Could La Niña be Colder in East Than Niño During -NAO?

[JBG]

Also, to have a great blocking in a strong la Nina is really rare.

I seem to remember on the old Eastern board someone speculating that the uber-Niña could actually favor cold weather. Now I wonder if indeed a strong La Niña be Colder in East than an El Niño During -NAO?

Over the years the received wisdom has been that La Niña favors bitter cold interspersed with torches, with the winters, on balance, being mild with sub-normal snowfalls, at least i nthe U.S. northeast. I now wonder if, when the NAO is also strongly negative, if the result can be even colder than a typical El Niño because there's simply less warm Pacific water and less warm air from Niño 4 on East. I'm not a meteorologist but would appreciate comments.

[crpeavley]

I seem to remember on the old Eastern board someone speculating that the uber-Niña could actually favor cold weather. Now I wonder if indeed a strong La Niña be Colder in East than an El Niño During -NAO?

Over the years the received wisdom has been that La Niña favors bitter cold interspersed with torches, with the winters, on balance, being mild with sub-normal snowfalls, at least i nthe U.S. northeast. I now wonder if, when the NAO is also strongly negative, if the result can be even colder than a typical El Niño because there's simply less warm Pacific water and less warm air from Niño 4 on East. I'm not a meteorologist but would appreciate comments.

in light of this years winter, i would be eager to hear some met opinions on this matter...

[nzucker]

I seem to remember on the old Eastern board someone speculating that the uber-Niña could actually favor cold weather. Now I wonder if indeed a strong La Niña be Colder in East than an El Niño During -NAO?

Over the years the received wisdom has been that La Niña favors bitter cold interspersed with torches, with the winters, on balance, being mild with sub-normal snowfalls, at least i nthe U.S. northeast. I now wonder if, when the NAO is also strongly negative, if the result can be even colder than a typical El Niño because there's simply less warm Pacific water and less warm air from Niño 4 on East. I'm not a meteorologist but would appreciate comments.

Yes, this definitely makes sense...the strong La Niña and +QBO favors a stronger/colder than normal PV...this could consolidate colder air into the area if a major blocking pattern is present like the -NAO we've seen this year.

[stormguy80]

The lesson from this winter is that in the northeast, the NAO and AO phases are probably bigger factors in determining cold and snow than the ENSO phase unless the ENSO is super strong one way or the other in which case the NE tends to get below normal snow with both these extremes. ENSO always gets all the hype in the lead up to winter with people saying "its a La Nina so X will happen" or whatever. This is probably because its easier to predict in advance. In terms of your specific question, not really sure but it could be the case. I think a weak La Nina with a strong - NAO would usually give a colder winter than a - NAO with a moderate (average) El Nino. '95-96 had this combo of weak La Nina / strongly -NAO and look what happened. Not sure though about a strong La Nina...they tend to want to focus most of the cold in the west and even now we are seeing the present La Nina fight to take control of the pattern and focus the long wave farther west than its been. BTW, worst combo = strong La Nina with strongly +NAO...that one spells bitter cold and sunny followed by mild rain then back to bitter cold and dry - repeated all winter! story of my life growing up in New England in the late 80s

I seem to remember on the old Eastern board someone speculating that the uber-Niña could actually favor cold weather. Now I wonder if indeed a strong La Niña be Colder in East than an El Niño During -NAO?

Over the years the received wisdom has been that La Niña favors bitter cold interspersed with torches, with the winters, on balance, being mild with sub-normal snowfalls, at least i nthe U.S. northeast. I now wonder if, when the NAO is also strongly negative, if the result can be even colder than a typical El Niño because there's simply less warm Pacific water and less warm air from Niño 4 on East. I'm not a meteorologist but would appreciate comments.

[JBG]

The lesson from this winter is that in the northeast, the NAO and AO phases are probably bigger factors in determining cold and snow than the ENSO phase unless the ENSO is super strong one way or the other in which case the NE tends to get below normal snow with both these extremes. ENSO always gets all the hype in the lead up to winter with people saying "its a La Nina so X will happen" or whatever. This is probably because its easier to predict in advance.

I was presuming that the unpredictability of NAO has led to relative lack of media attention to it though this winter the mainstream press has finally given it the limeliight.

In terms of your specific question, not really sure but it could be the case. I think a weak La Nina with a strong - NAO would usually give a colder winter than a - NAO with a moderate (average) El Nino. '95-96 had this combo of weak La Nina / strongly -NAO and look what happened.

95-96 was snowy but, except for a period in early January and early March, not spectactularly cold.

BTW, worst combo = strong La Nina with strongly +NAO...that one spells bitter cold and sunny followed by mild rain then back to bitter cold and dry - repeated all winter! story of my life growing up in New England in the late 80s

Was "your life" in this days only the winter of 1988-9 and perhaps its "after-effects" during La Nada 1989-90?

[A-L-E-X]

I seem to remember on the old Eastern board someone speculating that the uber-Niña could actually favor cold weather. Now I wonder if indeed a strong La Niña be Colder in East than an El Niño During -NAO?

Over the years the received wisdom has been that La Niña favors bitter cold interspersed with torches, with the winters, on balance, being mild with sub-normal snowfalls, at least i nthe U.S. northeast. I now wonder if, when the NAO is also strongly negative, if the result can be even colder than a typical El Niño because there's simply less warm Pacific water and less warm air from Niño 4 on East. I'm not a meteorologist but would appreciate comments.

I remember we have talked about this frequently, you and I (even before this winter showed its hand), and if you look at the list of the strongest la ninas, they seem to be particularly snowy and cold. It's just in the recent phase, when you couple mod and strong la ninas with positive nao, that you get the awful winters that we had in the late 80s and late 90s.

[tacoman25]

I remember we have talked about this frequently, you and I (even before this winter showed its hand), and if you look at the list of the strongest la ninas, they seem to be particularly snowy and cold. It's just in the recent phase, when you couple mod and strong la ninas with positive nao, that you get the awful winters that we had in the late 80s and late 90s.

I certainly did not expect this winter to be as cold as it has been in the East. However, several times on the old eastern board this past fall, I pointed out that the strongest Ninas did NOT tend to be blowtorches...a number have actually been pretty cold for not only the NE, but much of the nation overall.

I don't think there has ever been a strong Nina winter as cold in the SE as this winter, though. Virtually no SE ridge to date, except one week in late November.

[A-L-E-X]

I certainly did not expect this winter to be as cold as it has been in the East. However, several times on the old eastern board this past fall, I pointed out that the strongest Ninas did NOT tend to be blowtorches...a number have actually been pretty cold for not only the NE, but much of the nation overall.

I don't think there has ever been a strong Nina winter as cold in the SE as this winter, though. Virtually no SE ridge to date, except one week in late November.

I think we have to dig up the older analogs (and hope theyre reliable lol), like 1892-93, 1916-17 and 1942-43 (just going by memory here), all of which featured very cold and snowy conditions. Looks like the NW is going to get in on the fun soon So hopefully we can all share in the wintry weather. 1955-56 would be the most "recent" analog I would use and perhaps March will end up like it did in 1956. March 1893 also ended up snowy and cold.

[JBG]

I certainly did not expect this winter to be as cold as it has been in the East. However, several times on the old eastern board this past fall, I pointed out that the strongest Ninas did NOT tend to be blowtorches...a number have actually been pretty cold for not only the NE, but much of the nation overall.

I don't think there has ever been a strong Nina winter as cold in the SE as this winter, though. Virtually no SE ridge to date, except one week in late November.

I think we have to dig up the older analogs (and hope theyre reliable lol), like 1892-93, 1916-17 and 1942-43 (just going by memory here), all of which featured very cold and snowy conditions. Looks like the NW is going to get in on the fun soon So hopefully we can all share in the wintry weather. 1955-56 would be the most "recent" analog I would use and perhaps March will end up like it did in 1956. March 1893 also ended up snowy and cold.

Could it be that when a Niña is both strong and basin-wide, it contributes enough cold air of its own to eliminate torches and contribute to snowy conditions?

[nzucker]

Could it be that when a Niña is both strong and basin-wide, it contributes enough cold air of its own to eliminate torches and contribute to snowy conditions?

The decrease in global temperatures may be somewhat of a factor, considering we're about 1.1F cooler than last winter globally right now, but this probably isn't the biggest reason.

I think the main cause of cold and snowy weather here is really high-latitude blocking, whether it be the EPO, AO, or NAO. We had a block over Greenland for all of December and early January, and now we have been enjoying a block over AK and the Pacific, keeping Canada cold with the polar vortex close by. I believe this is the main reason we've had a cold/snowy winter, and proof that ENSO is only a small determinant of weather patterns here. Even with a strong La Niña, we've seen Miller A snowstorms and record cold in the Southeast.

[JBG]

I believe this is the main reason we've had a cold/snowy winter, and proof that ENSO is only a small determinant of weather patterns here. Even with a strong La Niña, we've seen Miller A snowstorms and record cold in the Southeast.

Couldn't agree more.

I think we've lacked an appropriate sample size of strong La Niñas to draw from. When you pump in 19th Century and early 20th Century La Niñas you get a very different result than when looking at blowtorch years like 1988-9 and 1998-9 as typical.

[A-L-E-X]

Couldn't agree more.

I think we've lacked an appropriate sample size of strong La Niñas to draw from. When you pump in 19th Century and early 20th Century La Niñas you get a very different result than when looking at blowtorch years like 1988-9 and 1998-9 as typical.

Agreed, the three strongest ninas on record from the late 19th century and early 20th century all featured snowy and cold.