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SNE Obs and Banter


moneypitmike

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A day like tomorrow is the days I hate the MOST in the late fall/early winter. I absolutely CAN'T stand those windy cold days, especially when I have to walk somewhere, usually to work. I used to think it was bad when I lived at my aunts, that was only about a 15-minute walk, now it's more like a 30-35 minute walk, although I usually will take the bus or get a ride from my mom if she happens to be going to work at the same time I do.

I'm actually surprised I've never been arrested or ticketed for breach of peace since usually when it's cold and windy I spend my entire walk screaming and cursing really loud, and in West Hartford they'll give you breach of peach for farting too loud in public.

:huh:

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Just spent the last ten mins reding Twitter feeds from Il tornados, what are your gusts tomorrow? Scooter working the aviation desk should have fun.

i don't think they are anything too crazy...gusts probably topping out 45 or 50 mph. could be the kind of day where a spot like PVC really rips during the afternoon / evening though - like sustained at 30 knots G 40 knots for hours on end.

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Man we're not the only region with people in despair..I just went to all the different subforums and people are upset and irate in every region. Just an awful turn of events these last 2 days

Sucks, man.. One day (sunday) its in the 30's for a high... then the next (monday) its a cutter to MN and a tornado rips through 15 mins to my south and its 60 out.. Today and tomorrow highs in the 20's with cirrus and then low and behold another cutter and rain for thanksgiving.. Worst summer and fall I can ever remember.

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You know, everybody is so scared that December will be the only month for winter..since they got brainwashed to believe that. So, because of that, we are now expected to get 30" of snow for the month, and everyone is expecting it to go like gangbusters.

I've never seen you like this before. It's a scary side. i hope you're not gonna go home and push a loved one down the stairs

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LOL I'm obviously kidding around...I'm fine. There's just too much negativity already on 11/23. Just give December a chance.

how in the world a late nov / early dec cold snap not locking in is making people so upset is beyond me. i never thought i'd look to Ray for a level headed approach, but at least he seems to recognize that a few above normal days in late november don't make a winter.

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I've never seen you like this before. It's a scary side. i hope you're not gonna go home and push a loved one down the stairs

He does have a great point, it's way too early to be going crazy. The issue is many of us realize and think that as winter goes on things are going to become less and less favorable, just about everyone who has made a winter outlook seems to agree on this so we all think our window of opportunity is quite small.

It's still very early in the game though, like I said earlier just b/c things aren't looking so hot now doesn't mean it's time to stick the weenie in the bun. It doesn't appear as if were going to lose the -NAO signal anytime soon, this is great. As we go into the heart of December and into January the -NAO signal becomes much stronger for us in terms of correlation with temps and snowfall. The signals are also pointing towards a pretty negative NAO.

With the expected strengthening of the La Nina over the upcoming weeks this will help to make the PNA to become even more negative. This is not good for areas in the mid-Atlantic as a -PNA can lead to a huge SE ridge...the PNA correlation for us is not a very strong one. What this -PNA will do with increased SE ridge is to help setup a nice battle ground for our region, especially with a nicely -NAO. This is when our chances will come...mid December-early January.

After this is when we may begin to see a relaxation of the -NAO and once that happens then we will see a bit more of an impact from the strongly negative PNA and the SE ridge...the gradient will be shifted northward a bit which will tend to screw us here in CT.

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how in the world a late nov / early dec cold snap not locking in is making people so upset is beyond me. i never thought i'd look to Ray for a level headed approach, but at least he seems to recognize that a few above normal days in late november don't make a winter.

I really think if we had this a month from now, things may be a little different. Not only are we trying to adjust to Nina winter....Mother Nature itself is also adjusting to the winter season. The sh*t is hitting the fan all at once so to speak, and models are clearly struggling.

I think the NAO has a better correlation with temps for us for DJFM. The GOA will play games with us for the next couple of weeks, but if we continue to play around with this type of pattern....I feel pretty good that it will pay off eventually. Could I be wrong, and we get less than 6" of snow for December?? Sure, but I'll play the hand given to me. We'll have a battle potentially, because the risk is to the warm side...at least for the next 2 weeks.

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It gets exhausting trying to calm people down, but in the end weenies will be weenies. I don't blame them however. We all thought the pattern was ripe with potential last year, and look what happened. I know I was one of those leading the charge for that last year, with Cweat trying to make some digs about the upcoming potential. Well, we really did have potential, but no human can predict if a random lobe of vorticity would be the culprit of an ultimate screw job...two weeks out. You just can't tell two weeks out if a storm will miss by 100 miles...what are you goona do.

So I understand if people get upset seeing a promising pattern, become not so promising. But lets just see how the next few weeks play out. Despite the risk to the warm side, I also think at some point the block may pay off. Perhaps we get heights to rise out west temporarily. It only takes a 10 day period for people to really cash in.

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