets just see how the next few weeks play out. Despite the risk to the warm side, I also think at some point the block may pay off. Perhaps we get heights to rise out west temporarily. It only takes a 10 day period for people to really cash in.

I actually agree, all you can really do in the long-term is really depict whether or not a the pattern has potential. That's all you can really look for really, chances are if the pattern that looks to setup has potential you're going to cash in, there will be times when it won't work out, like last year but those are more of the exception.

Give me a pattern that shows potential and I'll work off that, if it ends up not working out well than that's unfortunate.

[Mr Torchey]

what i don't understand is why suddenly everyone thinks we are toast. i understand being disappointed that it looks like it warms up behind the late week cool shot, but i get lost in the thought process that implies winter is over because of that.

Its just a bummer, another cutter next week, and if goofus is right another impressive torch, ridging off the east coast. Holidays are here, nice to have some "winterlike" weather around. But, being realistic, many of the expectations were fed by irresponsible mets, NONE of which are on this board, but it fuels the fire and the weenie in most of us.

Also I think the fact that the 2nd half of last winter for most of us was a dissapointment makes many anxious for some dendritical deliciousness, just weenie nature really.

[Snow Bow]

Winter will always be winter, sometimes your going to have a snowless november. Which looks to transition into a less than favorable December but one big storm and the whole tune of things changes quickly. And the people complaining now will be happy again. They just need to take it as it comes. Every storm cant be a winner for everyone.

[Tropopause_Fold]

oh man...i quit.

the 348hr GFS now shows a lakes cutter. blizzard canceled. winter's over. we should all stop posting.

[Damage In Tolland]

what i don't understand is why suddenly everyone thinks we are toast. i understand being disappointed that it looks like it warms up behind the late week cool shot, but i get lost in the thought process that implies winter is over because of that.

IMO if we/the models are having toruble forecasting a pattern 6-10 days out..how can we/models possibly forecast anything farther out in time. We had unanimous agreement model/ensemble wise on this cold period for well over a week..and then suddenly it vanished right before our eyes. That's my biggest issue. Maybe I have a problem..I don't know..but it irritates me to no end.

[wokeupthisam]

oh man...i quit.

the 348hr GFS now shows a lakes cutter. blizzard canceled. winter's over. we should all stop posting.

That's what we need, since it's on the long-range GFS its perfect: won't happen

Kinda like when George Costanza went with being 'opposite', he started getting what he wanted

[dryslot]

oh man...i quit.

the 348hr GFS now shows a lakes cutter. blizzard canceled. winter's over. we should all stop posting.

With all these gfs runs always showing these storms at 384 hr, I wonder how many of these storms we actually end up getting to come to fruition over the years, Anyone have any data for that........

[dryslot]

IMO if we/the models are having toruble forecasting a pattern 6-10 days out..how can we/models possibly forecast anything farther out in time. We had unanimous agreement model/ensemble wise on this cold period for well over a week..and then suddenly it vanished right before our eyes. That's my biggest issue. Maybe I have a problem..I don't know..but it irritates me to no end.

My question would be why can't it flip back the other way if it lost it that quick, The models all seem to be struggling with the upcoming pattern......

[weatherwiz]

IMO if we/the models are having toruble forecasting a pattern 6-10 days out..how can we/models possibly forecast anything farther out in time. We had unanimous agreement model/ensemble wise on this cold period for well over a week..and then suddenly it vanished right before our eyes. That's my biggest issue. Maybe I have a problem..I don't know..but it irritates me to no end.

Sometimes I think some people just take models for verbatim too much and place too much stock into what they actually are showing. For example, when they were showing the cold snap and such everyone became excited and started posting about cooler weather and cold making it's way in, then once they started backing off and so did everyone else.

Sometimes you just have to use the power human's have that computers don't...the power to take things into perspective and use past history.

For one, did we really think we were going to actually see a HUGE east-coast trough in a year like this?

Also, how many times in the past did we see models show such an intense pattern setting up in the fantasy range only for it to back off as we get closer? It happens almost every time.

When I see cases like what we have seen in the past week plus where models show one set of extremes (in this case a switch to colder weather) and then fluctuate back and forth or have different models show different solutions I think one thing...EVENTUALLY the pattern will change, it's just usually it is delayed some. Models always seem to be too fast with the pattern change.

The pattern should and will eventually going to change, it just isn't going to happen this weekend like we thought it would last week, it will probably be delayed a bit more into December.

[Damage In Tolland]

My question would be why can't it flip back the other way if it lost it that quick, The models all seem to be struggling with the upcoming pattern......

Because it doesn't work that way. The Euro was the first model to pick up on this failed pattern and we all chalked it up to a bad run or 2..then it wnet cold again for a run or 2..and then it went warm and has gotten warmer with each run for days 6-10..to the point of having more 60's next week...in December which to me is the real kick in the balls.

[moneypitmike]

IMO if we/the models are having toruble forecasting a pattern 6-10 days out..how can we/models possibly forecast anything farther out in time. We had unanimous agreement model/ensemble wise on this cold period for well over a week..and then suddenly it vanished right before our eyes. That's my biggest issue. Maybe I have a problem..I don't know..but it irritates me to no end.

These were the sentiments I posted yesterday morning that led to the desciriptn of me going over the falls without a barrell. lol

Meanwhile, I guess I'm one of the few still in the 40's. 46.9/46. Dense fog continues.

[CoastalWx]

My question would be why can't it flip back the other way if it lost it that quick, The models all seem to be struggling with the upcoming pattern......

I think it has to do with the Pacific. I think the pattern out that way is playing games, and the models aren't deep enough with troughing out west or up by the GOA. The funny thing is, some of the ensemble means had low pressure move overhead and to the west, but yet the thicknesses were pretty cold. That right there is a red flag, but you never know for certain because this occurred during the period last week where 00z trended warmer, and 12z trended cooler.

[weatherwiz]

My question would be why can't it flip back the other way if it lost it that quick, The models all seem to be struggling with the upcoming pattern......

Well it's a highly complex pattern with so many variables in play. Since the pattern is pretty much driven by NAO/PNA/EPO state any slight differences with the ofrecast of any one of these can have HUGE implications on what the models are going to show model wise. Don't forget, the models are trying to get a feel for the pattern just as much as we are and when we see such drastic changes from run to run and model to model and such inconsistencies it can really only mean one thing IMO...Pattern change upcoming...it's just trying to figure out when it will exactly occur and when it will transpire, sometimes it needs help from a strong storm system, other times it needs help from what's occurring in the atmosphere, sometimes from the sun. Once the models finally get a better handle on all of these factors then the agreement becomes better and b/c of all this it usually isn't until the medium range before the models finally bet a better sniff of things.

[weatherwiz]

I think it has to do with the Pacific. I think the pattern out that way is playing games, and the models aren't deep enough with troughing out west or up by the GOA. The funny thing is, some of the ensemble means had low pressure move overhead and to the west, but yet the thicknesses were pretty cold. That right there is a red flag, but you never know for certain because this occurred during the period last week where 00z trended warmer, and 12z trended cooler.

You know what might be an issue as well, the data source for the models in this region of the Pacific isn't all that great either so lack of data and if any bad data is being used it's totally going to complicate things even further.

[dryslot]

I think it has to do with the Pacific. I think the pattern out that way is playing games, and the models aren't deep enough with troughing out west or up by the GOA. The funny thing is, some of the ensemble means had low pressure move overhead and to the west, but yet the thicknesses were pretty cold. That right there is a red flag, but you never know for certain because this occurred during the period last week where 00z trended warmer, and 12z trended cooler.

So i am guessing that any subtle shift in the pattern out west could have huge implications here on the east coast one way or the other especially if the data is not correct thats being dispalyed on the models at this time.....

[CoastalWx]

So i am guessing that any subtle shift in the pattern out west could have huge implications here on the east coast one way or the other.....

It's probably a little more than subtle, but anytime you have troughs tending to be deeper and stronger out that way...especially this time of year, tends to lead to ridging in the east. The other thing the gfs is doing, is talking our storm on Friday, moving it to a position east of Newfoundland, and then retrograding it west. When this happens, the 50/50 low fails to occur and ridging over the East can happen with ease. If that 50/50 low were there, you would have one heck of a barrier for heights to build in the east.

[dryslot]

Well it's a highly complex pattern with so many variables in play. Since the pattern is pretty much driven by NAO/PNA/EPO state any slight differences with the ofrecast of any one of these can have HUGE implications on what the models are going to show model wise. Don't forget, the models are trying to get a feel for the pattern just as much as we are and when we see such drastic changes from run to run and model to model and such inconsistencies it can really only mean one thing IMO...Pattern change upcoming...it's just trying to figure out when it will exactly occur and when it will transpire, sometimes it needs help from a strong storm system, other times it needs help from what's occurring in the atmosphere, sometimes from the sun. Once the models finally get a better handle on all of these factors then the agreement becomes better and b/c of all this it usually isn't until the medium range before the models finally bet a better sniff of things.

And you pretty much nailed the reasoning on the head as to why not to let your emotions get to far out of hand one way or the other, If there is not a lot of data from over the years as to this type of La Nina pattern then my thinking is that not only will the mets struggle with it but models and ensembles as well so i think we have to wait until some type of pattern gets establish before we know what will actually happen this winter going forward...

[Mr Torchey]

56

clouds have moved in capping temps, actually down two degrees in the last hour with a sw wind off the relatively cool LIS.

[weatherwiz]

And you pretty much nailed the reasoning on the head as to why not to let your emotions get to far out of hand one way or the other, If there is not a lot of data from over the years as to this type of La Nina pattern then my thinking is that not only will the mets struggle with it but models and ensembles as well so i think we have to wait until some type of patter gets establish before we know what will actually happen this winter going forward...

The best thing to do is just to keep emotions out of it b/c if you're going to be very emotional you're just going to be a total train wreck.

As Will has stated in the past long-range forecasting is MUCH tougher in the Northeast than it is for places like the mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. For example, you aren't really going to find many above-average snowfall winters at all in a moderate/strong Nina from places NYC on south. Here, however, the signal you get is a mixed one. We just end up in the battle ground so much that it can go either way.

That's not to say though it isn't possible to make long-range forecasts for our region, in fact I think it makes it that much more interesting and that much more fun, I mean how boring would it be if it was easy or easier? I know for myself 99% of the fun comes with the fact that you just don't know and that it's so complicated.

[dryslot]

The best thing to do is just to keep emotions out of it b/c if you're going to be very emotional you're just going to be a total train wreck.

As Will has stated in the past long-range forecasting is MUCH tougher in the Northeast than it is for places like the mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. For example, you aren't really going to find many above-average snowfall winters at all in a moderate/strong Nina from places NYC on south. Here, however, the signal you get is a mixed one. We just end up in the battle ground so much that it can go either way.

That's not to say though it isn't possible to make long-range forecasts for our region, in fact I think it makes it that much more interesting and that much more fun, I mean how boring would it be if it was easy or easier? I know for myself 99% of the fun comes with the fact that you just don't know and that it's so complicated.

Well there are some on here that are getting quite emotional over it, Case in point up this way in 07-08 the pattern was not that great as we had a +nao for most of that winter with marginal cold and we had one of our best winters in years, So i am not going to sweat the details of what is being depicted for this upcoming pattern as we are only in Nov and have a long way to go.....

[weatherwiz]

Well there are some on here that are getting quite emotional over it, Case in point up this way in 07-08 the pattern was not that great as we had a +nao for most of that winter with marginal cold and we had one of our best winters in years, So i am not going to sweat the details of what is being depicted for this upcoming pattern as we are only in Nov and have a long way to go.....

Well that's the beauty of living where we do...even something that might seem unfavorable can still produce!

That also just goes to show you there is more to it than whether or not a certain index is just positive or negative...it also depends on where it is setup and how it was at the time of the event. +NAO patterns (while rare) can still produce cold/snow here in New England, it just all depends on where the anomalies are setup and such and what the Pacific looks like as well.

[dryslot]

Well that's the beauty of living where we do...even something that might seem unfavorable can still produce!

That also just goes to show you there is more to it than whether or not a certain index is just positive or negative...it also depends on where it is setup and how it was at the time of the event. +NAO patterns (while rare) can still produce cold/snow here in New England, it just all depends on where the anomalies are setup and such and what the Pacific looks like as well.

This is why i am not being a debbie downer to the recent trend here, I think we still see snow up here marginal or not......

[weatherwiz]

This is why i am not being a debbie downer to the recent trend here, I think we still see snow up here marginal or not......

The mixed forecasts from people also come from the fact which Nina years you're deciding to use as analogs. For example, the analogs I have come up with for this year have sucked, however, one of my secondary analogs which happens to be 2007-2008 was a pretty decent to great winter. While I have been negative I guess, especially for CT/RI I've also had 1970-1971 come up as an analog so I definitely don't discount that this can be an extremely awesome winter, but I have chosen to go with years like 1973-1974 and 1975-1976 as my two main players just b/c for what I've worked on I think those are the two best matches.

It all basically comes down to how one views what's going on within the atmosphere/pattern and how it will evolve.

This is why I hate to see people attack each other b/c they have different thoughts, for example some people have really attacked Nate when he doesn't warrant it. Just b/c his thoughts are portraying what people DON'T want doesn't mean he should be attacked. It's not also like he is trolling or posting stuff from his behind, he is backing up what his thoughts with data and how he perceives things will happen, nothing wrong with that.

[dryslot]

The mixed forecasts from people also come from the fact which Nina years you're deciding to use as analogs. For example, the analogs I have come up with for this year have sucked, however, one of my secondary analogs which happens to be 2007-2008 was a pretty decent to great winter. While I have been negative I guess, especially for CT/RI I've also had 1970-1971 come up as an analog so I definitely don't discount that this can be an extremely awesome winter, but I have chosen to go with years like 1973-1974 and 1975-1976 as my two main players just b/c for what I've worked on I think those are the two best matches.

It all basically comes down to how one views what's going on within the atmosphere/pattern and how it will evolve.

This is why I hate to see people attack each other b/c they have different thoughts, for example some people have really attacked Nate when he doesn't warrant it. Just b/c his thoughts are portraying what people DON'T want doesn't mean he should be attacked. It's not also like he is trolling or posting stuff from his behind, he is backing up what his thoughts with data and how he perceives things will happen, nothing wrong with that.

I have sat back and read all the post going back and forth, Will and nzucker had a discussion over the pattern as one is reading and focusing more on certain things within the pattern and others are using the overall picture as to what the outcome may be, Right now, Nobody knows ultimately who's right or who's wrong, Maybe a couple months from now somebody will be able to claim victory or maybe it ends up somewhere in between what everyone thought......

[Damage In Tolland]

Thankfully these clouds came in today to keep a lid on the temps..otherwise it would have been brutal

[weatherwiz]

I have sat back and read all the post going back and forth, Will and nzucker had a discussion over the pattern as one is reading and focusing more on certain things within the pattern and others are using the overall picture as to what the outcome may be, Right now, Nobody knows ultimately who's right or who's wrong, Maybe a couple months from now somebody will be able to claim victory or maybe it ends up somewhere in between what everyone thought......

Yeah nobody is going to know who is right or wrong until that time of period comes and goes. Will and Nate have both done an excellent job with stating their points and backing up what they have to say with data. People are going to interpret things differently, especially when you have so many differences and inconsistencies with how things are going to setup. Everyone has a right to their own opinion and forecast...as long as it's back up with data.

Let's also be honest, Nate is getting a bunch of crap just b/c his thoughts are basically pointing towards something that makes many here very unhappy...even though his December forecast was for below-normal temps and good snowfall chances...he is even disagreeing with is December call. If he was going out and saying the upcoming pattern was going to be cold/snow everyone would be kissing his feet but since his thoughts are "negative" he gets a gun to his head.

The people in here who have basically done the best with presenting their thoughts are Will, Phil, Scott, Nate, and Typhoon Tip when he was chimed in. I don't see how anyone can be attacked for presenting their thoughts with data. Look at the ones who have done the attacking and claiming oh this will be great, this will be epic...blah, blah...none of them have backed up anything they've said with any data.

[CoastalWx]

Windy windy windy tomorrow.

[Damage In Tolland]

Windy windy windy tomorrow.

75-100 trees down regionwide?