WeSuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Since we were talking about the art of gambling on the weather last night, I have pulled up the law under Virginia State Code... This is Virginia's law so look up your own state for your rules and regulations. § 18.2-325. Definitions. 1. "Illegal gambling" means the making, placing or receipt, of any bet or wager in this Commonwealth of money or other thing of value, made in exchange for a chance to win a prize, stake or other consideration or thing of value, dependent upon the result of any game, contest or any other event the outcome of which is uncertain or a matter of chance, whether such game, contest or event, occurs or is to occur inside or outside the limits of this Commonwealth. Now, Lets analyze this. First of all, weather is not a game so that is out of the question as referred to within this code. Weather is also not a contest in which, for example, you would bet on who wins a race. So that is out the window as well. Now this is where it gets fun especially when you dissect this code of law... Weather IS an event, one we have NO control over meaning the outcomes would be uncertain. HOWEVER, is a particular storm affecting a so called area with a certain amount of snow merely chance as referred to within the code of law??? This is where you must implement weather models and forecasts into the equation. Let me specify an example... Lets say we have a winter storm developing on all of the models and it is 3-4 days out. We now know our chances of a storm are increasing. Lets suppose we open betting up at the 3 day mark and we play it this way.... ORF = -/+ 2.3" RIC = -/+ 4.1" DC = -/+ 6.5" BAL = -/+ 6.7" in SNOW These particular numbers would be offered when betting opens at 3 days out and would change as time gets closer to the event, where anything below 0.5" would be void of betting. When you place a bet, the numbers you bet on will remain the same for your bet even if those numbers change as time progresses. At the 72 hours out mark your return on a dollar, if correct, would yield $5.00 At the 48 hours out mark your return on a dollar, if correct, would yield $4.00 At the 24 hours out mark your return on a dollar, if correct, would yield $3.00 At the 12 hour out mark your return on a dollar, if correct, would yield $2.00 So we have our system set up here and we want to bet.... BUT we know based on multitudes of data from computer models and professional meteorologists what is likely to happen within a specified time. This is not like horse racing where we have paper stats to go by, because the horses are living beings while humans can also control the outcomes....Remember, we can't control the outcome of a storm and a weather model isn't going to throw a corrupt solution at us either (At least we hope not). Therefore, while it is chance and the final outcome is uncertain, can't we all agree that when using the Virginia code of law, we can say that weather is not 100% luck and uncertain? Especially when we have computer models and pro mets at our side and have the ability to bet up until 12 hours to an event which would also dramatically increase our ability to choose a winner? I would love to fight this in court even though I would probably lose.... Lets hear it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Since we were talking about the art of gambling on the weather last night, I have pulled up the law under Virginia State Code... This is Virginia's law so look up your own state for your rules and regulations. *cut* Lets hear it! This has really gotten to your head. I'd say it's the same as horse races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NZinDC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 1. "Illegal gambling" means the making, placing or receipt, of any bet or wager in this Commonwealth of money or other thing of value, made in exchange for a chance to win a prize, stake or other consideration or thing of value, dependent upon the result of any game, contest or any other event the outcome of which is uncertain or a matter of chance, whether such game, contest or event, occurs or is to occur inside or outside the limits of this Commonwealth. Uncertain: not definitely ascertainable or fixed, as in time of occurrence,number, dimensions, or quality. liable to variation; changeable: the weather is uncertain So you can't really argue "uncertain". Chance: the absence of any cause of events that can be predicted,understood, or controlled: often personified or treated as apositive agency: Chance governs all. a possibility or probability of anything happening: a fifty-percent chance of success. The way you framed your game, it might come under the second definition, in which case it is certainly a matter of chance. Even if you successfully argued it came under the first, while you may argue that the cause of the event can be predicted and understood, at best any such understanding is partial, and any such prediction is within a range of possibilities, which actually leads you back to the second definition. And I don't even need to go into "controlled", although I am sure someone will argue that too. In any case, even if you get lucky with the definition of "chance", the code clearly says uncertain or matter of chance, so you're screwed on uncertain. But I'm not a lawyer, so, hey, YMMV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'll bet 20 dollars on something in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 1) You're putting a wager on an outcome that is not guaranteed and you stand to make or lose monetary value. That's gambling. 2) Why in the hell would you bet on the weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 1) You're putting a wager on an outcome that is not guaranteed and you stand to make or lose monetary value. That's gambling. 2) Why in the hell would you bet on the weather? Do it all the time when it comes to whether we get snow and/or how much. When your TV/Radio as well as most internet forecasts always downplay these events leading up to and in some cases into an event I figure I have an Ace in the hole because I have this site to follow. Of course I did get burned with the Dec 26/27 th event with my neighbor. Missed winning that bet by 50 to 75 miles to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Do it all the time when it comes to whether we get snow and/or how much. When your TV/Radio as well as most internet forecasts always downplay these events leading up to and in some cases into an event I figure I have an Ace in the hole because I have this site to follow. Of course I did get burned with the Dec 26/27 th event with my neighbor. Missed winning that bet by 50 to 75 miles to the east. You'd better be cashing in big time, then. Don't get me wrong, I'll make non-monetary bets on the weather, but I don't like the idea of actually placing a wager on something that can really throw you for a loop whenever it feels like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 2) Why in the hell would you bet on the weather? You should do some research into the Iowa Electronic Markets. http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/index.cfm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 You should do some research into the Iowa Electronic Markets. http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/index.cfm trading != gambling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 You'd better be cashing in big time, then. Don't get me wrong, I'll make non-monetary bets on the weather, but I don't like the idea of actually placing a wager on something that can really throw you for a loop whenever it feels like it. Actually do it for the fun of it and normally bet only a dollar or 2. So lets just say I am not getting rich off of my family or friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 trading != gambling We can agree to disagree then. The IEM specifically says traders are gambling on outcomes of current events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We can agree to disagree then. The IEM specifically says traders are gambling on outcomes of current events. All I know is is that there's different laws in place for each Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Is liquor considered a thing of "Value?" If not then its not gambling under VA Law. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Uncertain: not definitely ascertainable or fixed, as in time of occurrence,number, dimensions, or quality. liable to variation; changeable: the weather is uncertain So you can't really argue "uncertain". Chance: the absence of any cause of events that can be predicted,understood, or controlled: often personified or treated as apositive agency: Chance governs all. a possibility or probability of anything happening: a fifty-percent chance of success. The way you framed your game, it might come under the second definition, in which case it is certainly a matter of chance. Even if you successfully argued it came under the first, while you may argue that the cause of the event can be predicted and understood, at best any such understanding is partial, and any such prediction is within a range of possibilities, which actually leads you back to the second definition. And I don't even need to go into "controlled", although I am sure someone will argue that too. In any case, even if you get lucky with the definition of "chance", the code clearly says uncertain or matter of chance, so you're screwed on uncertain. But I'm not a lawyer, so, hey, YMMV. You make a very good point and this is where I was leaning as well. I think it would be interesting to see a court case for this just to see the defendant's argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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